Posted on 01/30/2008 4:03:15 PM PST by Checkers
CNN puts McCain with 97 delegates and Romney at 74.
Let's look at the worst case for Romney on Super Tuesday.
Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)
Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 51 delegates.
Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 126.
Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.
States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:
California 173
Georgia 72
Illinois 70
Tennessee 55
Alabama 48
Colorado 46
Massachusetts 41
Minnesota 40
Oklahoma 41
West Virginia 30
Alaska 29
North Dakota 26
Total 671
If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.
Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:
McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.
It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.
Start looking hard at the numbers and put yourself in the discussions with Team Romney. It isn't pretty, but it is far, far from over.
And if the Huckabee voters look at the reality and see they are voting for McCain when they vote for Huck, anything can happen.
(Excerpt) Read more at hughhewitt.townhall.com ...
ping
“And if the Huckabee voters look at the reality and see they are voting for McCain when they vote for Huck, anything can happen.”
This point must be made every chance Romney gets...
Hugh perverted himself early on like a pimp for a drug induced pig. His influence is measurably laughable. He ain’t a conservative by any sense of the measure.
Admitteldy, with Rudy's endorsement and with Huckabee's actions basically spoiling for McCain, it is going to be a very, very difficult road to hoe. Almost insurmountable it seems, but still worth the effort IMHO, even if Romney is my 3rd choice. Still a better choice, IMHO, than McCain.
The Huck voters are largely politically tone deaf, they will not see their vote as helping McCain.
Here is my problem with Hugh’s otherwise “fair enough” reasoning:
Historically, the perceived “winner” of most early delegates (and McCain has a plurality, if not “most”) IMPROVES HIS STANDING in the remaining states. For some reason, people want to vote for a winner ... which is silly, perhaps ...
Point is, if history is a guide, McCain is likely to improve his “numbers,” absent some new, hard-hitting attacks on him by opponents or the media — or a gaffe/ scandal not previously known.
I wish it were otherwise, Hugh, but ...
The Huckabee voters wouldn't know reality if it hit them in the face.
I only did this math weeks ago, but thanks for catching up Hugh.
If prayer works, someone can try that. I'm not a prayer.
Well that's a bit strong. Hewitt is truly a conservative.
OTOH you are correct, I believe, about his influence. Hewitt tends to be overly optimistic about the chances of the candidates (and the party) he supports and this leads me to discount anything he says including this article.
I used to listen to Hewitt and Medved in the afternoons out here on the Left Coast. No longer. Medved is pimp for McPain, Hewitt is not to be believed and they both run so many commercials and breaks for the weather and traffic that there just isn't any continuity to their shows any longer.
For me it is Rush and FR.
I wonder how fresh these polls are. Super Tuesday ought to be a chaotic day. If Romney has any money left in his coffers, he’d better start spending it now. He also had better hit a grand friggin’ slam tonight if he wants to stop the McCain juggernaut.
Hugh went hard for Mitt early on knowing the strategy of the Republican establishment was for McCain. Mitt was hardly a conservative and the split with the social conservatives lent an opening for McCain to walk through. Conservatives were already apprehensive about Mitt.
Thanks for the numbers. I was just going to look for them. This race is far from over.
The truth about Mr. Amnesty needs to get out to the voters that vote but haven’t paid attention the past year to what McCain has done!
It’s over.
I was wondering whether Romney should step it up a notch and fork out the big bucks to air an ad during the Superbowl.
Given his adament refusal to speak ill of McCain, I’m convinced Huck fancies himself a potential VP...I’m also convince McCain will crush his dreams like the quarterback ditches the ugly girl with a crush.
That’d be a bold move, though I think it would backfire. Americans like to compartmentalize, and most don’t like mixing sports and politics.
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