Folks,
Don’t try to analyze EVs starting from zero. Start from Bush’s 2004 totals instead.
He won with 286 EVs. Iowa and New Mexico are likely lost and they are 7 and 5, respectively. That would be a 4 EV victory if all other states held constant.
As of now, it looks very much like Colorado is the decisive state. Note that Bush won Ohio by 118,000 votes, and lost Pennsylvania by 144,000 votes. Nearly the same margin, so if you’re inclined to think that Ohio was close, don’t discount the chance of flipping Pennsylvania.
But in general, barring big surprises, locking down Colorado and Nevada and holding the line in Ohio wins this election.
“don’t discount the chance of flipping Pennsylvania.”
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Bush lost in MI in ‘04 by 3% (160,000 votes). Depending on how things play out in the Kwame Kilpatrick scandal (the democratice mayor of Detroit) I could see it flipping to McCain as well.
Mitt Romney could help out here. As does Palin (NRA, pro drilling, husband union guy)