Posted on 01/03/2008 11:01:00 AM PST by Baladas
MIAMI -- With most of his major rivals focused on the Iowa caucuses, Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani is spending his Thursday evening 1,300-plus miles south in Florida.
The former New York City mayor is scheduled to attend a rally in Hialeah, a heavily Cuban-American suburb of Miami.
He has made winning Florida a central focus of his campaign, as he was predicted to do poorly in early states Iowa and New Hampshire. Rivals Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and John McCain are focusing on those traditional states.
A memo written by a Giuliani campaign strategist earlier this week outlined the reasoning behind the Florida approach. Only 78 delegates will be picked prior to Florida's Jan. 29 primary, strategy director Brent Seaborn wrote, while 1,039 will be picked that day and on Feb. 5, when California, New York and Illinois vote.
Some voters have already cast their ballots in early and absentee voting, Seaborn added.
"All of this points to the folly of overestimating the impact of the results of Iowa and New Hampshire and the wisdom of our strategy," Seaborn said.
Some campaign veterans have questioned whether Giuliani can survive a series of early losses. And the Republican winner in Florida will get fewer than usual delegates to the nominating convention because the state broke national party rules by holding the primary before Feb. 5.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsbtv.com ...
Well, I;m no politician. But it seems when you know that there’s no way you’ll win in that state. it’s sometimes best to spend that time elsewhere.
Not a bumper sticker or sign for Guilianni to be seen here in South Florida.
Fred can’t even get mentioned in these drive-by articles. The author noters the Iowa Caucuses and then goes on to name Giuiani rivals Huckster, Flip-Flop and McVain who in particular has done very little in Iowa.
Fred’s been on the ground there now for several weeks and is third in many of the polls. Hopefully, after tonight ignoring him will no longer be possible.
I haven’t seen any in Central Florida, either. I’ve seen Thompson, Romney and Paul, but no Giuliani.
But I think he has said since way back when he announced that when it got down to the actual primaries that he could not compete in Iowa or NH.
Since the primaries are usual this time, he is giving this strategy a try, can’t imagine overcoming the powerful MSM tho. Same with FT, getting in after everyone else remains questionable for now, until he wins one.
Since the MSM will propel the winners of Iowa and NH.
At least with RG, the primaries will be interesting, if he holds up. When/if he is gone it will be the same ol, same ol kind of guys, imo.
All I see around here are Ron Paul signs and stickers. WTF?
Same here actually. Ron Paul all over the place.
Feels like college again, lol.
You know, I was never a big Giuliani cheerleader (I’m a Romney supporter), but I’m almost glad that he is leading in Florida because I’d take him any day over Mike “BUT I’M A CHRISTIAN!!!” Huckajoke. Anyone who can stop the Gomer has my vote.
No, more like a brilliant strategy. Whats the larger number, 1039 or 78?
New York is winner take all, and I think he's gonna kick butt on Feb 5. Unless somebody sweeps all the previous primaries, he might very well have this thing sewed up by then.
Momentum matters, he can’t just win NY.
Guilliani’s staff is loaded with high quality pros and they have been fund raising for a year. THIS is the team that is 2nd to Romney’s. None other.
This strategy can win and it will win unless there is a force emerging from the early contests that can take delegates away from Guilliani in the northern states. This is not the general election. It is not EVs. It is partial delegate award everywhere and Guilliani can dominate the huge northern states (plus California) unless there is a candidate that can stop that dominance in those locales.
The Huckster will fade fast. I think the frontrunner and guy to beat is still Rootie, I believe Romney is the only guy who can beat rootie.
“The Huckster will fade fast. I think the frontrunner and guy to beat is still Rootie, I believe Romney is the only guy who can beat rootie.”
That’s one of the major reasons why I threw my support behind Romney. However, that being said, if Huckabee beats Romney in Iowa and McCain beats Romney in NH, I will throw my support behind Giuliani because I refuse to vote for Huckabee (who’s a Gomer) or McCain (who’s insane). He’s our only real salvation against Hillary, and no, I don’t care if he’s less conservative than Fred.
(Disclaimer: I know that WTA is not in play in many states, but since it is a modified WTA in most states, this will even out.)
By my calculations, Guiliani must end Feb 5th with 884 delegates. That will allow him to pick up the other 307 delegates in Washington, Maryland, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Vermont, Pennsylvania, D.C., West Virginia, and Oregon.
There might be a few other post Feb 5th delegates that he could pick up, but not many. That means that on Feb 5th he needs to win:
California (173)
New York (101)
Illinois (70)
New Jersey (52)
Massachusetts (43)
Connecticut (30)
Delaware (18)
and
enough portions of other states to gain an additional 397 delegates.
Let’s give him Minnesota (41) and Colorado (46).
Still 310 short.
Where else does he get votes?
I can see Rudy winning NY NJ CT and maybe Delaware. Maybe some other random state. That’s probably it.
If rootie takes the big states it’s all over but the singing. If he wins Ca, it’s Rudy v. Hillary in November.
If it’s rootie, I’ll sit out.
And, for those of you who think that Mitt is not a "christian", just look at Rudy's "religion" (or lack of).
Don’t worry. I’m not a huge fan of Giuliani, but if it comes down to him or Huckabee, it’s Guiliani for me all the way.
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