Posted on 12/29/2006 11:19:41 AM PST by ecurbh
Pundits who have written off Rudy Giuliani are nuts. As he explores a 2008 bid for President, Giuliani sits atop the Republican pack in most polls - with support that will not quickly erode, despite his stance on some social issues.
But look who's right there with him in pole (and poll) position: another Republican with the gift of gab and a reputation for independent thinking. Enter Arizona Sen. John McCain, every bit as intelligent and irascible as Giuliani. These two good friends - both of whom appeal to moderate Republicans - are on a collision course for the nomination.
Differentiation is Job One of a successful presidential aspirant, and Rudy knows this. As a wordsmith, I have enjoyed watching him begin to draw distinctions between himself and McCain - claiming in a recent radio interview that "I'm more firmly committed to tax cutting than he is."
If he's going to outmaneuver McCain in the quest for the hearts and minds of a very demanding and often fickle Republican electorate, Giuliani will need to do much more of that - more than he might be inclined to consider. If I were advising his campaign (which I am not), here's what I might suggest.
Giuliani must begin by understanding that McCain has one advantage that no other Republican hopeful can match: a love affair with the American media. One reason why McCain has generated significant support outside the GOP is because of labels like "maverick" and "outsider" that those in the media use to express their approval, even as they harm him among the party faithful.
That is Giuliani's first, best opening: He's an outsider, and unafraid of The New York Times editorial page (an applause line in Iowa and New Hampshire). Though McCain may not sound like one or act like one, he's been a Beltway Republican, part of the Washington establishment for almost two decades. Giuliani can score considerable points by acknowledging McCain's willingness to buck the political system while subtly reminding Republicans of McCain's participation in that very system.
This leads to Giuliani's second great advantage: New York. While McCain is in Washington, a city of hearings and roll call votes, Giuliani is the embodiment of a city back on its feet. There was a time when being a New Yorker at a GOP convention was about as popular as being Dr. Kevorkian at an AARP convention. Times have changed, and so has the city.
In 1993, his campaign team wouldn't let me stay on Eighth Ave. because they were afraid that I (and my polling data) would be mugged. Today, I have an apartment on Eighth Ave. - and it's a great neighborhood. Even Giuliani's biggest detractors give him credit for cleaning up an ugly, ungovernable city. John McCain has tried to clean up politics, but he has no such visual accomplishment to whet voters' appetites.
That brings us to Giuliani's third big weapon: the triumvirate of results, success and solutions. My polling and focus groups make clear that Republican voters are not looking for the kind of "revolution" that swept their party into Congress in 1994. On the contrary, they are looking for what George W. Bush promised to be in 2000 - a "reformer with results."
If Giuliani can present himself as that man, he can win the nomination. It may open up a temporary rift in his relationship with McCain - but that can always be healed by offering the senator a spot on the ticket.
Stranger things have happened.
rudy is eventually going to have to address the "contentious" positions he has. he should start with abortion - his position should be that he supports constitutionalist judges, and if Roe is eventually deemed unconstitutional - then so be it, abortion will not be made illegal, but will return to the States. and that's OK.
After four years of a Repulican President thumbing his nose at fiscal conservatives, I can't see nominating a man who thumbs his nose at social conservatives.
Here's hoping we can find a Republican that can beat both of them.
Rudolph Giuliani is Mario Cuomo's protege. I think he would be an excellent nominee in 2008 -- for the Democratic Party.
you cannot bow down and appease a fickle group, when that group alone cannot elect a president. you can outline some positions to get as many of them as you can onboard, point out what they will get from the Dems (nothing), and leave yourself able to get the independent voters who decide the election.
Well said.
Wrong characterization. What McCain has been willing to buck is the President, and the Constitution.
As a New Yorker, I think Ann Coulter's advice was very sound. She said Rudy should just say that he was mayor of the Soviet Union. OF COURSE he had to be liberal on social issues. But he should re-state his positions now.
ping
alot of those social conservative seem to like Obama - is there a single position that Obama would advance (with more then words), that social conservatives want?
Who's your alternative. There is none.
You cannot embrace the murder of innocent unborn children, gun control, amnesty to illegals, homosexual marriages, etc. and expect the conservatives to vote for you, either. Rudy loses in this one.
he's not going to flip and become pro-life, it would be disingenuous anyway. but you can be for judges who would toss Roe, and return abortion to the states. and that's the best case outcome that could be acheived, even if Brownback were elected president.
Just what we need, two more moderates.
Here they come!!!
Wrong again. No one on this conservative website has endorsed any such thing. Barack Saddam Hussein Obama is ultra liberal, and does not appeal one iota to social conservatives. If you are referring to Rick Warren's endorsement of him, Warren is far from a social conservative. Go back and research your facts.
as a practical issue, the pro-life movement has as its #1 goal - overturning Roe. that gets accomplished with constitutionalist judges.
empower the people to decide the issue at the State level, through their elected representatives. there is never going to be constitutional amendments banning all abortions and banning the States from deciding gay civil unions. even if a Brownback/Gary Bauer ticket were elected president, that wouldn't happen.
That's fundamentally what I'm hoping Rudy will say (and mean). But of course, he also needs to explain why he made the Island of Evil a sanctuary city for illegals, his position on the Second Ammendment, Gay Rights, etc.
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