My advice ... don't wait too long.
Posted on 09/12/2007 10:40:32 AM PDT by qam1
We have published several editorials on the subject of global warming and, in particular, on the likely resultant rise in sea levels – a subject that ought to be of more than a little concern to a largely low-lying country like the Cayman Islands.
However, everything we have written on this topic has been met with a deafening silence as to any contingency plans in this respect.
As we have pointed out before, the conventional wisdom in respect of the timescale of the far-reaching environmental effects of global warming is continually being overtaken by new scientific measurements and observations.
A case in point is the report last week that the Arctic ice cap has collapsed at an unprecedented rate this summer and levels of sea ice in the region now stand at a record low.
Indeed, experts said they were “stunned” by the loss of ice, with an area almost twice as big as Britain disappearing in one week alone. If the increased rate of melting continues, the summertime Arctic could be totally free of ice by 2030 – an event almost inconceivable for most of us.
According to scientists, the Arctic has now lost about a third of its ice since satellite measurements began 30 years ago, and the rate of loss has accelerated sharply since 2002.
Why should this matter to us here in the Cayman Islands? First, the loss of Arctic ice will add to global warming generally, because of the loss of reflectivity of the ice, which results in more of the sun’s heat being absorbed by the sea. This will have far-reaching climatic changes – including the increased melting of other huge land-based ice caps, notably in Greenland and Antarctica.
Second, there is a common misconception that the floating ice of the Arctic won’t increase sea level when it melts. However, this does not take into consideration the difference in density between fresh water and salt water. Thus, when freshwater ice melts in the ocean, it contributes a greater volume of melt water than it originally displaced.
One scientist has demonstrated that melt water from sea ice and floating ice shelves could add 2.6 percent more water to the ocean than the water displaced by the ice, or the equivalent of approximately 1.57 inches of sea-level rise.
Third, a far greater rise in sea level is expected simply because of thermal expansion as the sea absorbs more heat from the sun. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, up to 1 meter of sea level rise is projected by 2100, with half the rise attributed to melting ice and half to thermal expansion.
And this date of 2100 is one of those earlier projections that is being rapidly overtaken by events.
Another scientist says, “If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate.”
Another major factor is the likely effect of global warming on the Greenland ice sheet, which is the largest land ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere. It holds enough fresh water to raise the earth’s sea level by 24 feet if it were to melt completely, a result expected if the regional temperature rises 3 degrees Celsius. Scientists project that temperatures will pass this threshold by 2100.
A one-meter (slightly more than three feet) rise in sea level would be difficult for the Cayman Islands to cope with. A 24-foot rise would, of course, be catastrophic.
We raise this issue once again, not to cause any unnecessary fear or alarm, but to try to find out what, if anything, is being done here to assess the impact of the projected rise in sea level. For example, have any steps been taken to study the effects of different, and incremental increases?
For example, do we know how much of Grand Cayman’s land mass will disappear with a six inch rise in sea level, with a one-foot rise, with a three foot-rise, and so on?
Factor in the effect of spring tides on top of a higher sea level, or a major hurricane-generated tidal surge as experienced with Ivan and we will be looking at some very serious problems here.
Once again, we ask the question: is anyone other than Cayman Net News paying attention to this scenario - that is not so much a case of if, but when?
My advice ... don't wait too long.
The climate is changing.
Always. Constantly.
It’s the natural cycle.
The Arctic sea-ice melts, the sea level goes down (easy experiment with a couple of ice cubes in a glass of water). Open arctic sea, more snow on Greenland’s glaciers and Europe (“lake effect” - more albedo), and the sea level goes down. Caymans have nothing to worry about.
Get some flood insurance.
Hillary!08 said Change is good.
Its hard to get excited about something you hear or read about everyday. After a while it gets old and boring. The Global warming nut cases have overplayed their hands and now the general public is no longer interested.
Another scientist says, “If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2010, or 2008 maybe. But now I think that this evening is a reasonable estimate.”
The guy must be a prophet...
BTW, could this 6 mo cooling period be... AUTUMN AND WINTER?
I predict a strong cooling trend from October through March in the northern hemisphere. There could be snow and ice in many areas.
That is likely. Then after about six months of that, it will start to cool down again.
Weird how it always seems to work out that way. We should hav scientists look into that.
We shouldn’t talk about “inconceivable” here on a family oriented web site. We know it has to do with birth control though.
Some people say more severe winters are a result of global warming. They say there’s more moisture or turbulence in the atmosphere, etc. So you could see more severe winter storms.
Geez, Al Gore has this all figured out doesn’t he? If there’s hot weather, then it’s global warming. If there are cold stormy winters, well, then because of global warming and atmospheric instability, then, the winter storms are caused by the same thing.
Someone should ask them why the Vikings named it “Greenland.”
We have, over 500 say global warming is junk science.
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/news_press_release,176495.shtml
Cry me a river
Oh this is terribly worrying. I believe the Cayman Islands are one of those places where Bill and Hillary stash their dough. Whatever will they do if it sinks?
They don't have topographic maps in the Caymans?
Where I come from, it’s called fall and winter. :)
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