Can someone explain to me by how many points a convention is supposed to help a Presidential candidate’s poll numbers bounce ?
What were they expecting Obama’s poll bounce to be anyway ?
In theory 10 or 12 percentage points bump..
The two worst Democrat bounces (previous to this one) were John Kerry in 2004 and George McGovern in 1972. Both candidates lost.
The biggest bounce of all time was Bill Clinton in 1992 - he received a 30-point bounce. However, this was mostly due to Ross Perot dropping out of the race just prior to the Democratic convention that year.
They were looking for 10-12 pts overall...6-7 right afterward, and then 4-7 the following week...but that last is not happening at all, in fact, now McCain is closing in at a dead heat. Not at all the norm.