SPEAKER'S RACE IS FOR REAL; CRADDICK PLEADS TO GRASS ROOTS: SAVE MY JOB

SPEAKER'S RACE IS FOR REAL; CRADDICK PLEADS TO GRASS ROOTS: SAVE MY JOB posted by Paul Burka

I received this e-mail this morning as a comment submitted to the blog in response to my post of yesterday, "87 Votes."

Craddick's scared--here's an email his team sent out this weekend to Republican leaders:

There is reportedly a movement in the House to call for Speaker Tom Craddick to vacate the chair. This move would greatly empower the Democrats in the next election by taking out the number one fundraiser for the House and the only one who can connect effectively with the party and with grassroots. Make no mistake -- this is not about Craddick and is all about the majority. The members listed below may or may not be holding firm w/ the Speaker.

Would you please help find anyone who is voting against the Speaker or who is riding the fence? Please let me know asap what you can find out. The list below is where the problems are suspected. While a speaker's race is off limits for outside organizations, this is different. A motion to vacate the chair is not a speaker's race and organizations should be under their normal rules.

Latest word is the confirmation that if they can get the votes, they definitely will do this and probably Monday and no later than Thursday.

Fred Brown John Otto Byron Cook Kirk England Dan Gattis Mike Krusee Bryan Hughes Gary Elkins Todd Smith Bert Solomons Harvey Hilderbran Dennis Bonnen

If any of these names are your Rep. please contact them and let me know where they stand. If your REP. is not on this list call them and tell them to please back the SPEAKER he has been a great help to the County Chairman's Association in getting our Legislation passed.

I talked to Mr. Wallace this morning to confirm that he did, indeed, send out this e-mail. He confirmed it, adding that someone else had sent it to him and that this is part of a general effort. Wallace is the legislative chairman of the Texas Republican County Chairman's Association.

We are now entering uncharted territory: a speaker's race in the last two weeks of a legislative session with the entire legislative agenda on the table. Remember this moment, folks. This is history. No one has ever seen anything like it; no one may ever see it again. posted by Paul Burka at 6:44 AM

The Quorum Report
Editor: Harvey Kronberg
P.O. Box 8 Austin, Texas 78767
Voice: 512-292-8191
Fax: 512-292-0099
Email: kronberg@quorumreport.com
May 14, 2007 9:25 AM
ã Copyright May 14, 2007 by Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved
HK: WILL THE HOUSE MOVE TO VACATE THE CHAIR?
Return of January playbook lends urgency to decision-making
Lets be clear from the outset. As of today, there is no consensus candidate to replace Speaker Tom Craddick should he be removed from the chair.
Lets be equally clear. The Speaker is wounded, perhaps mortally. It is not very difficult to build a list of opposition from the 68 votes on the Geren amendment last January combined with the 87 votes to over ride the ruling of the chair last week.
The House is in disarray. Friday’s floor activity devolved into little more than shouting matches as the quorum slowly evaporated. The Speaker has not been in the chair much as he attempts to shore up his support.
The speakers race playbook from January appears to be back in full force. Some members report Craddick and his lobby allies are threatening them with the $4 million in the speaker’s office holder account being used as a club to threaten possible rebels with primary or general election opponents. At least some GOP county chairs have been notified that they need to start beating the drum on Craddick’s behalf (Burka posted one of their emails this morning), characterizing any insurgency as a Democrat coup. The expectation is the precinct chairs will be engaged. Conservative grassroots, both real and faux will start weighing in shortly.
(As we have written before, pointing the finger at Democrats is a red herring, albeit an effective one for the base. Given the fractured nature of the House, neither Craddick nor any Republican opponent can win or govern without some Democratic support.)
But the problem with the January playbook strategy is that it reinforces every impulse on the floor to rebel. The drumbeat has increased the urgency to replace the speaker because the sixty-eight members that supported Geren’s secret ballot amendment last January know they are fair game in the next election cycle. The eighty-seven that voted against Craddick on the appeal of the ruling the chair know they too are fair game.
If Mr. Craddick remains in the chair after sine die, allies and adversaries believe he has the luxury of time and a high turnout presidential year do try and reshape the House more to his liking.
The key last January was the five chairmen. Readers will recall that the race was close and that five chairmen were scheduled to call a press conference immediately prior to the session to announce their support for challenger Pitts. It was an all or none deal. One bolted at the last minute and the deal collapsed, handing the speakership back to the incumbent. Had the press conference taken place, most believe it would have turned the tide and sealed the deal for Pitts.
The key in May is still the chairmen. Those that were around six years ago watched the chairmen operate as a team and defend each other. This year, no chair’s bill has been safe on the floor whether it is Warren Chisum, Phil King, Sid Miller or Sylvester Turner. Important bills are routinely being re-written on the floor.
Even some hard core Craddick supporters including chairs are unhappy and question whether he can restore equilibrium to the floor. They are the leadership team. If a substantial number bolt and publicly commit to vacate the chair, the game is over
But while fear and anger drive the backroom discussions, there is also a sober assessment underway that suggests that at least some of conversation may be less about personality and more about governance. The more serious and sober chairmen and members are not going to move without some sense of what the future looks like.
One of the big questions is not who a replacement speaker would be. It is about what happens on Day 2, after a coup.
Are some committee chairs like Calendars and Local and Consent replaced ? What happens with the Legislative Council and the Legislative Budget Board? What would happen with the current chief of staff and operational staff? Would the Craddicks be expected to leave the apartment the next day? How does a change in the chair affect the conference committees?
The chairmen and senior members of the House also need to know how a new speaker would return the institution to the more stable times of the 90s.
In some regards, the days immediately after an insurrection would more important than the event itself because it will define the insurgents as either serious about representing districts or anarchists taking over the asylum. Perceptions in the 72 hours after vacating the chair could define the rest of the session and the election cycle to come.
A new speaker would have to make the public case that unseating the incumbent during a session is about restoring order and representative government to the House. And of course, as soon as it would be legally possible, the new speaker would have to start raising money to defend his Republican and Democratic supporters from a possible assault.
Ironically, should the primary be moved to the first week in February, a new speaker’s mission of defending his incumbents would be dramatically easier.
There is also talk of suspending the rules to pass last minute legislation limiting the uses of a former speakers campaign account or even requiring that he return it to contributors.
We have no idea if the move to vacate the chair will crystallize.
This is not a trivial popularity contest. It is very serious stuff.
ã Copyright May 14, 2007 by Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

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