I’d like to point out the obvious... we’re at the bottom of the current solar cycle, which means yes, indeed solar flux is low, geomagnetic field will be relatively quiet. Technically, we are probably starting on the upslope of the next cycle (24) so we will see an increase in solar activity over the next 5 or so years as sun spots increase, the sun becomes more active, and magnetic fields start to shift again.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080104_sunspot.html
I agree with your assessment generally, but the flux density number has noticeably dropped in the last 12 days. This would indicate that sun activity/magnetism has not yet reached the bottom of its current cycle. To think it could get cooler before it starts warming again! Like you, I think the next warming period will be short and mild leading into an even cooler period (but what do I know? I’m not a washed up politician from TN!).
Dat true.
But this is the winter of our discount tent.