Posted on 04/28/2008 7:46:16 AM PDT by SmithL
WASHINGTON -- As Democratic leaders try to end the continuing fight for their party's 2008 presidential nomination, the contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton heads into an unusual phase: of the final seven states to vote, only one, Oregon, has supported a Democratic nominee in the last two White House contests.
The fate of Obama and Clinton could rest in the hands of voters in states that could have little impact on the outcome of the general election this fall, beginning May 6 with two reliably Republican states, Indiana and North Carolina, and ending June 3 with even more reliably Republican South Dakota and Montana. In between are West Virginia on March 13 and Kentucky and Oregon on May 20.
Only Oregon has voted for a Democratic nominee in the last two elections -- Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. But the others supported George W. Bush by double digits in his re-election in 2004 and in his first bid in 2000, with the exception of West Virginia, which gave him an eight-point victory margin in 2000. (Guam holds a caucus May 3, and Puerto Rico has a primary on June 1.)
"It's that kind of year for the Democrats -- full of irony," said Bert Rockman, head of the Department of Political Science at Purdue University in Indiana. A contest widely expected to end as early as Feb. 5 -- the day of the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses in 22 states -- is nearly another three months old with a handful of mostly "red states" to render the final verdicts on Obama and Clinton.
The Obama campaign arrived in Indiana in mid-March and started registering new voters, using free Dave Matthews concert tickets and a chance to play basketball with the Illinois senator as incentives to get voting-age Hoosiers to register to vote. On Friday, the campaign announced plans to conduct a 50-state voter registration drive for the fall, underscoring Obama's argument to uncommitted party superdelegates that he can grow the vote in states where the Democratic Party has not been able to compete in recent elections.
Democratic presidential primary voter registration in Indiana has jumped some 160,000 since January, a trend that had benefited Obama until this week. Indiana's Democratic primary is open, meaning Republicans and independents can vote in it, and that can skewer results or keep the party full of "chaos and tumult," as radio host Rush Limbaugh has been urging "crossover voters" since before March 4 primaries in Texas and Ohio.
At least 10 percent of newly registered voters in Indiana are former Republicans, say state election officials.
Some 165,000 new Democrats have registered in North Carolina, but most are first-time voters, according to the state board of elections. Even if new registrations don't transform North Carolina into a battleground state in the fall, "they could force the GOP to defend their turf," said Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program on Public Life at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic rolls rose by more than 300,000, more than half of whom were Republicans, for last Tuesday's primary. Clinton won in Pennsylvania by almost 10 percentage points, on the strength of support from white working-class voters.
According to exit polls in Pennsylvania, 10 percent of those who voted in the primary said they intended to vote for McCain in the fall.
President Bush's 2004 margin over Democrat John Kerry in states yet to hold their 2008 Democratic primaries:
Indiana (May 6): Bush 60 percent, Kerry 39 percent.
North Carolina (May 6): Bush 56, Kerry 44.
West Virginia (May 13): Bush 56, Kerry 43.
Kentucky (May 20): Bush 60, Kerry 40.
Oregon (May 20): Kerry 51, Bush 47.
Montana (June 3): Bush 59, Kerry 39.
South Dakota (June 3): Bush 60, Kerry 38.
wonder if they come with gold cuff links? He has to leave the Rolex at home, but can have a medallion.
I wonder why the Commercial Appeal doesn’t know about it?
“Oregon (May 20): Kerry 51, Bush 47.”
McCain didn’t even bother to put himself on the Oregon Ballot this time or the voter’s pamphlet. It appears the GOP doesn’t care how much more blue this state gets.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Well, I went to the Commercial, and you are right, not a word.
It is all over the radio. Who knows? After all, it is Memphis.
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