Ancient Records Help Test Climate Change (We're All Gonna Die)

AP via PeoplePC ^ | 9/15/07 | AP Generic "Reporter"

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

EINSIEDELN, Switzerland - A librarian at this 10th century monastery leads a visitor beneath the vaulted ceilings of the archive past the skulls of two former abbots. He pushes aside medieval ledgers of indulgences and absolutions, pulls out one of 13 bound diaries inscribed from 1671 to 1704 and starts to read about the weather.

"Jan. 11 was so frightfully cold that all of the communion wine froze," says an entry from 1684 by Brother Josef Dietrich, governor and "weatherman" of the once-powerful Einsiedeln Monastery. "Since I've been an ordained priest, the sacrament has never frozen in the chalice."

"But on Jan. 13 it got even worse and one could say it has never been so cold in human memory," he adds.

Diaries of day-to-day weather details from the age before 19th-century standardized thermometers are proving of great value to scientists who study today's climate. Historical accounts were once largely ignored, as they were thought to be fraught with inaccuracy or were simply inaccessible or illegible. But the booming interest in climate change has transformed the study of ancient weather records from what was once a "wallflower science," says Christian Pfister, a climate historian at the University of Bern.

The accounts dispel any lingering doubts that the Earth is heating up more dramatically than ever before, he says. Last winter - when spring blossoms popped up all over the Austrian Alps, Geneva's official chestnut tree sprouted leaves and flowers, and Swedes were still picking mushrooms well into December - was Europe's warmest in 500 years, Pfister says. It came after the hottest autumn in a millennium and was followed by one of the balmiest Aprils on record.

"In the last year there was a series of extremely exceptional weather," he says. "The probability of this is very low."

The records also provide a context for judging shifts in the weather. Brother Konrad Hinder, the current weatherman at Einsiedeln and an avid reader of Dietrich's diaries, says his predecessor's precise accounts of everything from yellow fog to avalanches provide historical context.

"We know from Josef Dietrich that the extremes were very big during his time. There were very cold winters and very mild winters, very wet summers and very dry summers," he says, adding that the range of weather extremes has been smaller in the 40 years he has recorded data for the Swiss national weather service.

"That's why I'm always cautious when people say the weather extremes now are at their greatest. Without historical context you lose control and you rush to proclaim every latest weather phenomenon as extreme or unprecedented," Hinder says.

Most historians and scientists delving deep into archives seek accounts of disasters and extreme weather events. But the records can also be used to obtain a more precise temperature range for most months and years that goes beyond such general indicators as tree rings, corals, ice cores or glaciers.

Such weather sources include the thrice-daily temperature and pressure measurements by 17th-century Paris physician Louis Morin, a short-lived international meteorological network created by the Grand Duke of Tuscany in 1653, and 33 "weather diaries" surviving from the 16th century. In Japan, court officers kept records of the dates of cherry blossom festivals, which allow modern scientists to track the weather of the time.

Early records often are only discovered by chance in documents that have survived in centuries-old European monasteries like Einsiedeln, or in the annals of rulers, military campaigns, famines, natural hazards and meteorological anomalies. In Klosterneuberg near Vienna an unidentified writer notes a lack of ice on the Danube in 1343-1344 and calls the winter "mild," while the abbot of Switzerland's Fischingen Monastery laments the late harvest of hay and corn in the summer of 1639 when "there was hardly ever a really warm day."

Scores of similar clues are pieced together year by year to determine temperature ranges, says Pfister, whose team of four uses old "weather reports" to work back as far as the 10th century.

Pfister has found that from 1900 to 1990, there was an average of five months of extreme warmth per decade. In the 1990s, that number jumped to an unprecedented 22 months. The same decade also had no months of extreme cold, in contrast to the half-millennium before.

Even in the last major global warming period from 900 to 1300, severe winters were only "somewhat less frequent and less extreme," Pfister says. Over the past century, temperatures have gone up an average of 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit, which is often attributed to the accumulation of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere.

Global warming is one of the world's top issues today because of fears of massive hurricanes and flooding. For most of history, though, it was the fate of farms and the fear of famine that encouraged careful weather observation.

The Einsiedeln abbots - princes within the Holy Roman Empire until 1798 - were powerful leaders who ruled over large swaths of central Switzerland's mountainous terrain. Agriculture was the primary source of income for the region and natural disasters such as floods and avalanches posed an omnipresent threat.

Debts accrued and honored, accidents, local conflicts and business transactions also fill Dietrich's accounts, "but most days start with the weather," says Andreas Meyerhans, who cares for the monastery's precious documents.

The diaries - written in German sprinkled with old Swiss dialect and margin notes in Latin - are "unique" because of the exceptional everyday detail they provide, Pfister says. He adds that centuries of weather records make it clear that people need to adapt when extremely hot or cold weather becomes more frequent. While the lives of earlier generations were ruled by the weather, "in the second half of the 20th century people slept and became completely unprepared for natural disasters, because they happened so rarely."

In Einsiedeln, Hinder reads from a barometer flanked by the Virgin Mary, and worries that humanity is in trouble.

"God still controls the weather," he says. But, he adds, people must do their part by taking better care of the planet.

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

More gloom and doom from the AP "environment" reporters.

"The accounts dispel any lingering doubts that the Earth is heating up more dramatically than ever before, he says."

The world started warming in the middle ages, cooled again and then warmed again, but it's still all our fault. Huh?

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

Can you either auto-excerpt this article or delete it? I inadvertently posted the entire AP article. Thanks!

[expatpat]

What cr*p! The world went through a Little Ice Age at that time, but 700 years before that it had been a good bit hotter than now.

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

Ping

[RegulatorCountry]

I guess it was just too darned inconvenient, to dredge up accounts of weather in the 1300’s. Might not support any socialist pipedreams.

[CCGuy]

Those freezing temps hundreds of years ago are all BUSH’S FAULT!! They did it to benefit Haliburton!!!!

Only Al Gore can save us now. (Therefore we are doomed)

[AmericaUnited]

I just hate with such a passion these lying socialist scum and their useful idiots.

BACKDOORING SOCIALISM.

[JoanneSD]

Paging Al Gore.... paging Al Gore...pick up on line 10

[Grimmy]

Just give it time. We’ll hear the “90% of humans must be wiped out to save Mother Earth”ers hit main stream level acceptance in our life times.

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

I really am concerned about the intersection between the “humans are a burden on the earth” mantra and the “right to die” movement., especially as the baby boom generation ages and puts more pressure on the health care system. It won’t be pretty.

[Verginius Rufus]

I’m not sure why they speak of “19th-century standardized thermopmeters.” Both the Fahrenheit and the Celsius temperature scales were developed in the first half of the 18th century (Fahrenheit died in 1736, and Celsius in 1744). Maybe the calibration wasn’t always done rigorously by early thermometer-makers, or maybe it took time to teach mercury to behave according to standard laws of physics.

[sourcery]

Basic References:

• Challenge to Scientific Consensus on Global Warming: Analysis Finds Hundreds of Scientists Have Published Evidence Countering Man-Made Global Warming Fears
• The Year the Global Warming Hoax Died
• Hostages to a hoax
• Water Experts Find Earth’s Warming, Rainfall Linked to Sun
• Global Warming and Solar Radiation
• Milankovitch Cycles and Glaciation
• The Myth of Dangerous Human-Caused Climate Change (PDF)
• Up against the warming zealots
• When Physics Trumps Hysteria in Global Warming
• Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
• Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts
• Geophysical, archeological and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change (PDF)
• Gamma rays and climate (PDF)
• Temperature vs. Cosmic Ray Flux
• Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development (PDF)
• Proof on Ice: Southern Greenland Was Once Green; Earth Warmer
• Global Warming and Nature's Thermostat
• The Past and Future of Climate (PDF)
• Global warming is not a crisis
• The Great Global Warming Swindle
• IceCap

Lawrence Solomon's "The Deniers" (a series of articles on the view of scientists who have been labelled "Global Warming Deniers"):

• Science, not politics
• Statistics needed
• The original denier: into the cold
• End the chill
• They call this a consensus?
• The limits of predictability
• Unsettled science
• Models trump measurements
• The ice-core man
• The hurricane expert who stood up to UN junk science
• Polar scientists on thin ice
• The sun moves climate change
• Bright sun, warm Earth. Coincidence?
• Look to Mars for the truth on global warming
• Read the sunspots
• Forget warming - beware the new ice age
• Little Ice Age is still with us
• Fighting climate 'fluff'

Other References:

• Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
• Global warming 'is good and is not our fault'
• The Global Warming Myth
• Global Warming: A Chilling Perspective
• Strong Evidence Points to Earth's Proximity to Sun as Ice Age Trigger
• THE NEXT ICE AGE - NOW!
• Father of Climatology Throws Up at the Thought of Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth'
• IPCC Scientists Challenge Al Gore’s View of Global Warming Consensus
• Swedish Scientist Accuses UN's IPCC of Falsifying Data and Destroying Evidence
• CO2 Science
• Global Warming and Climate Forcing by Recent Albedo Changes on Mars
• Climate Momentum Shifting: Prominent Scientists Reverse Belief in Man-made Global Warming - Now Skeptics
• The Real 'Inconvenient Truth'
• New findings indicate today's greenhouse gas levels not unusual
• Climate Change: Incorrect information on pre-industrial CO2
• Global Warming as a Religion
• I Was On the Global Warming Gravy Train (By David Evans)
• Global Warming: it's not caused by greenhouse gases says academic
• Still Waiting for Greenhouse
• GREENIE WATCH
• Why Global Warming Would be Good for You
• Global Warming Primer (PDF)
• Global Warming: An Official Pseudoscience
• Sun's Output Increasing in Possible Trend Fueling Global Warming
• Fiddler On The Roof
• Debating Global Warming
• Climate Resistance

Antarctic Temperature Trend 1982-2004:

This map (left) shows key areas of Antarctica, including the vast East Antarctic ice sheet. The image on the right shows which areas of the continent's ice are thickening (coloured yellow and red) and thinning (coloured blue). © (Left)British Antarctic Survey, (Right)Science

[Publius6961]

"Jan. 11 was so frightfully cold that all of the communion wine froze," says an entry from 1684 by Brother Josef Dietrich, governor and "weatherman" of the once-powerful Einsiedeln Monastery. "Since I've been an ordained priest, the sacrament has never frozen in the chalice."

I sure am glad that the Swiss didn't decide, then, that it was the "normal" temperature God intended and stopped "global warming" in its tracks!

bad monks! Stoopid monks.

[Danae]

Ping to this post

[Publius6961]

Just give it time. We’ll hear the “90% of humans must be wiped out to save Mother Earth”ers hit main stream level acceptance in our life times.

Works for me!

So long as the military stays out of it and everybody has an equal chance of doing the ummmmm... "culling"...

[Old Professer]

Since the water in bottled wine (12.5%) begins to freeze, expand and push away from the alcohol at 21.6 F; we’d need to know a lot more than what is disclosed here.

[Old Professer]

It all started by trying to create a vacuum.

[Publius6961]

Maybe the calibration wasn’t always done rigorously by early thermometer-makers, or maybe it took time to teach mercury to behave according to standard laws of physics.

Or just maybe it took a while to develop methods of consistently drawing glass tubes with precision interior diameters...

Just saying.

[Publius6961]

Maybe the calibration wasn’t always done rigorously by early thermometer-makers, or maybe it took time to teach mercury to behave according to standard laws of physics.

Or just maybe it took a while to develop methods of consistently drawing glass tubes with precision interior diameters...

Just saying.