Posted on 09/12/2007 10:40:32 AM PDT by qam1
We have published several editorials on the subject of global warming and, in particular, on the likely resultant rise in sea levels – a subject that ought to be of more than a little concern to a largely low-lying country like the Cayman Islands.
However, everything we have written on this topic has been met with a deafening silence as to any contingency plans in this respect.
As we have pointed out before, the conventional wisdom in respect of the timescale of the far-reaching environmental effects of global warming is continually being overtaken by new scientific measurements and observations.
A case in point is the report last week that the Arctic ice cap has collapsed at an unprecedented rate this summer and levels of sea ice in the region now stand at a record low.
Indeed, experts said they were “stunned” by the loss of ice, with an area almost twice as big as Britain disappearing in one week alone. If the increased rate of melting continues, the summertime Arctic could be totally free of ice by 2030 – an event almost inconceivable for most of us.
According to scientists, the Arctic has now lost about a third of its ice since satellite measurements began 30 years ago, and the rate of loss has accelerated sharply since 2002.
Why should this matter to us here in the Cayman Islands? First, the loss of Arctic ice will add to global warming generally, because of the loss of reflectivity of the ice, which results in more of the sun’s heat being absorbed by the sea. This will have far-reaching climatic changes – including the increased melting of other huge land-based ice caps, notably in Greenland and Antarctica.
Second, there is a common misconception that the floating ice of the Arctic won’t increase sea level when it melts. However, this does not take into consideration the difference in density between fresh water and salt water. Thus, when freshwater ice melts in the ocean, it contributes a greater volume of melt water than it originally displaced.
One scientist has demonstrated that melt water from sea ice and floating ice shelves could add 2.6 percent more water to the ocean than the water displaced by the ice, or the equivalent of approximately 1.57 inches of sea-level rise.
Third, a far greater rise in sea level is expected simply because of thermal expansion as the sea absorbs more heat from the sun. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, up to 1 meter of sea level rise is projected by 2100, with half the rise attributed to melting ice and half to thermal expansion.
And this date of 2100 is one of those earlier projections that is being rapidly overtaken by events.
Another scientist says, “If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate.”
Another major factor is the likely effect of global warming on the Greenland ice sheet, which is the largest land ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere. It holds enough fresh water to raise the earth’s sea level by 24 feet if it were to melt completely, a result expected if the regional temperature rises 3 degrees Celsius. Scientists project that temperatures will pass this threshold by 2100.
A one-meter (slightly more than three feet) rise in sea level would be difficult for the Cayman Islands to cope with. A 24-foot rise would, of course, be catastrophic.
We raise this issue once again, not to cause any unnecessary fear or alarm, but to try to find out what, if anything, is being done here to assess the impact of the projected rise in sea level. For example, have any steps been taken to study the effects of different, and incremental increases?
For example, do we know how much of Grand Cayman’s land mass will disappear with a six inch rise in sea level, with a one-foot rise, with a three foot-rise, and so on?
Factor in the effect of spring tides on top of a higher sea level, or a major hurricane-generated tidal surge as experienced with Ivan and we will be looking at some very serious problems here.
Once again, we ask the question: is anyone other than Cayman Net News paying attention to this scenario - that is not so much a case of if, but when?
Middle of September and I’m still harvesting tomatoes.
I’ll keep some of this global warming...thank you. :)
it was 50 when i woke up this morning in MI.
One of my more liberal oworkers blamed the local heatwave on GW. My response was "Gee it's hot in August. Who'dve thunk it?". My comment didn't go over well.
Of course, the High Pressure system that caused the heatwave, also caused most hurricanes to go south of us this year. Without that Bermuda High, we'd (likely) have had more moderate temps, but more hurricanes....and the hurricanes would have been caused by.....anyone? anyone?
Weather is hot = Global Warming
Weather is cold = Global Warming
Weather is stormy= Global Warming
Weather is mild, with no storms or problems whatsoever = Worry About Global Warming.
There. I fixed it.
I notice this mental giant also chose to remain anonymous.
Since the Antarctic cap is getting thicker, I ain’t worried about the seas rising.
It was 39F this morning in Aurora, IL, about 35 miles west of Chicago.
Global warming my ass.
Then the bottom of the earth will be heavier and the top lighter.
It's...
Global Tilting
Oh yeah, it's all the USA's fault too!
Especially those who drive SUVs.
"At the current sea-level-equivalent ice-loss rate of 0.05 mm per year, it would take a full millenium to raise global sea level by just 5 cm, and it would take fully 20,000 years to raise it a single meter." pg 150.
We had summer in Texas? Sure could have fooled me. This was/is the year without a summer.
Once again, we ask the question: is anyone other than Cayman Net News paying attention to this scenario
Obviously if the ice on a body of water is interspersed with 15% open water, that does not mean the ice has disappeared.
The definitions are easy to find and apply to the current condition in the Arctic ocean.
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