>>When Reagan ran, the NH Primary was the first week of March. There’s every indication that this time it will be moved up to December of 2007. Furthermore, Reagan had nearly won the nomination in ‘76, and so was already well known and vetted. It isn’t 1980, Carter isn’t in the WH, and Fred Thompson is no Ronald Reagan.<<
Its not like Thompson is wasting this time - he’s shuffling his team, lining up big donors and getting face time in Iowa.
The NH Primary is most likely to get moved up by 8 weeks while Thompson is likely to announce 6 weeks earlier than a traditional November late entry, like President Reagan’s.
A 2 week narrower window isn’t a big deal if his team is already on the ground. If Thompson gets the nomination, does anybody think the Republican establishment will fail to fund him equally with the Democratic nominee? He’s fine.
The NH primary has been moved up at least twice since Reagan ran. November hasn't been "traditional" for years. Sept. declarations have been the last entries, and they were few and far between in the last three election cycles, with March through June more typical. Even Bush, running unopposed in 2004, announced in May, 2003.
I know that this has been the conventional wisdom talking point among the Fred Fans, but it just isn't true. I looked up the candidate entry dates for 2000 and 2004 a couple of weeks ago. Look here for 2000 and here for 2004.