Busby outpaces GOP pack, falls short of outright win

San Diego Union Tribune ^ | April 12, 2006 | John Marelius

[cold666pack]

Busby outpaces GOP pack, falls short of outright win

Republican Bilbray appears headed for June 6 runoff election By John Marelius UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

Democrat Francine Busby speaks at her Election Night party at the D Street Bar and Grill in Encinitas. SAN DIEGO – Democrat Francine Busby easily led the field of 18 candidates seeking to replace disgraced former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham Tuesday and will face a June 6 runoff, apparently with Republican Brian Bilbray.

Bilbray, a former San Diego congressman, clung to a slim lead over businessman Eric Roach with most of the ballots tabulated.

The returns showed Busby, a member of the Cardiff school board, running far ahead in the special election but well short of the majority she needed to win the Republican-leaning 50th Congressional District outright.

Tuesday night the battle for the runner-up spot quickly settled into a contest between Bilbray, and Roach, a wealthy Encinitas businessman who spent more than $1.8 million of his own money.

Three other Republicans – former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian, state Sen. Bill Morrow and businessman Alan Uke – finished in the middle to high single digits and out of the running.

The seat for the 50th District, which covers a number of North County cities and northern communities of San Diego, became vacant when Cunningham resigned as he pleaded guilty to tax evasion and conspiracy charges stemming from the acceptance of $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors.

Busby celebrated Tuesday night with supporters at the D Street Bar and Grill in Encinitas and said in an interview her strong showing in the district confirmed that voters were more interested in cleaning up Washington than in partisanship.

“My message wasn't about Democrats,” she said. “It was about all of us really trying to change the way Washington works. Stop the pay-to-play system and the corruption that we all experienced, unfortunately, with Cunningham. And I think that's what Americans want.”

Busby and her supporters had held out hope she could win the seat outright by receiving a majority of the votes cast in Tuesday's special election, but she acknowledged that it was not likely to happen.

“The message I have is the one that has resonated with people here and I feel very confident going into June,” she said.

Even with the outcome of the race for the Republican slot in the runoff unclear, some candidates were complaining about the willingness of Roach, who began the race as a political unknown, to spend so much of his personal wealth.

Neither of the leading Republicans was prepared to declare the race over, even with most of the election day votes counted.

“Twenty-five years of local service and all the local officials' support seemed to have matched $2.5 million,” Bilbray said at the Republican election party at the San Diego Marriott Del Mar. “It's gratifying to see, no matter the outcome of the race.”

Roach was unapologetic, saying he needed to spend his money to get what longtime elected officials such as Bilbray already had – familiarity with the voters.

“To be able to have a fair fight, your recognition has to be equal,” Roach said. “It was only a fair fight last week and now it's about message.”

Roach was not optimistic late Tuesday night about overtaking Bilbray but was not ready to concede defeat either.

“I'm concerned,” he said. “It looks like it will be tough to make up the extra. I think it will be a day or two before anyone really knows.”

Voting was light in Tuesday's special election, but results trickled in Tuesday night.

The process of replacing Cunningham is a complicated one.

That is because the June 6 runoff election to decide who serves out the rest of Cunningham's term through the end of the year will be held on the same day as the regular state primary election, when party nominees for the next full term, beginning January 2007, will be chosen.

The candidates of each political party who received the most votes Tuesday will be on the June 6 runoff ballot. That means a probable lineup of Busby, Bilbray or Roach, Libertarian Paul King and independent William Griffith.

But most of the 18 candidates from Tuesday's election will be on the regular June primary ballot competing for their respective party nominations – although it is unclear if any of Tuesday's also-rans will continue campaigning.

The 50th District includes the San Diego communities of La Jolla, Clairemont and Mira Mesa, runs up the coastline to Carlsbad and then inland to San Marcos and Escondido.

By voter registration, it would appear safely Republican territory. Only 30 percent of the voters are registered as Democrats, compared with 44 percent registered as Republicans.

But the 50th District has an independent streak that adds an element of unpredictability because nearly a quarter of the voters, 22 percent, are not affiliated with any political party.

Cunningham, 64, announced his resignation from office Nov. 28 after pleading guilty.

In a plea agreement with federal prosecutors, he admitted to accepting more than $2.4 million in bribes for steering lucrative contracts to favored defense contractors.

Last month, the former eight-term Republican congressman was sentenced to eight years and four months in federal prison. Prosecutors had asked for the maximum 10-year sentence under his plea agreement, but U.S. District Judge Larry Alan Burns cited the former Navy pilot's heroics during the Vietnam war in imposing the lighter sentence.

Before that, in June, The San Diego Union-Tribune published a Copley News Service story that reported defense contractor Mitchell Wade took a $700,000 loss on the purchase and resale of Cunningham's Del Mar-area house while the congressman, a member of the powerful defense appropriations subcommittee, was seeking tens of millions of dollars worth of contracts from the Pentagon for Wade's company.

Cunningham acknowledged at the time that the deal might look a little peculiar, but added, “My whole life has been aboveboard and so this doesn't worry me.”

From there, his career unraveled with remarkable speed.

The U.S. Attorney's Office, FBI and a federal grand jury launched simultaneous investigations. Within weeks, federal agents searched Cunningham's house in Rancho Santa Fe and Wade's office and yacht in Washington.

On July 14, the noose had already tightened enough for Cunningham to announce that he would not seek re-election.

By November, prosecutors had built such an overwhelming case that Cunningham chose to plead guilty in San Diego federal court and resign.

“This was a crime of unprecedented magnitude and extraordinary audacity,” U.S. Attorney Carol Lam said in court.

Afterward, a tearful Cunningham said, “I broke the law, concealed my conduct and disgraced my high office.”

Busby challenged Cunningham in 2004, running in a district deemed hopelessly out of reach for a Democrat. Cunningham was re-elected by 22 percentage points – a rout by any measure, but the second narrowest margin of victory for a Republican House member in California, where districts were meticulously redrawn for the benefit of incumbents of both parties.

As Cunningham's troubles mounted, Busby found herself the object of national attention from Democrats, who where hoping to take advantage of the most favorable political climate in a decade or more to win the 15 seats they need to regain control of the House.

Despite her ascension to the top of the national Democratic Party priority list, Busby did not acknowledge her party affiliation in her television ads, given the district's Republican tilt.

When Cunningham said he would not seek re-election, Busby was already the consensus Democratic candidate. Morrow, Kaloogian and Uke soon jumped in to fill the void on the Republican side.

With Cunningham's plea and resignation in November, the slow-developing 50th District campaign abruptly shifted into high gear.

Bilbray, who represented the South Bay in Congress for six years during the 1990s, entered the race. He was later joined by Roach and businessman Bill Hauf, who made up for their political anonymity by financing major television advertising campaigns out of fortunes earned in business.

By March, the candidates had spent $5.7 million, making it clear that the 50th District race would become one of the most expensive House races in history.

Ethics and immigration have been the dominant issues, almost to the exclusion of everything else.

The Washington lobbying scandals proved a tailor-made issue not only for Busby but for political novice Republicans Roach and Hauf, who regularly chastised the ethical lapses of their own party.

But it was a significant burden for Bilbray, who registered as a lobbyist shortly after losing his 2000 re-election race to Democrat Susan Davis.

Roach sued unsuccessfully in an attempt to force Bilbray to list himself on the ballot as a lobbyist rather than his preferred designation of “immigration reform consultant.”

As a lobbyist for the Federation of American Immigration, which advocates stringent border policies, Bilbray made immigration the central theme of his campaign, as did many of the other candidates. Often, the candidates seemed to be jockeying at forums to see who could sound the toughest.

The Republicans stressed stronger border enforcement and stronger penalties for people who are in the country illegally as well as for the employers that hire them.

Busby backed the immigration plan sponsored by Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., that would set up a temporary-worker program and put many presently illegal workers on a track toward eventual citizenship.

The campaign turned predictably testy in the final week as the Republican Party sought to assure that Busby would not win the election outright and as Republican candidates elbowed each other for second place in hopes of a runoff.

The National Republican Campaign Committee ran ads seeking to undermine Busby's ethics stand by highlighting campaign contributions she had accepted from lobbyists and government contractors.

Busby fired back that donations to the NRCC from Cunningham and scandal-tainted former House Republican leader Tom DeLay of Texas contributed to the financing of the ad.

Bilbray, who compiled a relatively moderate voting record during his six years in Congress, was hammered by a mailer from the conservative California Republican Assembly branding him as “a Democrat posing as a Republican.”

Rival Republicans certified Roach's status as a top-tier candidate by ganging up on the wealthy businessman. A Uke ad accused Roach of “selling out America” by making jobs available to overseas workers. And a Bilbray mailer, calling the political novice a “mystery” candidate, assailed Roach's spotty voting record.

[cold666pack]

well, Its gonna be an uphill battle in my opinion for Bilbray, but I hope he can pull it off.

[DM1]

why would it be uphill? Busby got 43% or so while the 12 Republicans got 50% or more.

[Patrick1]

The GOP wins this seat with 55% of the vote in the fall. You heard it here first.

[DM1]

Don't they have to run again in June? you would think we should get that margin in the June special election.

[quark]

Bibray is a country club-type 'Pub, but better than the Hillary-like Busby.

[cold666pack]

right.

[DM1]

Remember every seat counts in the house even if the candidate is not exactly perfect. The image of House Speaker Pelosi from Gun Grabbing San Fran scares the $%!t out of me ;)

[cold666pack]

Someone said something clever about Bilbray - He's like re-heated coffee. If you need it, you drink it, but if you can get a fresh cup, you do. I think I agreed at the time.

[Patrick1]

You are correct. The June election is more dicey but regardless in the fall this will be a GOP seat still. Of course of the Dems win in June the MSM will have multiple orgasms.

[DM1]

" Of course of the Dems win in June the MSM will have multiple orgasms."
this is what i am afraid of
we need some good frickin news for a change or at least absence of bad
if we win in June we will accomplish this task and force the MSM to say "well the dems did not win but it was close" as opposed to "Bush and the GOP are doomed because they eat babies as we can see in the loss of this GOP seat"

[Pukin Dog]

Our local media is going nuts this morning, just like they did when Donna Fry won the mayoral primary. They are so in the tank for Busby I had to turn it off for Fox News. Busby was defeated last night, but none of the local media will say so. She has NO CHANCE TO WIN THIS SEAT. NONE. But you would not hear anything like that from our media which has practically crowned her as our next Congressman.

[Southflanknorthpawsis]

The GOP wins this seat with 55% of the vote in the fall. You heard it here first.

Yep, you're right. I scanned the article quickly so I may have missed it, but...........

To a reader out of San Diego area it would appear that Busby is a clear front runner. It would be much more accurate to explain that Busby was one of two Democrats running while there were 14 Republicans,1 Independent and 1 Libertarian. The three other non-Republicans, together, garnered less than 3% of the vote.

Since it is very probable that most of the Republican votes will now go to the Republican run-off candidate, the Republicans will win.

Ol' Francine's taste of victory will be brief and truth will force her back into reality in June.

[Chairman Fred]

Bilbray was my representative during the DIRTPOTUS impeachment process. He was, in fact, on the committee that voted to impeach Wet Willie, and I congratulated him for having the courage to do the right thing. (Yes, Bilbray voted in favor of impeachment.) He paid the price in 2000. Having him back in the House would, overall, be a very good thing.

[John Geyer]

Part of me wants Bilbray to lose, the GOP doesn't need another moderate in its party. I would only support Bilbray if he became a conservative, this is a conservative district, Bilbray isn't a conservative. Bilbray hasn't even worked a day in his life. The GOP is no place for big government, pro-homosexual, pro-choice Republicans.

[John Geyer]

Abortion Issues
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1999-2000   Bilbray supported the interests of the National Right to Life Committee 57 percent in 1999-2000.

1999   Bilbray supported the interests of the Planned Parenthood 55 percent in 1999.

Agriculture Issues
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1999   Bilbray supported the interests of the American Farm Bureau Federation 44 percent in 1999.

Budget, Spending and Taxes
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1999   Bilbray supported the interests of the National Taxpayers Union 54 percent in 1999.

1999  On the votes used to calculate its ratings, the Concord Coalition attaches more value to those votes it considers more important. For 1999, the Concord Coalition gave Bilbray a rating of 64 percent.

Business and Consumers
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2000   Bilbray supported the interests of the Business-Industry Political Action Committee 55 percent in 2000.

2000   Bilbray supported the interests of the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council 86 percent in 2000.

1999-2000   Bilbray supported the interests of the National Federation of Independent Business 66 percent in 1999-2000.

1999-2000   Bilbray supported the interests of the Public Citizen's Congress Watch 40 percent in 1999-2000.

1999   Bilbray supported the interests of the Associated Builders & Contractors 72 percent in 1999.

1999   Bilbray supported the interests of the Consumer Federation of America 33 percent in 1999.

Civil Liberties
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2000  On the votes that the American Civil Liberties Union considered to be the most important in 2000 , Bilbray voted their preferred position 21 percent of the time.

Civil Rights
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1999-2000   Bilbray supported the interests of the Human Rights Campaign 80 percent in 1999-2000.

1997-1998  On the votes that the Campaign for a Color Blind America considered to be the most important in 1997-1998, Bilbray voted their preferred position 75 percent of the time.

Conservative
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2000   Bilbray supported the interests of the Concerned Women for America 57 percent in 2000.

2000   Bilbray supported the interests of the American Conservative Union 68 percent in 2000.

1999-2000   Bilbray supported the interests of the Christian Coalition 50 percent in 1999-2000.

1999   Bilbray supported the interests of the Liberty Lobby 40 percent in 1999.

Environmental Issues
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1999-2000   Bilbray supported the interests of the League of Conservation Voters 73 percent in 1999-2000.

Gender Issues
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1998  On the votes that the National Organization for Women considered to be the most important in 1998, Bilbray voted their preferred position 37 percent of the time.

Government Reform
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1999-2000   Bilbray supported the interests of the U.S. Public Interest Research Group 60 percent in 1999-2000.

Gun Issues
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2000  Based on lifetime voting records on gun issues and the results of a questionnaire sent to all Congressional candidates in 2000, the National Rifle Association assigned Bilbray a grade of F (with grades ranging from a high of A+ to a low of F).

[cold666pack]

msm not able to admit defeat - shocker.

[cold666pack]

you're preachin to the choir - regarding Bilbray's razor thin victory - I can muster a dee do if you can loan me a Whoop. But in the end, I will support Bilbray, ther's just no choice between him or Busby.

[DM1]

Yikes
yeah i would hesitate too with this record
still i just cannot stomach Pelosi so i would hold my nose and vote