What Does the Money Tell Us About Tuesday? (RCP predicts Dems win the House)

RealClearPolitics ^ | 11/2/06 | Cost

[pabianice]

That gives us the following number of party seats where the other side is offering a viable challenge...

Model 1 – Average 2004, Corrected for CPI Inflation: 23 Republican seats, 6 Democratic seats.

Model 2 – Average 2004, Not Corrected for CPI Inflation: 27 Republican seats, 6 Democratic seats.

Model 3 – Minimum 2004, Not Corrected for CPI Inflation: 39 Republican seats, 7 Democratic seats.

Model 4 – Median 1996, Corrected for CPI Inflation: 48 Republican seats, 6 Democratic seats...

[pabianice]

Short version: Cost expects the Dems to pick-up 17-42 House seats.

[roses of sharon]

Anyone voting for the Commie-Vampires should be ashamed.

[musikman]

VOTE AND PRAY, PRAY, PRAY.

Prove them WRONG, WRONG, WRONG.

"Greater is He that is in you than he that is in the world."

[100-Fold_Return]

"Cost expects the Dems to pick-up 17-42 House seats."

Then, why post the dimwits hacks, for cying out loud??! No conservative blogs on the internet?

[catholicfreeper]

I am not sure he is saying that. Especially since that would be a 180 from what he said just last night. I think he thinks at worst the Dems will have a non functional majority in the House

[Crawdad]

When is someone going to write an article about how all polling has gotten exponentially worse over the last few election cycles and how polling, as we know it, will cease to exist on November 8, 2006?

[catholicfreeper]

Actually his article is good. He is just trying to show show what Seats are up truly in play.

[daviddennis]

After reading the article, that doesn't seem quite right. He has told us which races are likely to be highly competitive, but has not told us what the probability of the seats actually changing hands is.

He says that if there is a 40% chance of them changing hands, there is only a 25% chance of the Democrats taking the house. If there's a 60% chance, then there's a 73% chance of them taking it.

In the end, he says there is so much "cloudiness" that he really can't determine what will happen. All he can do is illuminate the battlefield by telling us which races are in play. What that really meanas about probabilities of success in these races is anyone's guess, due to the overall inaccuracy of much polling.

D

[LibLieSlayer]

Even Barone admits that he thinks today's PUBLIC polls are wrong. If the data is wrong, the analysis is also wrong.

LLS

[100-Fold_Return]

"Actually his article is good. He is just trying to show show what Seats are up truly in play."

You can trust them if you choose...

[Niteranger68]

GIGO

[concerned about politics]

In 2004, I thought Real Clear Politics was a far left wing kook site. The dems were creaming us in a landslide. I even stopped checking it because it was all dem all the time.
Since then, I don't pay much attention to that site. There's something that doesn't feel right about it. It's like they always give the dems "the benefit of the doubt", but immediately write off Republicans when someone in the country sneezes.

[catholicfreeper]

I think one also has to look at his very informative article yesterday to get a sense of where he is at. I am impressed with Cost. He was very accurate in 2004. He is also Republican friendly without seeing evertything with Republican rose colored glasses.

That being said there seems to a anti poll mentality among conservatives. Well that is kinda of silly since we use polls as a important part of the mix. I am not sure what has got people so alarmed. It seems that the polls are indicating a reality. Talent won his last race by 21.000 votes. But people go into a seizure when his opponent goes one point ahead. Even though that is in the margin of area. Can anyone say that they think the Webb/Allen polls are truly wrong. I dont think so since we can start to take some averages. Does that mean Allen is going to lose? NO because still in the margin of error and we do have the Republican GOTV advantage. That is what will save us in Tenn I am convinced even though I am convinced Harold Ford is slightly underpolling there.

Its going to be a long night but I feel good so far.

[Patrick1]

That is not what the article says. He doesn't make a prediction. He states the loss of seats could be anywhere from 12 to 25. And states there is no wave. This seems realistic since the GOP has decided to give the Democrats six to eight seats through corruption and stupidity before anyone even votes.

See Delay's district, Foley's district, Ney's district and Kolb's district as just four examples.

[RoseofTexas]

Gallup call TWICE in a month and TWICE I didn't answer!!

[BohDaThone]

I think you are way off base. RCP is basically conservative leaning (i.e., covers all conservative news stories, along with some liberal ones), its own bloggers are usually conservative, and it simply does a great job of compiling and organizing all the polling, etc data. It doesn't vouch for the polls, it just lists them. If you look at their 2004 pre-election polling compilations, it got just about every state right, That's not their own analysis, simply putting out what the published ones said.

If you go back and look at the overall pre-election polling, it was pretty darn good. The exit polling is quite a different matter.

[concerned about politics]

I think you are way off base. RCP is basically conservative leaning

Maybe. When I went there years ago, dems were being given the edge no matter what and Republicans weren't. That's what I saw. Polls were democrat heavy. Rather than base predictions on an average, the slanted polls were used as fact.

One poll being reported this election was 41% democrat heavy but the news ran with it without mentioning that very important fact.

[olrtex]

I suspect you are wrong about Delay's district and Foley's district. I believe the Republicans will hold Foley's seat and might even win Delay's seat. Even some of us so-called "dumb Texans" can remember "Shelley Sekula-Gibbs."

[KenmcG414]

These races will get tighter between now and Tuesday. Kerry's pronouncement has not helped the RATS. Notice Burns in Montana has closed the gap and the Bush Man is out there today.

[verity]

I predict we will know the outcome on Wednesday.

My margin of error is +/-.000000000000000000.