Posted on 09/08/2008 4:45:34 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
Correct. It has no mystical powers. It is not like “insiders” are betting big, “secret” money on inside knowledge.
If you look at this, basically Obama has to play defense. There really aren’t any solid red states he can win, and the swing states like MI, WI, CO, etc, are leaning his way. This will have an effect on his campaign. Being on defense is not very Presidential.
I certainly hope and believe the McCain trend will continue, but for a nightmare scenario, assume that all votes go as tabulated here, with the exception of Colorado. We wind up with a 268-268 tie. The current House of Representatives gets to make the choice, though McCain-Palin might very well have a nice popular vote majority. And Colorado is closest to switching of the blue states.
I just looked at the map on RCP. If you select “No Toss Ups”, it has Obama with 273. Simply swinging CO or NM (which is likely), McCain wins today. We shall see what will transpire. And what a ride it will be.
Actually, one new bidder can move it sustantially.
Oops, make that a 269-269 tie if Colo switched.
I'm not aware of that.
“California can split their electoral vote now right?”
If they could, you would definitely know about it... Cuz McCain could snag at least 20-25 extra EVs there if they did split it up.
“California can split their electoral vote now right?”
No, all 55 EVs go to the statewide winner in the general election. In this case, it will be Obama because McCain has next to no chance of carrying California.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-electoral7dec07,0,5337231.story?coll=la-home-center
Never mind. I found it.
McCain/Palin will win NV and CO putting them at 274.
I knew OHIO would be in the McCain column this week. There is major McCain-Palin excitement here!
| Week | GOP Electoral Votes |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|
| 7-Jan | 241.05 | 20.18% |
| 14-Jan | 235.29 | 14.70% |
| 21-Jan | 234.76 | 14.66% |
| 28-Jan | 236.58 | 15.44% |
| 4-Feb | 236.26 | 15.41% |
| 11-Feb | 237.25 | 16.43% |
| 18-Feb | 230.61 | 12.69% |
| 25-Feb | 233.56 | 15.44% |
| 3-Mar | 234.54 | 16.27% |
| 10-Mar | 240.26 | 22.49% |
| 17-Mar | 244.58 | 24.60% |
| 24-Mar | 249.73 | 28.50% |
| 31-Mar | 252.18 | 30.87% |
| 7-Apr | 248.97 | 27.60% |
| 14-Apr | 249.24 | 27.62% |
| 21-Apr | 247.86 | 25.60% |
| 28-Apr | 251.65 | 29.06% |
| 5-May | 250.84 | 28.07% |
| 12-May | 252.31 | 29.25% |
| 19-May | 248.73 | 25.99% |
| 26-May | 250.15 | 27.10% |
| 2-Jun | 248.98 | 26.46% |
| 9-Jun | 247.87 | 26.81% |
| 16-Jun | 248.41 | 26.06% |
| 23-Jun | 233.92 | 15.76% |
| 30-Jun | 234.84 | 16.21% |
| 14-Jul | 237.43 | 19.14% |
| 21-Jul | 231.61 | 14.15% |
| 28-Jul | 233.21 | 15.18% |
| 4-Aug | 234.45 | 16.45% |
| 11-Aug | 242.62 | 21.56% |
| 18-Aug | 246.64 | 25.20% |
| 25-Aug | 248.30 | 25.59% |
| 01-Sep | 255.23 | 32.44% |
| 08-Sep | 254.33 | 30.70% |
Rasmussen put out a bunch of new polls yesterday and today (Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana, and Virginia). Rasmussen suspects that Florida is an outlier due to Hurricane Gustov, so I'm not counting it today.
For comparison, the results of 20,000 simulations of another model based on Rasmussen state-by-state polls as of 9-Sep are: GOP Electoral Votes = 261.95, Probability of 270 = 34.88%. The sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that a 1% reduction in Obama polling and a 1% increase in McCain polling results in 285.26 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 80.10% chance of winning.
If you believe that polls over-sample Democrats, then McCain has already passed the 270 electoral vote mark, if the election were held today.
-PJ
I thought this was going to be an actual analysis with state by state polling - I should have known better.
Seriously - when did the opinion of gambling addicts become a legitimate substitute for actual information?
Rubbish!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.