Posted on 07/10/2006 11:23:47 AM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
Next weekend's meeting between President Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin before the Group of Eight (G-8) summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, will likely mark a new post-Cold War low in U.S.-Russian relations.
Naturally, both sides will try to put a "happy face" on the Bush-Putin meet - witness attempts to paper over the troubles with a newly-proposed nuclear-cooperation agreement. But serious disagreements remain over key issues, ranging from North Korea to Iran to energy security.
While we should seek Russian cooperation wherever possible, it's time for Bush to have a heart-to-heart with Putin about the state - and future course - of U.S.-Russian relations.
Bush has hustled to improve bilateral bonds - holding an early summit with Putin in 2001, pursuing a close personal relationship with "Vlad" and even defending the Russian leader before a rising chorus of Western critics. Unfortunately, this hasn't paid off.
Putin's preference this weekend will be for ceremony and photo-ops celebrating Russia's G-8 "coming out" - not for dealing with tough policy matters. Bush, on the other hand, has a weighty to-do list to raise with his host.
With last week's missile salvo, North Korea now tops the agenda. Expect Bush and other gathered leaders - particularly Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi - to press Putin over his "go easy, go slow" approach on North Korea at the United Nations.
Of course, Putin may counter that, beyond the Security Council, Russia has little direct influence over North Korea. Pyongyang was a Russian protégé during the Cold War, but now the relationship is mostly limited to nostalgia about the good old days.
But Putin does have pull with Iran. Moscow sells Tehran billions in conventional arms, and assists Iran's nuclear program. Unfortunately, though, Russia is running the same interference at the United Nation for Tehran as it is for Pyongyang.
Going along with Uncle Sam isn't Putin's only reason to act here. While a nuclear North Korea isn't a threat to Russia, a nuclear Iran could certainly feel emboldened to export fundamentalism to Russia's soft-underbelly in Central Asia - or, worse yet, Chechnya.
Meanwhile, most everyone is antsy about Russia's growing energy prowess. Russia is the world's No. 2 oil exporter - and holds 65 percent of proven global natural-gas reserves.
Energy today is what the Red Army was during the Cold War: the source of Mother Russia's strength. With oil at $75 a barrel, and demand anything but softening, vast energy resources makes Russia a major power again.
In recent months, Moscow has expressed its displeasure with the politics of some its customers by cutting supplies (Ukraine) or raising prices (Moldova). Vice President Dick Cheney used a May speech in the Baltics to hammer Russia for wielding oil and gas as "tools of intimidation and blackmail."
It's ironic that the G-8, a grouping of leading industrialized democracies, is being held in St. Petersburg at a time when Russia is clearly retreating from democracy.
Today, Czar Vlad, and his like-minded friends, the siloviki ("powerful ones"), are calling all the shots in Russia, especially on the economy. They're also clamping down on democracy-oriented activist groups and the press - no doubt concerned they'll stir up revolutions like those that took shook Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan.
Putin's certainly not softening his approach on the eve of the summit. Just last week - days before Bush's arrival - Putin banned Russian radio stations from carrying the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. No challenging the political establishment allowed, comrade.
So what does Putin want? Great-power status, basically: The Russian prez, a former KGB colonel, longs for the glory that was once the Soviet Union's. And one way he can raise Russia's status is by merely playing spoiler to America's international agenda.
What can Bush do about it? Some argue Bush should focus on areas of possible cooperation, such as the new nuclear agreement or supporting Russia's World Trade Organization accession to rebuild the floundering relationship.
Others contend that it's time for a tougher line - more stick, less carrot. That years of using the "gentle touch" hasn't got us much in terms of advancing democracy and free markets in Russia or resolving the radioactive North Korea and Iran issues.
Of course, taking a hard line has downsides, too. It could drive Moscow into Beijing's orbit, creating a powerful anti-American bloc - and foregoing the possibility of any cooperation with the U.S. on Iran, Korea or energy security.
But one thing is for sure, we're dealing with a new Russia. This isn't Boris Yeltsin's "Do everything to make nice with the Americans" Russia. This is Putin's Russia: bitterly proud, nationalistic, awash in "black gold" - and more willing than ever to challenge American supremacy.
I would love to be a fly on the wall at that meeting.
Bush should run up to "Pooty-poot", raise his shirt, and kiss him on the belly...
I am a fervent anti-communist and wouldn't trust the Russkies as far as i could throw them. However, I also believe in a sovereign nation's right to act in their own best interest. Why shouldn't Russia use their resources to their best advantage. We wouldn't need their black gold if we weren't fighting a Fifth Column from within. "Environmentalists" (self loathing Americans) block our ability to compete and become self sufficient at every turn. If we don't do something about it soon, we are going to be in a world of hurt. I think it's going to take a gallon of gas reaching $ 4.00 before the libs can be beaten over the head with their policies and we can ram home some sensible policy.
What I find discouraging is that as the price of gas goes up, Bush's approval ratings go down. Stupid people blame him, not the dems and their environNAZIs, for gas being in high demand vice supply.
Sometimes I hope they'll get what they want. Go ahead, elect Algore, and then see how much gas will cost you, IF you can find any. Then I remember I have to live in the same world with these bozos.
All we can do is talk and educate. Rise in gas prices is caused by scarcity while demand is high. Lighten demand (don't drive, or drive a yugo) or increase supply (start drilling). Screw the dolphins. I don't care if that makes Hootie cry!
if I was Bush, my first question to pootie would be, "Hey Vlad, you've got two nuke-armed nutjobs on your borders, what are you gonna do about it?"
If they are in his back pocket, which is where they seem to be. Probably Nothing.
What really drives me nuts is living in the NE and listening to all the libs complain about home heating costs.
Putin is still a cunning KGB agent, it's hard for him to change his ways.
Of course, Putin should do what he thinks best for Russia. That's his job. But I doubt whether the best thing for Russia is to fund terrorists, sell weapons to rogue nations, poison his neighbors, or keep poking the US in the eye with a sharp stick. The US is a more useful ally than Iran or North Korea.
This is a very short-sighted course of conduct. IMHO, it works against Russia's best national interests.
I have heard this theory and I am more and more inclined to believe it.
Russia pretends on the world stage to oppose American interests. That gains them trust with enemies, such as, Iran and North Korea, and they gather valuable intelligence that they pass on. Plus Russia will never want to openly appear to be too pro-American, it's just in their nature. All I can say is, what you see on the surface may not necessarily reflect reality when it comes to Russian-US relations.
If Vlad runs into the arms of Hu Jintao he's going to find himself China's "punk" and I mean that in the penitentiary sense. There's been plenty written recently on China's unofficial expansion into depopulated siberia.
Bush should pull a Reagan.. after the meeting just approach the podium and say the nuking will begin in 10 minutes.. LMAO
You wouldn't have to do that, if you lived in Texas or Oklahoma. Intrastate trade isn't subject to federal regulation. It's possible to produce, refine, and sell petroleum products intrastate here.
But I'm definitely ready for some challenges to Congressional mandates on e.g. "clean air". I'll grant their authority to regulate air and water I import from Louisiana, but at some point all this Commerce Clause idiocy that FDR fomented will have to be rolled back, and this business of pushing the States aside for the convenience of this or that political grouping (business, Greens) brought to a halt.
Energy today is what the Red Army was during the Cold War: the source of Mother Russia's strength. With oil at $75 a barrel, and demand anything but softening, vast energy resources makes Russia a major power again.
Well, we wouldn't want to kick Jordan around. King Abdullah is one of the original good guys. Sandhurst, very pro-Western, knows lots of people over here.
As for China, nobody can tell them squat. At least in their own minds. That's what injured pride will do for you.
Actually, I'm in Alabama which is conservative enough. Gas currently is $2.75. It was $2.40 at the end of May.
Anyway, some have never learned certain constants such as
there's no such thing as a free lunch and you reap what you sow. The folks who support the Greens and NIMBY just don't think through the economic consequences.
Shrewd comment. In the longer run, and Putin knows this, Russia is going to need the West just a whole lot. He'll need, at a minimum, good relations with the West to keep the Germans off his back while he deals with China and the Central Asian republics.
Most of his snit toward the U.S. reflects U.S. demarches from '90's policies put in place by Bush 41, specifically with regard to not moving NATO to the east (we weren't going to, and then we did, and U.S. troops are in Armenia).
What good proposing instead that some of those Eastern European republics follow a "Finlandization" policy instead, we can't know now.
Uh, yeah. Guess you've seen that giant Battle Flag someone raised right by I-65 north of Monkeytown. Might pass by it myself sometime this summer, who knows.
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