Posted on 09/03/2008 7:47:46 AM PDT by abb
U.S. newsprint demand continued to decline at double-digit rates in July, but exports are helping give the market some support, according to data released last week by the Pulp and Paper Products Council (PPPC).
Newsprint consumption by U.S. daily newspapers dropped 15.7% in July vs a year ago, bringing the year-to-date total to 3.176 million tonnes, down 14.0% from the first seven months of 2008.
Some of the drop in July was due to last July having one additional Sunday. However, year-to-date last year and this year had the same number of Sundays. Sunday newspapers tend to be heavier than daily newspapers.
If adjusted to account for last July's fifth Sunday, the decline in North American demand for newsprint would have been in the single digits, Citi Investment Research indicated in an Aug. 26 report.
North American demand for newsprint fell by 11.8% year over year in July, to 645,000 tonnes, bringing the year-to-date total to 4.709 million tonnes, a year-over-year decline of 8.8%. Total U.S. demand for Jan.-July 2008 was 4.155 million tonnes, down 9.1% from a year ago. Total U.S. consumption of newsprint dropped 15.3% in July vs last July and was down year over year by 11.2% through this year's first seven months, to 4.059 million tonnes, PPPC reported.
Price Hikes Slipping Newsprint producers in North America have had a successful seven-month run up in $20/tonne monthly price hikes but the continual decline in U.S. newsprint consumption is beginning to give buyers an edge.
“The pace of demand decline suggests that further capacity reductions and conversions may be needed to push newsprint past $800/tonne by the end of 2008,” noted Deutsche Bank in an Aug. 25 report.
In August, only $15/tonne of the $20/tonne price increase was pushed through, according to some sources. CIBC World Markets, however, reported Aug. 22 that AbitibiBowater Inc. said it was successful with the $20/tonne hikes “for first eight months of this year and anticipates implementing the September $20/tonne price increase.”
U.S. prices for 30-lb newsprint currently are $720-$735/tonne, based on various sources. FOEX Indexed Ltd. today released its indexes for last week. With no changes reported from the previous week, the U.S. indexes remained at $706.89/tonne for 30-lb newsprint and $755.72/tonne for 27.7-lb newsprint.
AbitibiBowater announced this week another $60/tonne price hike for newsprint in the U.S., to take effect in monthly installments of $20/tonne through the fourth quarter, but the full implementation of those hikes now appears to hinge on further newsprint capacity cuts. “We expect that, absent of further curtailment/conversion announcements, newsprint buyers will strongly resist the latest increase,” noted Salman Partners in an Aug. 22 report.
On Aug. 8, Salman Partners indicated that AbitibiBowater had decided to hold off on any further newsprint conversion or curtailment announcements until after it negotiates a new labor contract with the Communications, Energy and Paperworkers Union of Canada in April 2009.
Inventories gaining Meanwhile, newsprint buyers appear to be building inventories. Stocks at U.S. dailies at the end of July were up 44,000 tonnes from the previous month, to 712,000 tonnes, but still down 23,000 tonnes from a year ago. All U.S. users' inventories grew 27,000 tonnes in July, to 803,000 tonnes, which is 30,000 tonnes lower than a year ago.
During July, North American newsprint mill stocks also grew, but only by 21,000 tonnes, to 350,000 tonnes. This was still 164,000 tonnes lower than a year ago. During 2003-2007, the average North American mill inventories at month end was 360,000 tonnes, according to the PPPC.
Mill inventories were up despite a drop in production. In July, North American newsprint production was 898,000 tonnes, down 8.6% from last July. Through the first seven months, 6.060 million tonnes of newsprint was made in North America, a year-over-year decline of 9.2%.
Total newsprint shipments within North American dropped 11.7% year over year in July and were down 8.8% year-to-date, to 4.699 million tonnes. North American shipments to overseas customers, though, advanced by 20.1% in July, and were up 2.4% year-to-date, to 1.404 million tonnes.
In the overseas markets, North American newsprint shipments to all but Western Europe (down 4.2%) were up year-over-year in July, including Latin America (up 8.1%), Japan (up 73.6%) and non-Japan Asia (up 47.7%). Year-to-date, though, only Latin America (up 24.5%) remained ahead of a year ago, with decreases reported in Western Europe (down 19.8%) and Japan (down 13.9%).
CEPIPRINT, the Assn. of European Publication Paper Producers, reported this week that European newsprint demand increased by 2.3% year over year in July, to 870,000 tonnes.
Global outlook bullish Citi Investment Research indicated in an Aug. 25 report that global newsprint demand fell by 4% in this year's first half, but expects the improvement started in July -- possibly due to the Olympics -- to continue in August.
In an Aug. 26 report, Citi Investment Research stated that North American newsprint mills are able to sell any excess newsprint offshore, often at higher prices than domestically. It is bullish on the outlook for global newsprint markets.
FOEX reported today that European newsprint producers are planning to raise prices at the start of 2009. The strengthening of the Euro caused FOEX's price index for 45 g newsprint to drop by 39 cents last week, to E499.68/tonne.
U.S. newsprint mills continue to run better than their Canadian counterparts, PPPC statistics indicate. In July, U.S. newsprint production totaled 372,000 tonnes, a year-over year decline of 6.3%, compared to Canada's 526,000 tonnes, down 10.1% year over year. During Jan.-July 2008, U.S. mills produced 2.514 million tonnes of newsprint, down 4.7% from a year earlier, while Canada's newsprint output of 3.546 million tonnes was down 12.2%.
In July, Canadian mills operated at 88% vs 93% last July, while U.S. mills ran at 95%, the same as a year ago. Through the first seven months, the operating rate in Canada was 88% and in the U.S., 95%; the operating rate for both was 94% a year ago.
The total North American newsprint operating rate was 91% in both July and year-to-date. This compares to 93% last July and 94% through the first seven months of 2007.
While total newsprint shipments are down for both the U.S. and Canada, both are benefiting from the increase in exports in July. U.S. overseas shipments totaled 60,000 tonnes in July and 318,000 tonnes year-to-date, up 28.7% and 12.5%, respectively vs a year ago.
A 17.4% improvement year-over-year in July's Canadian overseas newsprint shipments, to 176,000 tonnes, brought the year-to-date total to 1.086 million tonnes, about flat (down 0.2%) versus a year ago, PPPC reported.
ping
The sooner the better for America.
India and China are UP in newsprint but in the U.S. the web took over plus I believe that the U.S. is tired of the LEFTIST spin which dominates the printed media.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/webscout/2008/09/the-old-wb-and.html
Web Scout: Spinning through online entertainment and connected culture.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/03/arts/television/03lett.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
Letterman Baffled by NBC’s Replacing of Leno
http://www.observer.com/2008/media/where-did-bloomberg-buy-new-york-times-rumor-come
Where Did That Bloomberg to Buy New York Times Rumor Come From?
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-na-onthemedia3-2008sep03,0,1919168.story
Palin hubbub leads Republican delegates to target ‘liberal media’
http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080903/BIZ/809030360/1058/NEWS0102
Borgman starts new chapter
http://gannettblog.blogspot.com/
In newspapers, dramatic power shift
http://newsosaur.blogspot.com/
Free papers are fizzling, too
Our local paper, the Register Guard here in Eugene, Oregon has gotten thinner and smaller. Not to mention that it’s gone to .50 cents for the daily, and almost 2.00 for the Sunday edition.
I read news on line. I get it faster, more of it, and I am better informed and knowledgeable of things then I was as just a newspaper reader.
I also got rid of the TV. I prefer the Internet to that sea of useless commercials and programming fluff.
I hope all those rat bastards go under.
bookmark
McClatchy (Sac BEE, Miami Herald, etc) will be insolvent by the end of this year. Tribune (LA Times, Orlando Sentinel, etc) maybe before then. NY Times Co., as we know it today, won’t last much longer.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122039884622592871.html?mod=2_1567_topbox
Glut of Films Hits Hollywood
Movies Vie for Attention and Losses Mount; ‘Rambow’ Lessons
By LAUREN A.E. SCHUKER and PETER SANDERS
September 3, 2008; Page A1
HOLLYWOOD — When Meg Ryan and Antonio Banderas signed up to star in an independently produced comedy-action movie called “My Mom’s New Boyfriend,” the film’s backers figured they had a slam dunk — a modestly priced film with bankable stars that would surge at the box office.
The producers say the $17 million movie scored well in test screenings in the U.S. this spring and did decent business in Spain, Israel and Russia. But the U.S. distributor, Sony Corp.’s Sony Pictures, quietly sent the movie straight to DVD on June 17. “I believe that three years ago this movie absolutely would have been on screens, if for no other reason than the actors involved,” says George Gallo, who wrote and directed the film.
snip
Pit-ty
“I read news on line. I get it faster, more of it, and I am better informed and knowledgeable of things then I was as just a newspaper reader.”
...and you don’t have to wash your hands after handling.
"Skyboxen." ROTFL. New media calls it an "Eagle Cam."Palin hubbub leads Republican delegates to target 'liberal media'
... The chants and finger-wagging were directed toward the sky boxes. ...
http://www.tvsquad.com/2008/09/02/cbs-to-rule-people-magazine/
CBS to rule People magazine
http://www.newsandtech.com/issues/2008/September/nt/09-08_medianews.htm
MediaNews Group blazing trail toward
targeted newspaper
http://www.newsandtech.com/issues/2008/September/nt/09-08_plantsclose.htm
Papers shut plants in bid to cut costs
http://www.forbes.com/media/2008/08/28/dnc-politics-politico-biz-media-cx_ja_cl_0828dnc-politico.html
Politico’s Moment
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i31c3e88c0eab00bdb19d6059aca92339
Blogs changing face of pol coverage
Friggin liberal tree-killers.
Politico's Moment
... The site's biggest online advertiser in 2008--by far--has been the Obama campaign, accounting for an estimated $444,000 of the company's $2,447,000 in Internet ad sales since January, according to data from Nielsen AdRelevance. No. 2? Another seasonal client, the Democratic National Committee, which spent $127,700. VandeHei insists the Nielsen data are flawed and tell just part of the story. Only 20% of site revenues come from election-oriented advertisements, he says.
So how are they paying for all this? There's the undisclosed start-up nut from Allbritton Communications and the mostly free, 25,000-circulation newspaper in Washington, which--despite the Web site's high profile--accounts for 60% to 70% of revenues, VandeHei says, while not disclosing details. ...
As for news after the election, the veteran political reporter says there's going to be no shortage of things to cover. The real challenge is paying for it.
ya got yur pulp fiction and then ya got yur modern day leftist media..
hard to separate one from the other these days. good riddance to dinomedia trash.
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