Posted on 10/01/2006 8:33:40 AM PDT by Alex1977
VIENNA : Austria's opposition Socialist Party was narrowly ahead in the general election on Sunday, according to the first exit polls.
The Socialists had 35.8 percent of the vote to 35.3 percent for Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel's conservatives, the ORF state television prediction said. - AFP/de
We are looking forward to read the "real" data.
1/2 of a percent is not a statisticaly important lead in any way shape or form. If the left jimmied this exit poll like they did in our election in '04 it should be a comfortable win by the forces of decency.
Just a further note: it seems that the sum of all the forces "on the right" (moderate conservatives and extreme right) will be ahead. The "forces of decency" have won.
Call me curious, but how many live threads on the Austrian general election are you going to post?
The socialists (Democrats) are said to be ahead in America too. The hype is that they will win control of the House. I think not.
The Democrat part is kaput. The only way Democrats can win is by massive voter fraud or by military coup.
So much for the land down under (under Germany, any way) if the Socialists win.
If not, then "gut auf Sie"!
and what will you say if the polls are correct?
actually the offical results show the socialists with an even larger vistory than the exit polls predicted. I guess the "right" jimmied the polls huh?
According to the exit polls ...
People's Party - 35.3 percent
Nationalist Party - 4.2 percent
Freedom Party - 10.5
TOTAL FOR RIGHT: 50 percent
Socialist Party - 35.8 percent
Green Party - 9.8 percent
TOTAL FOR LEFT - 45.6 percent
4.4 percent scattered among parties that will not be represented.
The "iffy" thing is whether the National Party will get the 4.0 percent in the actual vote needed for representation in Parliament.
With the actual vote (except absentees) ...
People's Party - 34.2 percent
Alliance (Nationalist) Party - 4.2 percent
Freedom Party - 11.1 percent
TOTAL FOR RIGHT - 49.5 percent
Social Democrats - 35.7 percent
Green Party - 10.5 percent
TOTAL FOR LEFT - 46.2 percent
other voted for parties that will not gain representation in Parliament.
In other words, the right won the election, although the Social Democrats were the largest single party.
By tradition, the largest single party will try, first, for form a majority coalition. Obviously, a coalition only with the Greens will not work. They might try to offer a grand coalition with the People's Party, or they might try to bring in one or both of the right-wing parties.
The latter option is not out of the question. In New Zealand, Labor brought in a center-right party as a junior partner, shifting a bit to the right, in order to freeze the Liberal-National Party out.
However, I think the most probable thing is that the three right-wing parties will lock-arms and cause the Social Democrats to fail to form a majority coalition. In such a case, it then falls upon the second largest party to form a ruling coalition, which would then be People's + Future + Freedom.
With the large vote received by the Freedom Party, this means Austria will shift a bit to the right, most importantly, to a lower tax / less regulated economy, and to more traditional social values and less accomodation of immigrants.
Score another one for our side.
The strategy used by the Democrats actually started in Eastern Europe after the fall of the USSR when the Communists could no longer control the candidates and the outcome.
First, claim the other side is going to commit election fraud, what they plan to do themselves.
Next, write many articles in the media about how the left is going to win.
Do phony push polls to validate the outcome.
Do early exist polls and declare victory.
When the outcome is different and they lose, demand a recount or two.
Challenge in court.
Throughout the term of the elected administration claim they stole the election and are therefore illegitimate.
We saw it here in 2000 and 2004. It is happening in Mexico now. It is the MO of the left.
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