Posted on 07/19/2008 1:25:15 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
2008 Corn & Soybean Yield Expectations In Midwest Study
URBANA, Ill. - A new study by University of Illinois agricultural economists projects that average 2008 corn yields could be reduced by 2.9 bushels per acre in Illinois, 3.5 bushels in Indiana, and 6.3 bushels in Iowa due to later-than-normal planting and above-normal precipitation in May. Soybean yields may be down 1.1 bushels, 0.4 bushels, and 1.0 bushels per acre, respectively, in those same states for the same reasons.
(Excerpt) Read more at cattlenetwork.com ...
Ping!
Looks like up to 4% reduction of corn in Iowa, up to 3% of soybeans in Illinois, worst case.
But if other states have great crop yields (plenty of rain this year), the net result could be increased production.
Ethenol and bio-diesel help drive up demand.
So crop prices are high, probably will stay high, imHo.
Just my midwest eyeball report.
Things didn’t really start to grow until late June. My tomatoes were no bigger than when I planted then in early may until the growth in late June. Now they are 3-4 weeks behind in maturity.
The fields that got planted and were not destroyed are now looking very good, but they to are 3-4 weeks behind maturity. Still plenty of moisture, but, when crops “rush” to mature, yields will be lower.
That was my first thought; what about the other states? Even here in the “Gay State”, I’ve never seen so many formerly fallow fields full of corn. Ditto up in NH and Maine, and what about all of the other crops?
Central Wisconsin had major flooding. I can only imagine areas along the Mississippi were worse. Some fields still covered. Also, I had heard from a friend, from a farm family, that some farmers probably would not replant since they had crop insurance to cover any loses. Dont know much about it, but it doesnt sound good.
Great website! Thanks for posting this.
Corn futures fell for a second day Friday, extending the commodity's weekly losses to more than 11% and wiping out its 20% gains in June amid the Midwest flooding.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7B0E2FB849%2D7EC6%2D4F12%2DA773%2DEDC071F76B40%7D&siteid=rss
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East of here, there are low areas in otherwise flat land (or as flat as it gets) still under water as of a week ago. This area is usually planted in contract vegetables for large packers and a couple of large parcels in the 200-acre range are for sale. They were plowed under and are bare.
To the South, there was more flooding, but there always is.
I haven't been along the River for the past 6 weeks, so can't report.
We got a lot of rain and have only had perhaps a week at most of dry days in a row. The temperatures for a couple of weeks have warmed up enough, especially at night, to accelerate growth. I have sweet corn planted 5/25 that is somewhat stunted, while the corn planted 2 weeks later looks fine, but all in all, they look ok and will bear, I think. My tomatoes are doing terrific. They are loaded with fruit, only one early tomato shows signs of insects,but my 60-day tomatoes aren't even blushed, yet.We had a month of cold nights in June, which is probably why. Even though we got some hail on Thursday, none of the fruit appears to have been even scarred. I'll know better on that in a few days, as it can take time for bruises to show. I am also hoping for some more dry days so the tomatoes don't split. Even with many days of high winds, none of my garden was damaged and I don't see damage in the maturing corn fields. Hay has been difficult to cut with all the rain, but farmers are used to that and take advantage of dry weather to cut. But I am told hay is very expensive.
My sweet bell peppers are just flowering. This is my first year growing these, so I have no experience, but they are 80-day plants and in my North-facing garden in a valley, that can mean 90+ days. These plants went in the ground 5/25. Experienced gardeners tell me that if we get early frost, sweet peppers can be dug up, potted and finished indoors. I hope not to have to find out if that will work.
Wild berries were right on target, a week later than some years, at the most, and juicier than I recall in the past. Blackberries in the higher elevations are showing a tinge of red at the tips. The apple trees are loaded.
Up until last year, we were in a marginal drought situation, here, so,despite the flooding, the rain has been needed to recharge the ground water. So much depends on when the rains come and how heavy they are relative to the plant's stage of development. Also, some of the worst flooded areas are in the floodplain and so flooding is expected, there.
Somewhere recently I heard that about 1/3 of the US corn crop is now going for ethenol. If so, that would explain today's relatively high corn prices.
Years ago I heard that in New York State, for example, which 100 years ago was farming virtually all the land that COULD be farmed, today the number is more like 50%.
The reason was not the growth of urban areas, but just that, given New York's conditions, farming became no longer profitable.
I'm wondering if that's still the case, and if that 50% figure is starting to rise now.
Around here the crops range from very good to miserable depending on the planting date and weather.About half of the corn in our immediate area is water damaged enough that I’m not sure it will make a crop.We just finished our wheat harvest here and only averaged 43.6 bushels per acre-had a lot of kill spots from flooding.The last quote that I heard from Iowa was a 9 percent loss of acreage for corn due to flooding.The USDA supply and demand report for July shows the same expected acres harvested on corn as the June report.Makes me question the validity of the July report.
Thanks for your report. It also struck me that what this report says is more upbeat than what many other reports and first-hand observers like you are saying.
There are some places where the crops are a complete loss in Iowa and I would assume Indiana and Wisconsin. In addition to the flooding, it was also too cool to get things growing.
Strictly guessing, the overall crop may be 15-20% smaller. It is really hard for me to get a perspective. Half or more of the land around here flooded and has no crops on it.
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