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I wouldn't argue against that time frame given the right set of actions taken to a given set of known conditions, e.g. continue discontent with the Mullahs and their puppet state leadership, decayed relations between the government and what used to be the regular army,navy,airforce, the hardships being experience by increasing numbers of Iranians in the way of lost jobs, hard to get at gasoline, lose of many imports to fuel their industries on many fronts etc..
I think GWB with agreement from the State Department is going to set up some diplomatic conditions whereby the Iranian people in ever growing numbers who can get access to outside news will see the US willing to at least talk with Iranian leadership to a given degree.
The carrot of course as you well know is they stop uranium enrichment, we will do a bit of talking.
As discontent continues to grow with the failed leadership of Ahmadinajad and his cronies, the Mullah may decide to dump him (sometimes car accidents etc., can occur).
They just may open up a new level of dialog with the west as even more sanctions are followed through.
The majority of Iranian have nothing against the US or westerners in general. In fact they seem according to so many reports over the past ten years plus want to emulate us to some degree.
We may not have to bomb their nuclear facilities when it comes down to it. Certainly I don't see anyone in this administration or the next potential one wanting to bomb their citizens into ashes with nuclear weapons in a pre-emptive strike.
Such actions are really distasteful to the majority of the world. And I can't see killing a few million plus people who would rather be like Americans and rock and roll with the head phones on, going up in smoke because they have a few ten thousand total assholes keeping them in bondage.
I can see clearly the possibility we reached a point where we literally take their RG forces apart, level below and above ground nuclear/bio/chemical related industrial and research complexes, many related industries, all their comm networks anyway related to their Intel and Military, as well as all their airbases, army bases, their naval assets on ground and in the sea, etc..
A side benefit being no air force or navy to even consider using against the Iraqi in future. And a totally disrupted military establishment other then just sending large groups of goons across the borders to be blown up by airpower on the Iraqi side.
Leaving only their petrochemical, refineries, oil and gas drilling platforms, and airports in place.
In short cripple them for the next twenty years or more, with a few weeks of concentrated air strikes.
At any rate, we can go on as how best to solve the issue, and the various combinations at our disposal to see it through.
You and I know we could do this if it the green light goes on.
The question of course is does the US have the will to take military actions in the near future if nothing changes.
That is the question I am sure many of us stay concentrated on.