I understand Henry...kinda. I mean, he won because of a fluke 3-way race in 2002, and since then, he's done nothing to offend anyone (read: he's done nothing), and Oaklahoma is the #1 state for Reagan Democrats. There are still a bunch of populist leaning Conservatives that would like to vote D if the D isn't too nuts, and Henry seems like the perfect guy, especially seeming as how he can't vote for a nutjob for Speaker or Majority Leader.
Sibelius is a bit puzzling, but while she'll probably win, she's not running THAT far ahead. Also, Sibelius is a very good looking woman and Napalatano is...not. Frankly, Napalatano looks like the biggest hit at the Lesbian Pride Parade. I don't have any reason to believe she's gay, but she looks it.
I read that Sebelius was the compromise candidate between Dems and liberal Republicans, which apparantly make up a large part of the KS electorate.
Someone I know personally used to work with her and they told me she was definitely gay.