2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, September 15, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[CommerceComet]

This is more accurate than a POLL because it is a MARKET. Markets have better predictive records than polls.

However, still less than perfect which means that McCain and VP-candidate Romney still have work to do. ;-)

[Martins kid]

Thank you for the time you put in this. Fascinating.
Excitment is building in Ohio. McCain/PALIN will win this state. It is that common sense, one of us attitude that will do it.

[Political Junkie Too]

Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes or higher.

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
7-Jan	241.05	20.18%
14-Jan	235.29	14.70%
21-Jan	234.76	14.66%
28-Jan	236.58	15.44%
4-Feb	236.26	15.41%
11-Feb	237.25	16.43%
18-Feb	230.61	12.69%
25-Feb	233.56	15.44%
3-Mar	234.54	16.27%
10-Mar	240.26	22.49%
17-Mar	244.58	24.60%
24-Mar	249.73	28.50%
31-Mar	252.18	30.87%
7-Apr	248.97	27.60%
14-Apr	249.24	27.62%
21-Apr	247.86	25.60%
28-Apr	251.65	29.06%
5-May	250.84	28.07%
12-May	252.31	29.25%
19-May	248.73	25.99%
26-May	250.15	27.10%
2-Jun	248.98	26.46%
9-Jun	247.87	26.81%
16-Jun	248.41	26.06%
23-Jun	233.92	15.76%
30-Jun	234.84	16.21%
14-Jul	237.43	19.14%
21-Jul	231.61	14.15%
28-Jul	233.21	15.18%
4-Aug	234.45	16.45%
11-Aug	242.62	21.56%
18-Aug	246.64	25.20%
25-Aug	248.30	25.59%
01-Sep	255.23	32.44%
08-Sep	254.33	30.70%
14-Sep	272.47	51.00%

Rasmussen put out a bunch of new polls yesterday and today.

For comparison, the results of 20,000 simulations of another model based on Rasmussen state-by-state polls as of 15-Sep are: GOP Electoral Votes = 275.60, Probability of 270 = 62.48%. The sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that a 1% reduction in Obama polling and a 1% increase in McCain polling results in 303.16 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 95.68% chance of winning.

-PJ

[word_warrior_bob]

Using 270towin.com I have it McCain 359 Obama 159

[Political Junkie Too]

That's a neat site. I ran a simulation, and it came back 274-264 McCain. I'll have to look at it some more.

-PJ

[fhayek]

As of this week, McCain has all of the states that start with ‘A’. Obama has all the states that start with ‘C’. The Dems have all the ‘New’ states, but we have all the ‘North’ and ‘South’ states. We own the ‘T’ states, but the ‘V’ and ‘W’ states are evenly split. There are eight ‘M’ states, and Obama has the edge 5 to 3. Tune in tomorrow for more in depth political analysis. ;^)

[jerry557]

Rasmussen poll just out show McCain now up in Colorado by 2 points. McCain was trailing by 3 pts last week.

So its moving in our direction.

[Jet Jaguar]

Finally, McCain breaks 270

[Kevmo]

This morning there’s a new graphic on the Intrade login screen: it looks like your electoral map of Intrade results.

McCain has slight edge on the map, but Obama has retaken the lead for the individual pres. contracts. That might mean an arbitrage opportunity somewhere.

[Momaw Nadon]

This morning there’s a new graphic on the Intrade login screen: it looks like your Electoral map of Intrade results.

Impressive!

I like the way they did it.

They even calculated the weighted average in addition to the full Electoral Vote totals.

GMTA!

:-)

[edh]

“Tune in tomorrow for more in depth political analysis. ;^)”

This is perhaps the greatest analysis I have ever seen.

Thank you for the laugh :-)!

[Kevmo]

Intrade currently has Obama 291 to McCain 247. I think they’ve swung too far in the other direction, so there’s money on the table. All one has to do is pick a poll they trust and follow those results, betting where there’s a difference between that poll and Intrade. Intrade is full of Obamessiah Worshippers, so they probably have a strong bias reflected in their trading.

And, since the Intrade electoral map was just posted only a day or so ago, that’s the first thing Intraders see, so they’ll move on a state that has the highest likelihood of bumping over to Obama in order to boost the results they see on that page. The emotional content of the trade is VERY high right now, and there’s money to be made off of these liberals.