You are probably right. Without Palin it would be much worse.
When the economy tanked and the severity of the problems facing the country became increasingly clear, many millions of moderate people had second thoughts about McCain because he chose Palin.
Polls have repeatedly shown that most Americans (including conservatives) do not believe that the Gov. is capable of assuming duties in the oval office today. (maybe someday, but not today)
Because of McCain's age, millions are not rejecting republican policies, they are rejecting Gov. Palin.