[Dr. Frank fan]

OK, who is motivated and moste LIKELY to go to the polls in the primary? Sure, Rudy may command some support in various segments of “Republicans”, but where is he in the heartland? Is Chicago suddenly going to convert to a Republican stronghold? How about Manhattan? Or Long Beach?

I don't understand your point. What difference does it make whether someplace is a "Republican stronghold"? We're talking about the primary. Even if only 20% of people somewhere are Republicans, if 80% of those 20% prefer Giuliani, that makes him the front-runner there. (Unless we're talking about places with open primaries?)

[Baladas]

It does matter, because a primary isn’t a direct election. Urban GOP voters will be more liberal than those in rural Alabama, the timing’s everything.

The polling in suburban/exurban areas holds the key IMO - those people will be intra-party “swing voters”.