Rurudyne's Daily Global Cooling Watch

Brits at their Best ^ | January 31, 2008 | unattributed

[Rurudyne]

Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age

The Canadian Space Agency’s radio telescope has been reporting Flux Density Values so low they will mean a mini ice age if they continue.

Like the number of sunspots, the Flux Density Values reflect the Sun’s magnetic activity, which affects the rate at which the Sun radiates energy and warmth. CSA project director Ken Tapping calls the radio telescope that supplies NASA and the rest of the world with daily values of the Sun’s magnetic activity a “stethoscope on the Sun”. In this case, however, it is the “doctor” whose health is directly affected by the readings.

This is because when the magnetic activity is low, the Sun is dimmer, and puts out less radiant warmth. If the Sun goes into dim mode, as it has in the past, the Earth gets much colder.

Tapping, who was originally from Kent, says that “Typically as you go through the ten or eleven year solar activity cycle you see the numbers go up or down. The lowest number is 64 or 68. The numbers 71 or 72 are very low, but they usually start to go up. We are at the end of a cycle, but the numbers still haven’t gone up. We have been joking around coffee that we may be seeing the Sun about to shut down.” (To date Tapping has been far more concerned about global warming.)





Here is the link to the latest flux report: http://www.drao-ofr.hia-iha.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/icarus/www/current_flux.shtml

[Rurudyne]

RATS!!! I just noticed the typos on and around my own graph in that post. It was cutting and pasting and got careless ... the last edit you do is one edit too few....

[Swordmaker]

It's amazing... we've discovered what controls sunspots...

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Earth!

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

The usual length of time from a Maximum to a Minimum is 33 months +/- 5 months. Since SC23 reached its maximum in January of 2004 it has been almost 50 months and SC24 is still sputtering.

Are you sure about that. It looks like the SC 23 max was hit in 2000.

[Rurudyne]

I was basing that on something I found a while back while poking around and I think it must refer to the ‘end of a maximum’ rather than the occurrence of absolute maximum observed (i.e. some portion of the top of the curve). Otherwise the numbers don’t add up since 28-38 months is not half of 11 years (the nominal length of a solar cycle).

I really wish I could find the reference again to at least reference it, but when I first made note of it in a thread (not this one) I didn’t keep a link. My bad.

[Rurudyne]

I thought it was hot air from socialist that controls atmospheric CO2. –.^

[Swordmaker]

I thought it was hot air from socialist that controls atmospheric CO2. –.^

That's secondary... tertiary is the Socialist desire for global power... primary is the CO₂...

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

We're all gonna die!!!!

Aw man!

And I just got my hair done.

[Dr.Zoidberg]

We're all gonna die!!!!

Just so long as we don't all fry, I'm good to go.

I like the cold.

[Rocky]

Keep up the good work. I enjoy reading your updates.

[GOPJ]

This is an anomaly with a large magnitude, and it coincides with other anecdotal weather evidence. It is curious, it is unusual, it is large, it is unexpected...

Isn't it safe to assume that if it's the sun - and it probably is, that statistically it's unlikely we're at an extreme end - and it's more likely this is a normal but someone expansive pattern?

[Rurudyne]

You are spot on right when you write:

"Isn't it safe to assume that if it's the sun - and it probably is, that statistically it's unlikely we're at an extreme end - and it's more likely this is a normal but someone expansive pattern?"

It often seems like even climatologist think that all the sun ever does is this 11 year roller coaster ride; however, there is data to support longer solar cycles than the 11 year one, which is to say underlaying patterns in solar activity.

If you go to that last link which leads to the "The RC Theory: SSRC Research Report 1-2008" you will see what I mean. The potential existence of 100 or 200 year cycles for the sun is now the basis for that article's prediction that this solar cycle, SC24, will be the start of a new Dalton Minimum kind of event. Even NASA, which is sold out for consensus science, seems to be taking the position that SC25 will be the start of a minimum lasting several decades.

Just as an aside, I've repeated in this thread that a flux value of 64-68 is as low as things get; however, that is not necessarily true. It is as low as has been measured in the roughly 60 years that these particular measurements have been taken. But that does not mean that the sun cannot go LOWER than a value of 64-68 since no sunspots is no sunspots no matter if the flux value is 68 or 50. If it can get lower, and if there is some form of stellar hibernation as NASA speaks of where it might get lower, and it does, then it should be a VERY BAD thing for us.

Either way, Mr.Watts corrective statement — which I included for the sake of good form — looks a bit like timidity ... as if he doesn't want to be seen as categorically saying that AGW is naught but hot air (which is the logical inference from that one BLOG post of his).

Another aside, I wish "blockquote" would actually put a box around the quote like other forums do.

[FBD]

Heads up! Rurudyne has discovered something:

"There is a strong link between both sunspot activity and the sun's magnetic flux as to how brightly it shines and how much meat it generates."

8^/

[GOPJ]

“This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the Little Ice Age when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes.” It was called the Maunder Minimum, after Edward Maunder, a British accountant who saw a sunspot “like a tack in the Sun” while he was walking home, and subsequently made counting and analyzing sunspots, rather than money, his life’s work. There have been other Minimums. The Dalton Minimum of 1800 to 1810 was that period when Napoleon had his unfortunate encounter with the Russian winter.

If there were such a thing as a perfect storm, this might be it. Cooling earth, raising food prices, rampant unemployment, political instability, a politicized scientific community - - our metaphorical "unfortunate encounter with the Russian winter"...

[Rurudyne]

Great response!

You must know how I hate typoes!

And while I’m a Standup Philosopher, that’s no BS.

[Rurudyne]

The Sun on Vacation: Day 65 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Sunday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:09

Julian Day Number : 2454535.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2067.629

Observed Flux Density : 0069.9

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0069.0

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0062.1


Has anyone else noticed how the observed flux and the adjusted seem to be getting closer together? At the start of this watch they were farther apart than now. I'm guessing it's because Earth's elliptical orbit is bringing us closer to the sun.

[FBD]

>”You must know how I hate typoes!”<

-Yeah, but that one was way tooo funny. I couldn’t resist.
;^)

>”And while I’m a Standup Philosopher, that’s no BS.”<

[rimshot] da-dum-bump...

-heheh, and a standup comedian too, eh?

-BTW, Thanks for the SF update.

[Rurudyne]

The Sun on Vacation: Day 66 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Monday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:10

Julian Day Number : 2454536.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2067.666

Observed Flux Density : 0070.7

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0069.7

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0062.8


In a perfect world political forums would be a lot less lively, and those dedicated to the Transformers (TM) more so.

[Rurudyne]

The Sun on Vacation: Day 67 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Tuesday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:11

Julian Day Number : 2454537.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2067.702

Observed Flux Density : 0070.6

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0069.7

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0062.8


My Online Fiction: Or how I spend the rest of my time....

Transformers: Genesis
Transformers: Forgotten Wars
The Hall of Dead Gods (episode 2 complete)
The Mythopoetic Clock (background/subtext)



"I'm Rurudyne, and I approve of this shameless self-promotion."

[Rurudyne]

The Sun on Vacation: Day 68 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Wednesday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:12

Julian Day Number : 2454538.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2067.739

Observed Flux Density : 0069.6

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0068.7

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0061.9


You know, this is a bit like standing near the surf watching the waves roll back and forth. You know that sooner or later your feet will get wet, but you don't know when.

[Rurudyne]

The Sun on Vacation: Day 69 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Thursday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:13

Julian Day Number : 2454539.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2067.776

Observed Flux Density : 0070.0

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0069.1

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0062.2