Posted on 03/27/2008 12:48:16 PM PDT by rmlew
Analyzing China’s prospects in terms of fashionable globalist ideology, Washington is betting that a rich China will be a free one. The theory is that the only way China can continue to grow is by embracing Western democracy and capitalism. Moreover, the very process of China’s enrichment is supposedly undermining the Beijing government’s authoritarianism. More wealth means more freedom means more wealth.
Here is how President George W Bush has put it: “As China reforms its economy, its leaders are finding that once the door to freedom is opened even a crack, it cannot be closed. As the people of China grow in prosperity, their demands for political freedom will grow as well.”
Similar optimism pours forth from the American press. The Wall Street Journal has commented: “Sooner or later China’s economic progress will create the internal conditions for a more democratic regime that will be more stable, and less of a potential global rival.”
The Washington view has become so widely accepted that almost no one has noticed that there is a second bet on the table—that of the Chinese leadership. It is wagering on a disturbingly different outcome: that a future China can be both rich and authoritarian.
(Excerpt) Read more at amconmag.com ...
Eamonn Fingleton writes from Tokyo. This essay is adapted from In the Jaws of the Dragon, released this month by St. Martins Press. Used with permission.
Ping
Methinks that we will be returning to old-school “balance of power” politics in a multipolar world. In other words, what is needed are more Disraelis and Metternichs and less Richard Perles and Madeline Halfbrights
Busted by Mythbusters. Nothing happens. Bulls are surprisingly deft and graceful.
Those in the White House who believe a prosperous China will be our partner promoting mutual stability in the Pacific clearly don't understand that it was our free trade policies with Germany prior to WWII that enabled them to arm and to arm well.
(Having an undergraduate degree in history from Yale doesn't guarantee that a person learned his subject very well.)
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
If they do, they'll be the first commies in history to figure out how. The track record of communism is one of dismal failure, wherever tried.
“Washington is betting that a rich China will be a free one”
Hell of an experiment at the expence of the American working public.
China has the most to lose in any conflict with the US. Will we see a conflict with China in our lifetimes (note to other Freepers, rmlew and I are in our early 30s)? Yes, provided we do not come to an agreement over spheres of influence once the PRC rises as a true world power (which is a definate in our lifetimes).
My advice to the striped pants boys is to keep strong relations with India and Japan (even if cosying up to the former POs the Pakis), using both our relationships and our trading partner status as leverage against Beijing.
This is ugly, but...with them owning all of our treasuries, if we “bottom” now, what do they do, show up on our door knocking with tanks behind them when we still hold the upper hand, technilogically (and for the time being), militarily?
Or I guess, the option is to buy buy buy cheap as anything the infastructure with their savings rate.
Too bad washington is a drunken sailor and can’t cut the hell out of taxes, as that would solve this problem almost extensively.
See my post above. The average Chinese is getting hit harder with inflation than the average American due to the “agreement” we have with them. The devalued dollar is NOT their friend.
Set up as an either/or choice, I would have to suggest that China will remain authoritarian.
However, the point that may have been missed is that China may be ungovernable as anything *other* than an authoritarian state. But even more so, what passes for authoritarianism should not be confused with either self-control or efficiency—the two false fears of the West.
The West fools itself, repeatedly, by assuming that authoritarian states are, somehow, better, than democratic states. They aren’t.
This is because one of the greatest of the appeals of democracy, as such, *is* efficiency. It beats other systems of government hands down by giving the people what they want.
This is a very important point. Liberty and freedom are not the *primary* reasons democracy succeeds. They are just pleasant side effects. Democracy makes sense in every corner of the world, from peasants to princes, because it is “a better way of doing business.”
Right now, China is being haunted by democracy. Not, as the article would suggest, caused by prosperity forcing the door open to greater freedoms and liberty. But because of silly reality shows on Chinese TV. Reality shows that showed people *voting* on unimportant things. Widely popular shows seen across China.
That is, Chinese leaders, down to the lowest levels, issue orders that are carried out, or not. This is the way it has been for a very long time. But now, when some lower level local boss issues an order to a small group of uneducated peasants, one of them chimes in: “Let’s vote on it!”
I cannot overstate how dangerous this little thing is to an authoritarian state. When even peasants realize that their boss has no, zero, reason to be their boss. He is nothing special, knows nothing they don’t know. And they figure that, *as a group*, they can probably decide a better course of action than just by mindlessly obeying orders.
A few peasants saying “Let’s vote on it!”, despite blistering threats and admonitions that they should just obey without question, is a severe threat to the Chinese government, and they know it.
China itself is not efficient. In fact, it is disordered and chaotic. Orders issued by the central government are regularly ignored to the point where China is more a confederacy of autonomous provinces than a single nation.
Ironically, throughout China, the central government is fairly popular. The people like how the central government tries to manage the country. What they don’t like, and loudly protest, is provincial and local leaders *ignoring* the laws of the central government.
A large percentage of the tens of thousands of protests China have each year are pleading with the central government to enforce its laws on a provincial or local government that is breaking those laws.
There’s the zinger: the people want the central government to be *more* authoritarian. That is what the democratic voice of China, at the lowest level, wants. They are not crying out for freedom and liberty, but for efficiency and effective government.
The government of China has nothing to fear from democracy. If anything, the vote of the people would surprise them by its real and honest support for its leaders and their current policies. The government the Chinese people generally want is authoritarian, and it is pretty much the status quo in China or everywhere else, for that matter.
But they want that authoritarian government to be more efficient. And the path to that greater efficiency is via democracy. Hopefully, but not essentially, with freedom and liberty as side effects.
Authoritarian governent is all the Chinese have known.
I honestly don't give a rat's Pootie how the Chinese people live, Except for my religious beliefs required me to wish a good life for everyone.
However I do care about the quality of weapons and military infrastructure that our nation's armed forces will have to deal with.
When China shot down that satellite, they gave the world a clue of their future plans. Ignore that at your own risk.
As for the belief that exposure to Western markets - thoughts and beliefs will change them?
Just look at Mexico - they have a great and prosperous nation next door and they still are a sh*hole.
Besides, Mexico may be poor compared to the US, but it is far from being dirt poor a la Bangladesh, Haiti, and subsaharan Africa.
But China has umphteen thousand year old culture.
And here's an interesting thought, both China and Mexico hold the idea that what was once part of their nations, is always part. Hence we see the ongoing reconqista via cheap gardeners and maids vs. tanks and machine guns. - Ya, I know, a twisted comparison and has nothing to do with this great article - but still a thought.
Back in the 1970’s when R.O.C. Taiwan was expelled from the United Nations to make room for the mainland communist regime, someone called it
“A case of a China in the bull shop”
;^)
The criminal fascist syndicate occupying Washington defines freedom as the ability to buy a cell phone from one of four different manufacturers.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.