This poll makes me feel better about the OR presidential poll taken simultaneously. I don’t believe that Smith is up by only 1%, which (if I’m right) means that Rasmussen’s sample must have skewed more liberal than the electorate. Since Ras used the same sample for its presidential poll showing Obama up by 51%-47%, I think that it’s likely that McCain and Obama are at least tied in OR (which would jibe with the recent poll showing McCain within 2% in WA).
You are correct. Smith is likely leading by 3-5, minimum. Therefore, McCain and Obama are likely tied.
And, that’s not even accounting for 4-5% Bradley effect.