[counterpunch]

Hillary will definitely get the nomination, and yes, it may be only because of super-delegates. Imagine that, when the Democrats’ own mantra of “selected, not elected” is turned back on them! Hillary will have lost the popular vote for the nomination, but will be put into the nomination by “The Powers That Be.” How fitting.

Now, consider the GOP side of the equation. The Democrat nominee will be likely known starting next month, even with the super-delegate issue in play. Even if not, we already know that the nominee will be one of two people. But the likely scenario on the Republican side, with the way things are going — the ultra condensed primaries along with the early, overstuffed Super Tuesday, and two candidates whose strategy is to win late (Thompson & Giuliani), two candidates who will be kept alive by early wins (Huckabee & McCain) and two candidates who will have enough money and ego to stay in until the bitter end (Romney & Paul), we have the very real, very likely possibility of a brokered convention. It is unlikely any candidate will run away with the nomination, and the delegates will split fairly evenly across anywhere from 3 to 5 candidates. This leaves the final victor completely up in the air until the GOP Convention in early September. So the Democrat nominee will be known, and already is narrowed down to one of two people right now, but the GOP nominee will be a total mystery until just two months before the election. This means the Republicans will have all summer and into the fall to define the Democrat nominee negatively, but the Democrats won’t have a clear target to shoot for until the very end.

And who will come out ahead in the end at a brokered convention? No one can know for sure. It could be Newt Gingrich for all we know. However, my guess is it will be Fred Thompson. The reason is simple: Fred may not be many people’s first choice. e may not even be anybody’s first choice. But he is everybody’s second choice. Fred is the only candidate in the Republican field who is acceptable to everyone. And that is what a brokered convention produces. Go down the entire presidential list, and every candidate has their own faction, and a lot of opposition from every one else. Until you get to Fred. There is no strong opposition from constituency to him. And so after an inability for anyone to get their first choice passed, and needing to choose someone, the delegates will unite around the one guy they all can accept: Fred Thompson.

Hillary will have been utterly destroyed by September and Fred will emerge from the convention clean and seeming fresh and new. The Democrats won’t have a chance in November.

[doug from upland]

The GOP does not have a super delegate system.

[2ndDivisionVet]

In your scenario, I see Fred Thompson picking Mitt Romney as Vice President (just as George H.W. Bush was to Ronald Reagan) which will give Romney 4-8 years to prove his conservative bona fides to the GOP, and help fund the general election campaign. The establishment of the party would have no problem with that team, and the evangelicals would have the choice of two pro-life candidates versus the dems.

[sgtyork]

And don’t you think that a brokered convention will be immensely more information heavy than the scripted ones we have seen for the last few elections? The Republicans spend 2-3 days talking about their ideas with more people watching because its a contest. The last Republican convention was a big bounce for Bush, a brokered convention could be Awesome.

[kalee]

From your mouth to God’s Ear.

[OregonRancher]

However, my guess is it will be Fred Thompson.

My assesment also. A brokered convention will galvanize the Republican party and with Thompson leading the ticket, disenfranchised Dems will swing his way. Hillary will in effect, cut her own throat. Blair

[NobleEagle2004]

Wow!
I Feel so much better right now.
Kudos to you.