Most likely tie scenario.
Posted on 11/02/2008 12:41:14 PM PST by The Hound Passer
What if the Electoral College ended up tied, 269-269, prolonging this Alice-in-Wonderland campaign? That's what would happen if Barack Obama won every state that went for Al Gore in 2000 plus Colorado, or if Obama carried every state that John Kerry won in 2004 plus Iowa, New Mexico, and fast-changing Nevada.
If the electoral vote is tied, the Constitution's 12th Amendment requires that the election be thrown into the newly elected House. There, each state, regardless of population, would have one vote. The votes of 26 states would be required to elect a president. Otherwise, the Senate-elected vice president would act as president until the House could agree.
We obviously don't know the makeup of the 111th Congress, but we do know that Democrats now control 27 delegations, Republicans have 21, and two are evenly divided. So I asked my colleague, David Wasserman, the House editor of The Cook Political Report, to game out what would happen if the election were thrown into the House. He concluded that it might not be easy to reach 26 votes, given that a lot of Democrats serve districts with a long history of supporting the Republican presidential nominee.
Would North Dakota and South Dakota's at-large Democratic representatives -- Earl Pomeroy and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin -- vote with their electorate or their party? Although Obama is competitive in North Dakota, he is still likely to come up a bit short and has virtually no chance of winning in South Dakota. In her 2004 campaign, Herseth Sandlin indicated that she would be open to voting for the Republican nominee -- President Bush in that case -- in the event of a tie in the Electoral College.
In half of the states, control of the delegation looks firm. Fourteen seem solidly in the Democratic column in a House unit-vote election: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. And 11 seem firmly Republican: Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming.
Another six states are leaning or are likely to vote Democratic (Arkansas, Colorado, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin), bringing the Democratic count to 20. Likewise, five are leaning or are likely to go Republican (Florida, Idaho, Louisiana, Michigan, and Missouri), raising the GOP total to 16.
But 14 states are best described as toss-ups. That includes Mississippi, where Democrats enjoy a 3-1 delegation lead but two conservative Democrats would be hard-pressed to vote for Obama. In Nevada and New Mexico, very competitive House races will determine whether 2-1 GOP delegation leads will be reversed. The other toss-ups are Alaska, Arizona, Delaware, Indiana, Kansas, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Tennessee.
Wasserman argues that having to decide the presidential contest would put plenty of House delegations in uncomfortable positions. For example, if Democrat Ethan Berkowitz were to unseat longtime GOP Rep. Don Young in Alaska's only House seat, Berkowitz would almost certainly seal his own defeat in 2010 if he stuck with his party and voted against a GOP ticket including the state's popular governor. GOP Rep. Michael Castle, who represents Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden as Delaware's only representative, would face the same choice.
And, if Democrats were to clinch a delegation majority in Arizona by protecting both of their vulnerable seats and picking off an open seat in the northern part of the state, five Democrats would have to choose between voting for Obama and voting for their state's candidate and choice for president, John McCain.
There is no way to anticipate how members would weigh considerations such as the outcome of their state's vote or the national popular vote. But for Obama, winning the support of 26 House delegations could be harder than it sounds. For one thing, four of the toss-up states in this scenario have even-numbered House delegations, meaning that intra-delegation deadlocks could reduce the number of states available to reach the magic number 26.
So I felt obligated to bush up on my civics to find out what the exact procedure is. I knew the presidential race was tossed to the House and the VP to the Senate, but that is all I knew. It's not that neat, but it seems to favor McCain.
Each state gets just ONE vote. Each state delegation has to agree on who they will support, Obama or McCain. So even though the D's run the House there are a lot of Ds from "conservative" districts. Would they vote for Obama even though the district voted McCain? Hard to say, but surely it would be a career death sentence.
Anyway, I thought this was an interesting article. You may want to bookmark just in case, but lets just hope NV, CO, VA, etc pull this one off for McCain.
How many states have 1 D and 1 R in the Senate? I don't see how those states can even cast a vote.
This election won’t end in an electoral college tie. There are only two possible outcomes in this election:
1. All the undecideds are really McCain votes and McCain will win this election by a 4-6% Popular Vote Margin. He will take all the Bush states minus New Mexico and will pickup PA, NH, and WI.
2. All the undecideds are really non votes and Obama will win by 2-4% nationally. He will take PA, CO, NV, IA, NM, NH and VA. He will win the electoral college handily.
I believe, and statistics and polling internal validate, that the undecideds are going to vote and vote McCain heavily. I sincerely believe scenario number 1 will happen. The numbers support it.
Today’s IBD/TIPP poll shows you what you need to know. Obama will between 46 and 47.5% of the popular vote.
When was this particular tie breaking formula adopted? I’m assuming (perhaps erroneously) that it has changed as more states were admitted to the union.
There would be a lot of deals cut, bargaining, fineagling going on. That is the history of how it happened in the past. As Bismark said, it’s like making sausage.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Most likely tie scenario.
It won’t. The elctoral college will take on look at the “certificate” and say, say Bambi, Kenyans don’t qualify....
I am confused. This statement makes it seem like we could get Obama/Palin depending upon how the House and Senate vote. Is this correct?
Sorry, but that won't work. The new President would have to be elected with a majority of the state delegations voting not just a plurality. A state delegation not voting adds to the denominator without adding a vote for either candidate in the numerator.
Interesting scenario, but anyone who believes that the House Reps wont be outwitted by and more limp wristed than the Dems havent been paying attention. With cries of racism for every McCain vote, the Reps dont have a chance IMHO....
Yes, that is EXACTLY correct. Man, would that make for an interesting 4 years?
Most people don’t realize that the VP DOES NOT serve at the pleasure of the President. There is NO WAY that Barry could force her out. He’d be stuck with her.
At 269-269, Soros would make an offer a McCain elector couldn’t refuse and it’d be 270 to 268.
Of Maine's 4 total electors, two are chosen by popular vote within the boundaries of that state's 2 congressional districts. From what I've read here, McCain is likely to win one of those electors. That means a 270-268 McCain victory (hypothetically).
If there is no President or VP selected by Jan 20, guess who becomes acting president in the meantime.
It's been in the constitution since the beginning and been used twice.
Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr tied in 1800, and Thomas Jefferson was elected by the House.
In 1824, John Quincy Adams lost the electoral vote to Andrew Jackson, but since Jackson failed to win a majority of the electors the decision went to the House which elected John Q Adams.
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