I can’t see how Obama is still winning on intrade when the race is pretty well tied in most all polls.
more specifically since every poll has hussien lowing states (Co, Oh) in the past week....
I think a lot of people are buying into the “it is a Democratic year” angle. Along with the Obama spin that they are copying Reagan in 1980 and will surge late. I think it is a pipe dream.
Currently on InTrade:
13 EV Virginia is a 48.5%
20 EV Ohio is at 47.0%
9 EV Colorado is at 45.0%
McCain is currently at 232 EV.
If McCain keeps the states he has, plus wins the three above states, he gets:
232 EV + 13 EV + 20 EV + 9 EV = 274 EV
They don't ban stupid people from betting away their hard earned money.
Quite simple. Thanks to Bill Frist, Americans are banned from playing Intrade. Therefore, the players are now more heavily weighted toward euro-trash than in years past. Euro-trash love the obamessiah.
Smart McCain money won't move in until after the conventions if John is close in the polls. I've got my bet on Obama short, John Long, and Dem and Rep VP Field.