Posted on 11/03/2008 9:27:10 AM PST by rwilliam
In Ohio, Early Voters May Give Obama Enough Running Head Start That McCain Can't Catch Him on Election Day: Barack Obama 48%, John McCain 46%, in SurveyUSA's final tracking poll released Election Eve. Obama leads 5:3 among those who have already voted. McCain leads 5:4 among those who have not yet voted. Obama led in the past 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls, but by tapering margins. Obama led by 5 on 10/14/08, by 4 on 10/28/08 and by 2 today. It is possible that McCain could overtake Obama in the final 24 hours, but that would require young voters to stay home on Election Day and white voters from Dayton, Cincinnati and along the West Virginia border to show up in larger numbers than they have so far indicated. Research underwritten by WCMH-TV Columbus, WKYC-TV Cleveland and WHIO-TV Dayton. 800 adults interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/02/08 yielded 744 registered voters and 660 likely voters.
Democrat - 43% Republican - 37% Independent - 19%
For the record, here are the party affiliation numbers for the 2004 election:
Republican - 40% Democrat - 35% Independent - 25%
So, this poll is based on a net change of 11% towards the Democrats compared to 2004!
In any event though, the poll includes a 6% gap in party affiliation towards the Democrats.
The poll results were as follows:
Obama - 48% McCain - 46%
So, based on that, here is how well each candidate is performing OVER their party affiliation percentage:
Obama - 5% greater than Democratic party affiliation percentage McCain - 9% greater than Republican party affiliation percentage
That’s right! McCain is outpacing the party affiliation percentage by +4% greater than Obama!
If Republicans turn out to vote in great numbers tomorrow, this election will be very, very close. So, each and everyone of us needs to do our part to make that happen!
-Bob
Are they counting who the votes are for or just the party affiliation?
McCain leads 5:4 among those who have not yet voted. More people haven't voted than have.
There is no doubt to anyone looking that McCain will get more D’s and I’s to vote for him than Fauxbama will get R’s and I’s to vote for him.
Fauxbama’s entire campaign has been based on a false premise that he can boost D turnout and depress R’s. Not going to happen folks.
McCain’s taking the White House.
Internals look great.
SurveyUSA doesn’t do any weighting. They use whatever sample they get. I think this looks like a great poll for us in Ohio.
Even with voter fraud Obama isn’t swinging a 11% Party ID in Ohio from 2004. The GOP base is fired up!
Prove them wrong! Get out and VOTE!
“It is possible that McCain could overtake Obama in the final 24 hours, but that would require young voters to stay home on Election Day”
Just like young voters have done in EVERY election in history? SHOCKING, simply SHOCKING...
By the way, my wife and I are 2 of the McCain voters that will be voting in OH tomorrow! :-)
-Bob
Ohio has a republican legislature, republican justices, and is historically a republican state.
Why are they saying that the democrats have a higher party ID than do republicans. It’s simply not true for this state.
An 11% Party ID swing in 4 years? If that turns out to be true, we are looking at a LONG time in the wilderness as conservatives. I don’t think it is true, and hope it isn’t true. But if it is....we are Screwed.
No doubt Obama has a big lead in early voting in OH, but that doesn’t mean victory.
In FL, Dems have a lead in early voting. We need to keep in mind in 2004, the GOP did and won. So, that could mean something, but it may not depending upon who they are voting for. One poll says many early voters voted McCain in FL despite the Dem advantage, while another said the early voters voted 60/40 for Obama.
Frankly, who knows. I couldn’t find any polls of early voters for OH. Let’s just hope the ones showing Dems voting McCain are correct. We need it to be for us to win.
Not-so-subtle plea for the slacktivists to show up?
When you say Obama has a lead in early voting what exactly are talking about? Party ID, and exit polling?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Are the actual VOTES for early voted already counted and results already released? OR is it that they are releasing the party affiliation turnout for early voting? For example yesterday I saw something saying Hussein is leading in early voting in Florida by 2.5%, BUT TODAY on Fox I heard that Florida is not releasing the actual early VOTE totals until tomorrow, and that the 2.5% lead is democrat turnout over republicans NOT the actual way people voted, meaning some of those DEMS could be Mac votes (PUMA). Anyone know?
As if you get to vote more than once in Ohio?
Ohio: McCain vs. Obama
2008: OH-1, OH-2, OH-15, OH-16 | 2006: Sen, Gov, OH-1, OH-2, OH-15, OH-18 | 2004: President
Polling Data
Mason-Dixon 10/29 - 10/30 625 LV 4.0 45 47 McCain +2
Mason/Dixon has MCCAIN by 2 over Obama.......
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.