[starbase]

This is a thought provoking piece. Unfortunately I'm not expert in the number of different histories which one would need to be in order to expound on his theory.

I was, however, left unconvinced that Al Sistani's withdrawal from political life equates to the imminent demise of Islam. I was very interested in the obsessive biological rules of Islam, and wanted to read more, and to understand better just what impact losing that degree of obsessiveness would have on Islam.

The fact that Muslim extremists can develop even among second and third generation immigrants would imply that the loss of the bum-washing rules won't bring Islam itself crashing down anytime soon.

But perhaps a widespread angst, together with a realization that there really isn't just one way to live, might make changes that will lead to a collapse of forced Islam, which is very nearly synonymous with the collapse of Islam itself.

[Tallguy]

I was, however, left unconvinced that Al Sistani's withdrawal from political life equates to the imminent demise of Islam.

A simpler explanation is that Iraq now has a functioning central government. What need is there for a Shia Holy Man acting like a Medieval Pope? None. So Sistani withdraws into his proper (modern) role as a religious leader -- nothing more.