Give McCain Ohio and NH and it's a 269-269 tie. I think MI and CO will go to McCain as well.
I believe a 269-269 tie with the rat house breaking the tie is the only formula for an obamessiah victory. The only states I see him with a reasonable chance of winning are all the states that went blue in either 2000 OR 2004, plus Nevada. While I acknowledge that VA and CO are drifting left, it would take quite a lurch for them to go blue this year. Maybe next decade they will.
However, if McCain picks Lieberman, this all goes out the window... the obamessiah will get 300+ in that case.