[Excellence]

Truly, a beautifully-written review. Go to Amazon.com and read the forward of the book. If I understand what I have read so far, this book would help tear apart the "knowledge" behind the climate models, which cannot even "predict" the past.

[Publius6961]

The author, Mr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, has an impressive c.v.

I just had to check it out because a) I was certain that he has an arabic or near Arabic name, but.

b) I was more certain that his book could not have been written by someone who grew up among muslims, or educated as a muslim, nor living even remotely in a muslim-controlled environment.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

Thank you for posting this. I will be adding this book to my collection. It sounds like he has managed to explain clearly something I have sensed but have been frustrated as how to communicate.

[maica]

I ordered this book this morning as soon as I read the Wall Street Journal editorial.

It is the answer to anyone who thinks they can predict the future! Like ferinstance, democrats who know what social security will be like 25 years from now.

[Oztrich Boy]

What does this have to do with black swans?

[who_would_fardels_bear]

If you are slightly faster than all other runners you will tend to win every race ... not just slightly fewer.

If your business model is slightly better than that of all your competitors you will eventually get most of the customers ... not just a few more.

If you look at undirected things such as average heights of humans then you will get average bell-curve results.

If you look at directied things such as people wanting to pay the lowest price or companies wanting to run at the lowest cost, then you will often get non-linear feedback.

If taller people were generally more desirable and it was relatively easy to control your height, then not even height would not follow a bell-curve.

[Murtyo]

just getting done listening to it on CD. Very interesting. Ideas that I think lots of us have had. I’m going to listen to it again though. Although he repeats himself, his ideas are counter-culture (in the broadest sense), maybe even counter-nature, that I have to listen / read parts of it several times for his ideas to sink in.

I love the fact that he rips into all the social sciences so much.

[eyedigress]

I always thought the Bell Curve related to the relationship of XsubC vs XsubR.

[neverdem]

thanks, bfl

[LowCountryJoe]

In late April (2007), Taleb was interviewed by Russ Roberts in a hour long Podcast where Taleb discusses a few key ideas in his book. You can go here to listen to this Podcast and you can also read comments from people who had listened to it.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

I'm sorry, anyone working with modeling of physical processes characterized by random variables is perfectly aware of the limitations of assumptions of linearity and stationarity, as well as the entire issue of model adequacy. In spite of the somewhat dismissive tone of the article, where linearity, stationarity and normality ("Gaussian-ness") apply they work superbly. The fact that some people become infatuated with their models at the expense of common sense (or more correctly lose sight of the underlying assumptions) says more about human hubris than any flaws in the models.

This criticism, such as it is, of classical analysis rings tinny in my ear. It reminds me of Lucy van Pelt telling Linus "If Beethoven's so great, why isn't his picture on a bubble gum card."

Which is precisely why Beethoven isn't on a bubble gum card and Gauss' name will be remembered long after Mr. Taleb has passed into well deserved obscurity.

[Tax-chick]

bttt

[SShultz460]

I liked the book a great deal. However, anyone familiar with conservative arguments or policy will not learn much new. It will reinforce much of the way you view the world.

I called it the anti-Secret. But I really liked it