Posted on 01/03/2008 11:01:00 AM PST by Baladas
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Where else does he get votes?
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Granting modified WTA early, but not late, he finds them here:
A chunk of Ohio. Half would be 44.
A chunk of SD and New Mexico which adds to about 30.
If he has Illinois PLUS momentum, Indiana = 57
I am not keeping track well of what a majority is . . . if the 50% cut on the early states holds up (which I doubt). If it does, then the target number Guilliani needs reduces. It that 50% cut is restored, then note that the very early races with big delegate counts (FL and MI) are proportional awarding states, not WTA. He’s going to get a chunk of them. Maybe 100 total. That is 234.
He can certainly get within spitting distance. A big danger I see is Texas is not WTA and it is late. Guilliani could be posturing as “presumptive nominee” on February 6th and suck out some of Texas’ 140 delegates because Texas caucuses so late.
I agree Texas may be the final grasp for the clinch. May be smart to have seperated themselves from the pack, or they may be voting after the work is done, I guess we will see.
But no one has an easy road ahead of them. This tight of a race has too many delegates being split up for anyone to be counting on a 40% split to make up the difference.
After New Hampshire we will see who is left standing. Then we will see if it will be a two, three, four, or even five man race to the end. If it isn’t a two man race after Feb 5th, it’s a brokered convention in my opinion.
I did note your disclaimer... but just to confirm: California is not WTA.
(It is WTA by Congressional District—e.g. Pelosi’s district is equal to Republican strongholds)
That makes his job even more difficult (thankfully!)
In any case, I think the field is likely to winnow down more than people expect.
Of course it's possible to imagine scenarios with no clear winner, but the likelihood is small.
Can someone explain the exact mechanics of how a brokered convention works?
Also, was there some underlying effect (relative to a brokered convention) of the RNC's 50% penalty to those states that leapfrogged their primary to a pre-Feb 5 date?
I think McCain runs into a big problem if he wins New Hampshire: age.
It’s not fair and I don’t hold it against him (I have plenty of reasons not to vote for him that have nothing to do with superficial reasoning), but his age will become an issue.
That will be a big obstacle for him.
The penalties just reduce the number of delegates, no other mechanism is related to the penalties.
A brokered convention is simply that each State will put it’s delegates forward to vote for the nominated candidates (a candidate cannot be nominated unless they win a majority of delegates in at least five states).
After the vote, if there is a majority, then we have a nominee.
If there is not a majority, another vote will be scheduled and some good old fashioned horse trading will take place on the floor and in the smoke-free backrooms of the convention.
It will continue until we have a majority vote for a nominee.
Who cares what he does...he’s a poor excuse for a Republican. We have the spectacle of Hillary because of his misguided decisions.
And in NH.
And in NC.
Thats right, and all those numbskulls here dumping on Romney cant see the forest for the trees. If Huckabilly and McVain split the early primaries , then Rudy is going to run away with this.... Man, some people are clueless..
Try poking around this site. This page gives a breakdown of the delegates, but the site has other wonkish info on the elections.
Here is a link to the official GOP rules governing the convention.
Here is the relevant section of the GOP rules for nominating a Presidential candidate:
RULE NO. 40
Nominations
(a) In making the nominations for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States and voting thereon, the roll of the states shall be called separately in each case; provided, however, that if there is only one candidate for nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be required.
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.
(c) The total time of the nominating speech and seconding speeches for any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States shall not exceed fifteen (15) minutes.
(d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall declare that the candidate has been nominated.
(e) If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention.
(f) For the 2004 Republican National Convention, notwithstanding any other provision of these rules or any Rule of the House of Representatives, it shall be in the discretion of the Chair to suspend the roll call conducted to nominate the candidate for President of the United States at any time in order to conduct other Convention business under the established order of business.
The people who think Rudy has any shot at the nomination are clueless.
I think this is Guiliani's Achilles heel, as far as his Feb 5 strategy goes. The current RCP numbers are:
Rudy 25.7
Huck 16.3
Mitt 15.3
McCain 12.3
Fred 9.7
Assuming the Congressional districts split in a similar manner, Rudy gets nowhere near 173 delegates out of CA. If he gets 26% of the districts, he gets 40+11 plurality delegates=51
Of course, if one or more of those drop out before Feb 5, the calculations are out the window.
I wish all major candidates had skipped Iowa. The people I have seen on TV there seem like utter morons to me. And just look at their choices—Obama al-Husseini and the Huckster. Just retards.
Those numbers are from pre-Christmas. Rudy will not be in first place in Cali come February. He might not even be in the top 2.
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