Posted on 08/17/2007 8:18:37 PM PDT by FightThePower!
Let me cover the big picture. I do think we're approaching the end of the world as we know it…I think there is such thing as the business cycle. It exists. And we've had the longest expansion - and the strongest expansion - in the world history. But we're at the end of a 25-year boom. It's gone on more than a full generation now. And I'll tell you how it's going to end: It's going to end with a depression, and not just a depression; not just another Great Depression; it's going to be the Greater Depression.
What's a depression, incidentally? It's a period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated; that's called a depression. Over the last 25 years, distortions and misallocations of capital have produced an artificial boom. But when these distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated, we'll get a depression.
Another general definition of a depression is this: a period of time when most people's standard of living goes down significantly. Now, for the long run, there's no question in my mind the standard of living of everybody on earth is going to go up immensely over the next hundred years. Immensely. But that doesn't mean that we're not going to have setbacks, and I think we're looking at one: A severe standard of living drop. So the economic picture is not going to be good…
So what should you be doing about all this? I suggest you really internationalize yourself. I think what you ought to have is your citizenship in one country, your bank account in another country, your investments in a third, and live in a fourth. You've got to internationalize yourself. Most people out there are like medieval serfs, psychologically and physically: they're born some place, they don't go very far from it and that's where they die, and they're going to get exactly what they deserve. Well, you can't be that way. I think you ought to treat the world as your oyster.
What am I doing about this? I've been all over the world. I guess I've lived in 12 countries now. And out of 175, I've been to most of them, numerous times actually. What am I doing, where do I want to go, where am I living?
Well, in New Zealand. I went there a few years ago for the polo, actually, and the reason was that playing polo there was about 10% what it cost me in Palm Beach, and I liked it better. So we bought a lot of real estate. But since then, the currency has doubled and the real estate within that currency has doubled at least. So I'm getting out of New Zealand. Where am I going now? I'm going to Argentina.
And let me give you a tip, okay? Forget about Europe, it's going to become a petting zoo. It's like Disneyland with real stones instead of paper Mache stones. I mean, Europe is on the slippery slope. I wouldn't touch Europe with a ten-foot pole. If this war with Islam gets out of control, Europe is going to be an epicenter. It's going to be a disaster. I'll tell you where you ought to look. Argentina is the place to be. It's the cheapest country in the world. It has low population, incredibly beautiful, the climate is great. One hundred years ago, it was in competition with the US for being the best place in the world and the richest place. But it went downhill radically, radically.
But let me tell you something. It's turning around I think. And what's going to happen is driven by the fact that everything in Argentina costs between 10% to 30% of what it costs in North America. That's correct. It's that cheap. It's free. It's free. It's free for us as North Americans. But the Europeans really think it's free with that strong Euro. So you're getting a massive immigration from rich Europeans that can see the handwriting on the wall and like it down there. And I really like it down there. It's just a great society, great society, great place to hang out, prices are right. I mean this can solve most of your investment problems right there, just by transplanting yourself, if you've got some capital. Furthermore, Argentina is going to be insolated from WWIII to a good extent.
Hope to see you down there!
The Great Depression was perhaps the most overrated financial disaster in history. Sure, unemployment was higher than average and people lost money in the stock market. Still, the vast majority of people were unaffected by the Great Depression.
So, this guy should take some Prozac and go to bed.
What a load of codswallop. No depression will be forthcoming.
Nor will we have any economic setbacks unless major nations elect numbskull socialists who destroy our respective economies. And even then, someone like Hillary can do great damage but America’s supertanker economy will keep rolling along.
Unemployment was also HIGHER in 1940 than when Roosevelt first took office.
I think I would go to Singapore or Hong Kong and maybe Switzerland.
They are expensive.
But in a depression, law and order breaks down and Singapore and Hong Kong and Switzerland take law and order very seriously.
They also have state of the art infrastructure and technology and have some level of English proficiency.
“Sure, unemployment was higher than average”
US unemployment hit 25%, and total economic output in 1937 was lower than 1929.
Since FDR was president from 1933 on wards and the economy didnt fully recover until WWII, we need to blame him for the fact that it was the “Great Depression” and not the “short Depression of 1930-1932”
I think a life on the Pampas is overrated.
This stock market hiccup has revealed a huge amount of raw selfishness and greed. This guy is quite selfish, too. I don't see him noting the conditions of places where it'll cost him 10 cents on the dollar to pay people for their goods and services. Or why it costs 10-1 here.
Why does there need to be all this intervention to bail the greedy few? Let the market correction do just that.
I keep asking my baby boomer friends: who's going to buy their over-priced stocks when they ask their mutual fund managers for a distribution? Not me, thank you. They have no clue.
So what should you be doing about all this? I suggest you really internationalize yourself. I think what you ought to have is your citizenship in one country, your bank account in another country, your investments in a third, and live in a fourth. You’ve got to internationalize yourself.
Rignt now there is a world-wide production glut of epic proportions. If the bottom falls out, most things will get a lot cheaper (TVs, cameras, etc). Cash will be king. If you’ve got $$ in the bank, you’ll be fine. If you’re living on credit, you’re probably in trouble.
Actually, thinking about it, a Depression might wring a lot of crap out of society that has been building up since 1960.
The sky is falling because he can't get polo ponies cheap any more? Sounds like he's trying to convince us to move to Argentina so he can clean up on real estate down there.
Criminals in the streets. Everyone losing everything. It was as though the world had come to an end.
Was the trouble exaggerated or was there an incredible turn around?
On the other hand, the sun has been coming up in full glory for years now. It is time for it to stop.
Children & minorities hardest hit.
Unemployment was at 25%. Around a third of American banks failed. My father lived through the Depression and his impression of how bad it was is decidedly different from yours.
“a Depression might wring a lot of crap out of society that has been building up since 1960.”
A depression is just what we need to straighten out 3 generations that can’t manage money or prioritize within a limited budget.
Nothing else will teach them to not live on credit.
FDR illustrated exactly how socialism works. It spreads the misery of a few to everyone except the elites.
Still, the vast majority of people were unaffected by the Great Depression.
So, this guy should take some Prozac and go to bed.
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You should take something and quit babbling like a damn fool, you have no idea what you are talking about.
BS.
this guy sounds like my tv-moron neighbors.
after 12 hours of tube they are depressed and angry and fearful.
they all say the world is coming to an end.
burp.
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