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To: Momaw Nadon

Your just scaring people with this. This is a really old map with old numbers.


12 posted on 08/25/2008 4:29:53 PM PDT by cmsgop ( " excuse me stewardess I speak jive")
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To: cmsgop

Yeah, it scares me!


14 posted on 08/25/2008 4:32:39 PM PDT by make no mistake
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To: cmsgop; make no mistake
"Your just scaring people with this. This is a really old map with old numbers."

The numbers are from about an hour ago.

If you look more closely at them, you'll see that McCain is actually in a decent position, and is poised to take the lead in Electoral Votes.

17 posted on 08/25/2008 4:41:50 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: cmsgop; AmericaUnited
Your just scaring people with this. This is a really old map with old numbers.

No, you need to understand the source.

InTrade is a futures market, in which people bet with real money on the outcome -- in this case it's the outcome of each state.

The "% chance of winning" is actually the current price of a futures contract that pays off $1 if McCain wins. Alaska is 80.0, so it's 80 cents to buy that contract. You would make 20 cents profit if McCain wins Alaska, or lose 80 cents if Obama wins Alaska.

The price of the contract is supposed to represent the "collective wisdom" of the traders. But if they are collectively biased for one reason or another, it won't be accurate. It certainly doesn't represent any kind of scientific poll.

Take a look at the site, and you'll see futures contracts for lots of things, political and non-political. Look at the current prices, and you'll learn a lot about the people that trade there. Then, you can decide if you agree with them.

20 posted on 08/25/2008 4:51:59 PM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.)
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