Posted on 09/05/2007 7:01:40 AM PDT by SirLinksalot
National housing prices continued to slide last quarter, dropping an average of 1.5% over the year before, according to the latest report by the National Association of Realtors.
But things are looking up for two-thirds of the country's big cities where median home sale prices rose.
Leading the charge was Seattle, where prices increased 8.9%; in San Jose, Calif., they rose 8.8%; and in Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C., prices jumped 8.3% and 8.4% respectively.
Compare that to Detroit and Cleveland. In these metros, prices fell 7.1%. Skies aren't much sunnier in the West. Median home sale numbers in Sacramento, Calif., Las Vegas and Phoenix dropped 6.3%, 3.6% and 2.7%, respectively.
What Gives?
Economists fault the country's mortgage crisis for these cities' slumping numbers. Those most exposed to fallout from risky loans failed last quarter to post the price improvements that could rejuvenate their markets. Based on figures from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the largest share of the country's risky loans and foreclosures are in California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. In these markets, appreciation for the most part stayed flat or sank.
This means more bad news for already weak markets.
"Significant house price declines constrain options for consumers," says MBA Chief Economist Doug Duncan, of the tightening of credit in home mortgage lending. "Credit markets today on the securitization side have simply stopped other than Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Investors have to regain confidence in mortgage related assets; otherwise much of the market is going to be illiquid."
Taking a deeper look at specific markets also helps explain the numbers.
The Wild West
In Southern California, speculative buying in Los Angeles and San Diego has helped the region become one of the hardest hit by foreclosures. While both posted year-over-year price gains--2.9% in Los Angeles and 0.2% in San Diego--the condo market in both places fared worse: up only 0.7% in L.A. and down 1.4% in San Diego.
In this market, these numbers should be welcomed. But when you look at the area's sales volume, things aren't so rosy.
Between 2000 and 2005, Los Angeles saw average spring season sales rates of 13,000 and 15,000; in San Diego, those numbers over the same time period were between 4,200 and 5,200, according to Radar Logic, a housing analytics and research company.
By the spring of 2006, prices and sales were plummeting. And this spring, sales in Los Angeles were under 5,000 and in San Diego transactions climbed just above 2,000.
This is due to skittishness brought on by the weak housing market.
"It's psychologically hard to take a loss and people will hold on to [a house] longer and wait for the market to stabilize before they sell," says Kermit Baker a senior research fellow at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. "There's no sense that we're near the bottom here in terms of the market beginning to recover. The question is how much stickiness will we see on this downward trajectory."
New York Housing
Understanding which markets are the stickiest--or most resistant to downward pricing thanks in part to robust sales--has a lot to do with understanding what kind of money fueled the run-up of the last five years.
Take the New York metro area, where the $557,500 median home price increased 6.3% last quarter.
"Activity levels in Manhattan are still elevated... Long Island is continuing to slip, but at a modest amount," says Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, a New York-based real estate appraisal and consultancy firm. "In [Long Island] the upper-end market was the market of choice for speculation and tear downs. In [New York City] the market is more closely aligned with Wall Street and bonus compensation."
Where the money comes from dictates stability. Markets where new development was fueled by flippers and investors are more volatile because such buyers are more likely to take out risky loans and to walk away from a property when the market sours.
Not so in the Big Apple. "In New York City … new development was fueled by second home buyers and primary home buyers," says Miller. "There's still a lot of product coming off the conveyor belt, but fortunately the market demand has been there."
Midwest Markets
When you turn your gaze to the Midwest, the issue becomes where the money is not coming from. Based on MBA calculations, Ohio, Indiana and Michigan account for 8.7% of the nation's loans but account for 20% of all loans in foreclosure nationwide. The reason this is happening is because people are losing their jobs and leaving the area.
And this trend should continue into next year.
"We expect another two to four quarter of modest rises in delinquencies," says Duncan. "And foreclosures lag one to two quarters behind that."
http://www.forbes.com/forbeslife/2007/08/16/homes-prices-housing-forbeslife-cx_mw_0816bestrealestate_slide_2.html?partner=yahoo
IN PICTURES: AMERICA's WORST HOUSING MARKET
http://www.forbes.com/forbeslife/2007/08/16/homes-prices-housing-forbeslife-cx_mw_0816worstrealestate_slide_2.html?partner=yahoo
IN PICTURES : AMERICA's MOST AFFORDABLE HOUSING MARKETS
http://www.forbes.com/forbeslife/2007/08/01/homes-affordable-property-forbeslife-cx_mw_0802realestate_slide_2.html?partner=yahoo
LOWER THOSE INTEREST RATES 100 BASIS-POINTS YESTERDAY--IF NOT SOONER~!~!~!~
Last month, I was in the Fort Myers area of Florida.
The housing market down there has totally gone into the toilet.
You drive down residential streets and I swear you see at least 2 For Sale signs on every block.
All the builders have laid off lots of their staff, both office and field.
I get the distinct feeling that no one down there (builders, realtors, etc) ever thought the market would crash. Or if they did know it, they kept pushing it to the back of their minds.
—booms bust—
Sow the wind, reap the ...
Just keep the @#$)*@&$))$_@-39(39! government out of it!
Yes, it can be worse.
Lived in Fort Myers for nearly 15 years. Saw this coming believe it or not in 2001. Spouse and I gave up good jobs at large firms in Naples to “Get the h@ll out of Lee County”! Fort Myers and the developers in Lee & Collier county built themselves into a glut. Illegal immigration is awful there as well. Gangs are the norm now.
At the time the market was growing at a good steady rate and our home sold in less that 2 weeks. Bought into the market that was just starting to build in Seminole County and viola! Home here has nearly doubled in value. Problem is even if I wanted to move, I couldn’t afford to buy another home in this area.
I’ve seen that happen to quite a few blue collar friends.
Well I wouldn’t say a 2,800 sq. ft. house on half acre is exactly blue collar, but to buy a comparable home would cost nearly 1 million in my neighborhood and nearly 2 million down the street on the golf course. I’m not paying that kind of mortgage regardless.
But yes your point is quite valid. And our little county is crying foul because less and less children are enrolling in the public schools. Guess that’s always the trend when you price young working families out. Also, the county is nearly built out so no new lower priced housing except for apartment/condo conversions. Then all you’re getting is a $250,000 ++ 2 bedroom apartment home of about 1,100 sq. ft. Oh, well.
But the nice thing about the florida housing market is, a good chunk of people need to buy new houses every few years — after their previous homes are destroyed by hurricanes. :-)
If you let a lot of illegal immigrants into an area, and the gangs follow, that’s going to depress the housing market no matter what else is happening.
Who wants to live in a gang-infested neighborhood with illegal immigrants stacked two-deep in rental properties?
I saw it coming in 2000 when I looked around the neighborhood schools. I promptly enrolled our then kindergartner into private Christian School, then urged my spouse to submit resumes to a head hunter. When the right job came along six months later we were out of there! The engineering firm where I worked were shocked when all they got was a two week notice from me. Had to go!
Yep, if everybody in a neighborhood is sending their kids to private school or homeschooling, it’s probably a good sign the houses aren’t going to appreciate much.
I was about the happiest fellow when my home was on the market for 1 week and had 3 offers.
Hurricane Charley tore up our house but just rebuilt and the rest is history. Kinda miss fishing off the dock in the backyard, but Texas is just fine for me.
Schools are great and for the most part people are friendly and polite. The crime is lower and the criminals go to jail ..... and die.
In Southern California, Los Angeles and San Diego, both posted year-over-year price gains--2.9% in Los Angeles and 0.2% in San Diego
bump for later read
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
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Really? I retired at fifty on real estate profits. Investment property rentals keep my life chugging along pretty well. What am I doing wrong?
IN PICTURES: AMERICA's BEST HOUSING MARKET
IN PICTURES: AMERICA's WORST HOUSING MARKET
IN PICTURES: AMERICA's MOST AFFORDABLE HOUSING MARKETS
His conclusion: There is no 'safe haven' . . . Sort of Echoes Ivy League Economist Robert Shiller, doesn't he? Oh, well . . .
Shiller: 50% Housing Value Declines are “Entirely Possible”
Excerpt: “US homes may lose as much as half their value in some US cities as the housing bust deepens, according to Yale University professor Robert Shiller.”
“The examples we have of past cycles indicate that major declines in real home prices — even 50 percent declines in some places — are entirely possible going forward from today or from the not too distant future,” Shiller said in a paper presented last Friday at the Federal Reserve Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.”
“Because price gains were larger and more widespread this time compared with past speculative booms, the risk of “substantial” price declines is greater, wrote Shiller.”
“He said that 50 percent declines in the worth of some cities’ homes wouldn’t be unprecedented. Prices in London and Los Angeles fell by almost that amount from the late 1980s to mid-1990s.”
“US house values, in constant or real dollar terms, rose 86 percent from the end of 1996 to early 2006, the peak of the most recent housing boom, Shiller said. Economic factors such as rents and construction costs don’t appear to explain the jump in prices, suggesting “speculative thinking” and a “boom psychology” was at work. “Extravagant” expectations for future price increases since the late 1990s fueled the bubble, Shiller said.”
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_1011005.shtml
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Just wait until the Federal Regulators discover what was really going on with Wall Street’s repeated, fraudulent mortgage derivatives sales !! Wait ! They already know all about it and want to do it again:
Regulators Urge Refinancing of Securitized Mortgages
There is a very good reason why these mortgage derivatives are not even worth 10 cents on the dollar. There also is a good reason why hedge funds are dropping $$$ billions in value every week. The cat is out of the bag . . .
Just makes me want to Laugh Out Loud. "Great idea!, Hack ! Hack, cough !" Refinancing mortgage securities will just add more complex disinformation and confusion to the toxic mix. LOL ! LOL ! Want to learn more? Really ? . . . Oh, well.
~snicker~
I remember when Punta Gorda was just a small town with mostly retirees, some mobile home parks and a few fish camps. Charlie devastated many homeowners there. Glad you recovered and were able to rebuild. Some of the areas were never allowed to with the new zoning/flood plain requirements.
Good luck sir and feel free to visit. The fish always biting!
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