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Thompson Stronger Among People Who Decide GOP Elections
Campaigns & Elections ^ | October 2, 2007 | Douglas Schoen

Posted on 10/03/2007 12:19:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Rasmussen Reports polling has recently shown Fred Thompson leading the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination while most other polls place Rudy Giuliani in the lead and Thompson in second.

The difference is primarily the result of the fact that Rasmussen screens for Likely Primary Voters while others do not. Gallup numbers are very similar to the Rasmussen numbers. Not only does Gallup's sample of informed voters show Thompson ahead of Giuliani, they also match Rasmussen by showing Romney ahead of McCain.

Why does Gallup's sample of informed voters look so much like the Rasmussen sample of Likely Voters? Because those more informed voters are precisely the kind of people who show up and vote in a primary.

The fact that a Likely Voter sample shows more support for Thompson than a sample of all adults also makes intuitive sense because we know that primary voters tend to be somewhat more conservative than Republicans in general. And, as Rasmussen data has shown, Thompson is perceived by voters as the most conservative candidate seeking the GOP nomination.

The implications of this analysis are clear: Fred Thompson is in a much stronger position among the people who will actually decide Republican primaries and caucuses than most observers understand. And Rudy Giuliani's support is sufficiently soft and is made up in part of voters who are attracted to his celebrity and have a much lower likelihood of actually voting.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Tennessee
KEYWORDS: conservatives; election; election2008; electionpresident; elections; fred; fredthompson; galluppoll; giuliani; gop; gotv; johnmccain; likelyvoters; mittromney; polls; primaries; rasmussenpoll; republicans; rudygiuliani; thompson
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GREAT NEWS AND ANALYSIS!!
1 posted on 10/03/2007 12:19:08 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Rasmussen screens for Likely Primary Voters while others do not”
Well, that explains the weird differences in the polls!
Rasmussen does it right.


2 posted on 10/03/2007 12:21:13 PM PDT by dynachrome (“Third world indigenous medicine for third world illegal aliens!!!”)
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To: dynachrome

If you look at that American Research Group (ARG) polls, you’d be forgiven for thinking that they poll outside homeless shelters, union halls and welfare offices...


3 posted on 10/03/2007 12:23:39 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (https://www.fred08.com/contribute.aspx?RefererID=c637caaa-315c-4b4c-9967-08d864cd0791)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I wonder if people would vote for a Thompson-Giuliani ticket? I think that would be pretty strong, myself.


4 posted on 10/03/2007 12:25:03 PM PDT by TheBigB (I'm back. I'm bad. Get used to it.)
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To: TheBigB

That would be like asking the moonbats to knock off or impeach Fred so they could get liberal RINO Rudy for free!!


5 posted on 10/03/2007 12:26:32 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (https://www.fred08.com/contribute.aspx?RefererID=c637caaa-315c-4b4c-9967-08d864cd0791)
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To: TheBigB

I would!


6 posted on 10/03/2007 12:27:19 PM PDT by .cnI redruM (Columbia U has fewer ROTC cadets than Iran has practicing homosexuals.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

And just who decides the GOP elections? The moderates and leftists in the party - the Rockefeller Republicans, the Council on Foreign Relations - CERTAINLY not the conservatives! Look where the two most conservative candidates are in this race. ONLY THE MOST MODERATE OR LEFTIST in the GOP ARE THE FRONTRUNNERS!!!

WAKE UP AMERICA!!!


7 posted on 10/03/2007 12:28:23 PM PDT by Paperdoll ( Vote for Duncan Hunter in the Primaries for America's sake!)
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To: dynachrome

Good tagline!


8 posted on 10/03/2007 12:28:47 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Pray for, and support our troops(heroes) !! And vote out the RINO's!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

THE MAN WHO LEADS AMOUNG TRUE CONSERVATIVES!

FRED VETS, SIGN UP TODAY AT:

9 posted on 10/03/2007 12:29:10 PM PDT by W04Man (I'm Now With Fred http://Vets4Fred.net)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Fred’s Rasmussen numbers don’t look that encouraging. No one else’s numbers do either.


10 posted on 10/03/2007 12:29:12 PM PDT by 668 - Neighbor of the Beast (All my posts represent my opinions.)
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To: TheBigB

Absolutely not!!

I love Rudy for what he did for NYC and the country after the 9/11 attacks—he helped keep us together through the shock and anger...but he’s a RINO and not fit to be the Republican nominee.

I still think Fred Thompson/Duncan Hunter ticket would be the best for America—and then Duncan in 2012 and 2016!!
I trust that Army Ranger a lot more than I do Rudy!


11 posted on 10/03/2007 12:32:08 PM PDT by pillut48 (CJ in TX --Soccer Mom, Bible Thumper and Proud to be an American! WIN, FRED, WIN!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

There’s the link to recent Rasmussen numbers. I don’t know how to explain it. I expected Fred’s entry to change the numbers more, and put McCain in single digits or out entirely.


12 posted on 10/03/2007 12:33:35 PM PDT by 668 - Neighbor of the Beast (All my posts represent my opinions.)
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To: Paperdoll; All

Is Congressman Duncan Hunter first or second in almost all national and state polls right now? Senator Fred Thompson IS, and is the Rudy & Hillary fighter that ALL conservatives need to rally behind, lest we have a “subway series” next November that will be a disaster for our country, no matter who wins!!

Defeat the RINOs and the Democrats by giving to Fred: https://www.fred08.com/contribute.aspx?RefererID=c637caaa-315c-4b4c-9967-08d864cd0791


13 posted on 10/03/2007 12:33:42 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (https://www.fred08.com/contribute.aspx?RefererID=c637caaa-315c-4b4c-9967-08d864cd0791)
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To: TheBigB

My favorite candidate is Thompson,

or whoever opposes Hillary.


14 posted on 10/03/2007 12:36:18 PM PDT by MrB (You can't reason people out of a position that they didn't use reason to get into in the first place)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Thank God! Go Thompson/Hunter or Hunter/Thompson, NO RUDY!


15 posted on 10/03/2007 12:37:15 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping that it will eat him last..)
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To: TheBigB
Thompson-Giuliani ticket

Thompson-Steele would be clever strategy...

16 posted on 10/03/2007 12:39:37 PM PDT by johnny7 ("But that one on the far left... he had crazy eyes")
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To: 668 - Neighbor of the Beast

It will take a campaign (a general election one) to raise the numbers.

In 1979 neither GHW Bush nor Ronald Reagan could beat Carter only Howard Baker could.

In 1983 John Glenn was polling ahead of Reagan

In the summer of 1988 Dukakis was leading GHWB by double didgits.

In 2003 “generic Democrat” was beating GWB, too bad for them they couldn’t find “generic Democrat” to run instead of Kerry.


17 posted on 10/03/2007 12:47:23 PM PDT by NeoCaveman (Fred Thompson 2008, no need to "suspend disbelief" with him)
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To: TheBigB

“Thompson-Giuliani ticket”?


No, thank you!


18 posted on 10/03/2007 12:48:01 PM PDT by SWAMPSNIPER (THE SECOND AMENDMENT, A MATTER OF FACT, NOT A MATTER OF OPINION)
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To: Paperdoll

“Look where the two most conservative candidates are in this race.”

Fact ~ Hunter and Tancredo are both light years more conservative than anyone else in the race.

Also Fact ~ Both are running “under the radar” campaigns and getting “under the radar” results because of it.

IMHO this race is quickly coming down to three people, Thompson, Mitt or Trudy. Which of those three is YOUR choice for President?


19 posted on 10/03/2007 12:51:26 PM PDT by Grunthor (I'd be Catholic but I don't speak latin and don't wanna learn just to go to church.)
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To: Grunthor; Sun

I honestly could not tell you at this point, because I am not giving up on Rep. Hunter at all.


20 posted on 10/03/2007 12:56:34 PM PDT by Paperdoll ( Vote for Duncan Hunter in the Primaries for America's sake!)
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