oil and gold is running up because of oil country saber rattling.
But inventories are high - high enough to take a hit from the loss of Iran. Don't forget, Canada has become the largest supplier to the US.
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=82189&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28
Among other things - but certainly you are right, that the near term acceleration is due to geopolitical oil worries.
However, I am long on PM's because I think the economic fundamentals of our nation our way out of whack - and it only will take a good sharp whack from any quarter to reveal it. This significant jump is a bit worrying for me - since I plan to jump in with both feet when I have the financial wherewithal - and at the moment...I don't.
Nobody has a crystal ball - and I certainly don't castigate others who hold other prognostications. But there are times when you've got to lay your money on the table according to what you truly believe, and this is certainly one of them.