I'm not a professional politician, but it seems to me, pissing off your base is not a real smart move.
In mid term electins it is absolutely necessary to get out the base. Get them fired up. Alot of independents do not bother. But this year may be different. With immirgration on the table. It is driving many in hte base away and will turn the majority of the independents against whoever supports it.
Sometimes it seems taht way, doesn't it?
Courting the middle won't help if he loses the base.
Allowing millions of new illegals to cross the border so they can vote democrat isn't exactly a winning strategy either.
This guy's whole thesis rests on the assumption that Dole failed in his presidential bid because of his tax cut proposal. I mean, COME ON. Does this kind of idiocy even need to be addressed?
Insightful.
While I agree with a lot of what is printed here (not ideoligcally but cerebrally) I don't believe that Bush is doing these things as "strategery". Karl Rove may understand and push this, but I still think that the President operates more from personal belief than from the political equation.
Many of us do not always agree with his politics, but at least he is not operating from a poll driven agenda. If anyone listened to Hugh Hewitt last nite, he had on a retired general who met with the President in the Oval Office yesterday, and even in the face of his poll #'s and the apparent loss of support for the war, he continues to stand his ground and search for ways to bring liberty to a part of the world that has known little.
Thank God that we elected this man. He may not be everything that we could wish for all the time, but who is?
This thinking is just dopey. The base is much larger than the pool of moderates. And in a midterm, the chances of exciting the moderates is slim to none...
The Republicans are trotting out the "Fair Tax" before the 2006 elections. That will not be nearly enough to calm the base from their illegal invader objections.
More advice from a liberal Democrat journalist, a safe bet, to Republicans. It's always the same: Move Left. And it's always WRONG, of course.
Just what are these guys smoking, anyway?
The GOPers need both the Conservative Base and the Moderate Middle to win. The author's 3-4 IQ points away from an ear of corn.
Tradesports.com has the GOP losing control of the House in the 2006 elections. That number is the lowest I've seen all year.
I still think the GOP will retain control, but by the hair of its chinny-chin-chin, if you know what I mean.
Viva the House Republicans!
"My belief is that Dole’s plan marginalized him in the minds of many voters. Critics in the mainstream press characterized it as irresponsible and likely to increase the deficit."
If this guy thinks that Dole was not elected because he rolled out some tax plan then he his analisys isn't worth crap. Dole was old and unexciting to the base. A throw away candidate that was put up for election as a duty to loyalty rather than someone who had ideas to lead.
These guys that think you can piss off your base and not get it from your constituants he is a fool.
The problem with Mr. Hill's logic is that he seems to assume that President Bush's base will turn out in similar numbers no matter if he appeals to the base or runs to the left. It was clearly demonstrated in 1992, 1996, and 2000 that a significant portion of the base will "sit it out" if they do not feel the party is governing to the right.
I think he's right. There's more than one "base." I consider myself part of W's base, but I'm clearly out of step with the anti-immigration crowd. For one thing, I'm not sure I'll vote for Santorum this fall. Based on some of his recent mouthings on the port deal and immigration, I've become quite blase' about the man. I'll definitely not vote for Rep. Peterson (though he doesn't need my vote to win this district).
I think Bush & Rove have mistakenly assumed that the illegal invader issue (please don't call it immigration) only affected the border states, which Bush lost anyway with the exception of Texas, where the GOP is safe. What they failed to see is that the illegal invaders have penetrated the entire country, and have hit a major nerve in the GOP voters.
Add to that the idea that John McCain is diametrically opposed to the conservative viewpoint on border protection and you have a large block of voters who have been hung out to dry.
This guy actually has a record with some credibility, but I wonder how he got it. In his article Hill writes that after Dole's loss:
"I recall doing some post-election analysis in suburban Detroit counties. It was clear that even young conservative families, many that would have richly benefited from the child tax credit that Dole proposed, were uninspired. They didn’t even bother to go to the polls."
What an inside-the-beltway chucklehead. Doesn't this guy learn? Tax cuts are important, but so are other conservative issues that Dole failed to adopt to motivate the base. The lesson for Hill should be that Dole lost becuase he did not motivate his base enough, not that he should abandon it.
And just to keep everyone informed, from Hill's polling business web site:
http://www.hillresearch.com/index.htm
Well known political clients of the firm have included:
- Former Vice President Dan Quayle
- Elizabeth Dole
- Jeb Bush
- Katherine Harris
- Tom DeLay
And his profile
David B. Hill, HRC Director, received his Ph.D. from The Florida State University in 1975. His graduate studies included the prestigious methodology training program at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. Dr. Hill spent ten years as a faculty member at Kansas State University, Florida Atlantic University and in a tenured position at Texas A&M University where he also served as Director of the Public Policy Resources Laboratory and founding Director of The Texas Poll. In 1984, he became a principal in Tarrance, Hill, Newport & Ryan before founding his present firm.
In 1991, CAMPAIGN magazine named Dr. Hill the second most effective major political consultant overall, and best political pollster in the nation. In addition, CAMPAIGNS & ELECTIONS magazine named him one of its 1991 class of "Rising Stars" in American political campaigns. CAMPAIGNS & ELECTIONS singled him out as one of the "Big Winners" of the 1998 campaign election cycle, as well, for directing Peter Fitzgerald's victory over Carol Moseley-Braun in the Illinois U.S. Senate race.
A scholar as well as a campaign operative, Dr. Hill is the author or co-author of many academic journal articles as well as well as a book, chapters in books and monographs. He is a member of the editorial advisory board of THE PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE, a publication of The Roper Center at the University of Connecticut.
Dr. David Hill writes a weekly column on polling and campaigns for The Hill, a newspaper for and about the United State Congress.