There's very little to gain from declaring now. He's got the name recognition. He's getting himself established on the issues without exposing himself to the crap shoot of the debates. The FEC and CFR have no say over him until he declares.
After 7 years of a politically tone deaf administration it's refreshing to see someone that can actually play this game.
I hope you are right, because right now it's the bottom of the ninth with two out and the count is 0-2 on The Fredster. If he doesn't get on base he's done.