Posted on 10/26/2008 10:19:11 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
As you settle in with your bowl of popcorn and drink to watch the quadrennial competition for America's highest office, you need a scorecard. You are eagerly anticipating seeing the national map light up in red and blue--a welcome reminder of our federalist design--but what should you be watching for? How will you know whether John McCain is doing well enough to have any shot of pulling off the upset?
There are only ten states that were decided by 5 percent or less in each of the last two presidential elections: Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Oregon (yes, Oregon), Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, and Florida (which was decided by 5.01 percent in 2004 if you're nitpicking). Not surprisingly, these states will be important in 2008.
But it's not quite as simple as that. Mostly because of widespread dissatisfaction with President Bush, the political landscape has become more fertile for the Democratic party over the last four years. In addition, the Democrats, who have had a habit of nominating candidates with rather modest personal appeal (e.g., Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, John Kerry) are putting forward a candidate who draws 200,000 people to hear him speak. Sure it was in Berlin, but still . . . Whatever his genuine merits as a statesman, Barack Obama is clearly a more formidable candidate than John Kerry--and probably than Al Gore.
In light of these changed factors in 2008, it seems rather unlikely that Obama will fail to win any states that either Gore or Kerry succeeded in winning--let alone any that both men won. So where does that leave McCain? The good news for the Republican is that he doesn't need to win any states that Bush didn't win. The bad news is that he probably won't, and so he needs to win all of the states that Bush swept in the last two elections.
McCain needs to take Florida, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, and, most dauntingly, Ohio. He needs to go 8-0 in these states--in addition to winning all of the other states that Bush swept (which he should). If one of those eight lights up for Obama on election night, it's lights out for McCain.
It'll be lights out, that is, unless McCain can somehow win a state that Bush didn't sweep in 2000 and 2004. This is a tall order. The most likely possibility would seem to be New Mexico, New Hampshire, or Wisconsin. Over the last two elections combined, Wisconsin was the closest state, with an average margin of victory of 0.3 percent, but it went to the Democrat each time. New Mexico, which borders McCain's home state of Arizona, was the second closest, with an average margin of 0.4 percent, and Bush won it in 2004. New Hampshire, where McCain has twice done very well in GOP primaries, was decided by just 1.3 percent in each of the last two elections, with Bush winning in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. But if Obama does better nationally than Kerry or Gore did, which at this point looks like a near-certainty (especially as regards Kerry), then these states that were so tightly decided in the past two elections will likely swing his way. And polls currently suggest that Obama is doing even better in these three states than he is doing nationwide.
As for Pennsylvania, in the past dozen presidential elections, spanning half a century, the Democrats have always done better in Pennsylvania than they have done nationally--all 12 times. Yet, in the first five weeks after the Republican convention, the McCain-Palin ticket held as many events in Pennsylvania as they held in crucial Ohio, more than they held in equally crucial Florida, and more than they held in must-win Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, and Missouri combined. Do they know something we don't?
So picking up a win in Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Wisconsin, or New Hampshire is a long-shot proposition; winning Oregon, Iowa, or Minnesota is even more so. So that brings us back to those states he must win, the eight states Bush swept but which are hotly contested in 2008: Florida, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio.
If McCain wins these eight states, along with the others he's expected to win more easily, but without pulling off any upsets in likely Obama territory--then that will give him 274 electoral votes, four more than needed. But there's no margin for error; each of these states is worth at least five electoral votes. Right now, polls show McCain to be down in nearly all eight, but generally doing quite a bit better in them than he is nationally. If he can pull to within 2 to 3 percentage points of Obama nationally, the Democratic leads in these states should more or less evaporate.
With such a national surge, McCain should win North Carolina and West Virginia, which Bush won in 2000 and 2004 by an average of 11.1 percentage points. He should also have a good shot in Missouri, Virginia, and Colorado, states that Bush won by an average of 6.6 percentage points--although Obama has been running very strongly in polls in those states, particularly the latter two. McCain also has a decent shot in Nevada, which also borders Arizona and which Bush won by an average of just over 3 percentage points.
That leaves Florida and Ohio, states that Bush won by an average of 2.5 to 3 percentage points. If McCain loses either, his prospects of winning the election will fall to just a few notches above the lottery ticket line. At the least, he'd then have to sweep Wisconsin, New Mexico, and New Hampshire--or win Minnesota or Oregon or Iowa in place of one of those three--or else win Pennsylvania. Bush went 3-11 in those seven states and didn't come within 2.5 percentage points of winning Pennsylvania either time. Let's just say it plainly: McCain must win both Florida and Ohio.
What if McCain were to go 7-1 in his eight key states, with the loss being in either Nevada or West Virginia? If he didn't pull off any upsets elsewhere, that would put him and Obama in a dead heat at 269 electoral votes and throw the election into the House of Representatives. The same result would occur if McCain were to lose Ohio but win Wisconsin and New Mexico.
Would it be too much to hope that, in spite of having supported Obama on the campaign trail, Bill or Hillary Clinton would then give a dramatic speech describing McCain as the lesser of two evils, thereby leading to a McCain presidency and a duel between one of the Clintons and Obama? Probably.
-------------------------------------------------------
Jeffrey H. Anderson is a former professor of American government at the Air Force Academy. His college football rankings are used in determining which teams will play in the BCS national championship game.
He is also the most questionable candidate to ever come down the pike.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
McCain can lose Iowa as well as New Mexico and still win.
274 to 264
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
We don’t need PA or NH.
I’d rather be in McCain’s position than Obama’s position.
He has to turn either NV, VA, or CO.
All red states. Mason Dixon has it within the MOE in all three.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
“Whatever his genuine merits as a statesman, Barack Obama is clearly a more formidable candidate than John Kerry and probably than Al Gore.”
What a bunch of wordiness. Barack Obama is not a statesman, a STATESMAN is a notable figure of state who has had a long and respected career in politics, UNLIKE Obie...
CO looks to be a pure toss-up / slightly tilting Obama perhaps.
I agree. It will be interesting to see if early voting continues to trend toward Barama next week.
I suspect it will trail off.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Palin called it. She does know something, straight from UPSTAIRS. Just trust me on this one and no I'm not nuts. McCain/Palin will win PA.
Yes, Jeffrey H. Anderson takes a lot for granted.
Tough odds, but if anyone can do it, it’s McCain.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
and John Kerry is EXACTLY the reason why Obama will lose. He's more elitist than Kerry, by a wide margin. America has always viscerally hated elitists. For all of Gore's many negatives, he wasn't elitist. Boring to a fault, but not elitist.
Barrack's arrogance, hubris and elitism will be his undoing. it will cost him PA. It will cost him NH. It will cost him 1 EV in ME.
Its Stunning.
The MSM needs to be laughed out of business.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.