I don’t think that this poll is a case where it is slanted so much as Battleground is starting to look like they have no idea what they are doing to obtain decent sample data this election cycle. Now this may be a problem with all of the polls, but I think common sense says that this is a serious outlier when you consider the rest of the polls.
“Now this may be a problem with all of the polls, but I think common sense says that this is a serious outlier when you consider the rest of the polls”
I tend to agree. It is all about the turnout models. Zogby is showing a 2% Democratic edge in their turnout model and is showing a 6% Obama lead. Gallup’s turnout theory is higher for Obama and they show a 10% lead. The same is probably true for GW/Battleground. IBD/TIPP is guessing that turnout will be the same as 2004 (even between Dems and Republicans,) so they have the closest race showing Obama up by 2%.
If one is realistic IBD is probably off this year, Zogby seems like the most realistic, predicting a 2% edge for the Dems.