If it is a real red state, that shouldn’t make that much difference. Bush beat Gore by 25% in 2000. Montana now has two Dem senators and the Dems control the state senate [26 Dems/24 Reps] and are just one vote shy of controlling the House [50 Reps/49 Dems/1(I)]. Something is happening there.
It’s all the liberal wackos that have moved there from California.
And of course, the wackiest leftist of them all, Ted Turner owns a ton of land there.
I think it is shifting slowly, but I’m not on the ground so I can’t imagine why. The state is more libertarian than conservative from what I gather. There’s little excuse for the kind of erosion you point out.
I think that there are two reasons for that.
One, I think the GOP has had some ethical problems.
Two, the Democrats are pretty conservative.
On the Presidential level, the State should remain Republican especially since the Democrats have two far left liberals running for President.