Posted on 11/12/2008 2:25:29 AM PST by cmj328
Memo to New Hampshire Republicans: Don't blame Massachusetts.
New Hampshire's apparent shift from Republican "red" to Democratic "blue" can be primarily attributed to moderates and liberals who have moved to the state from throughout the Northeast, not just the Bay State, according to a University of New Hampshire political science professor.
In fact, the area of the state in which Massachusetts transplants have primarily settled remains red, although it's not as red as it used to be.
UNH Associate Political Science Professor Andrew Smith says the conventional wisdom that blames --or credits, depending on one's point of view --Massachusetts transplants for the shift in New Hampshire's political preferences is inaccurate.
While most transplants to New Hampshire are from Massachusetts, one of several reasons they come to New Hampshire is that they believe Massachusetts is too liberal, Smith said, citing a 2006 UNH study. He said others who migrate here "are from other parts of the Northeast, and if you think of the other New England states and New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, these are all Democratic states and have been for quite some time."
Besides migration, he said, the shift has come as younger people have reached voting age and most identify themselves as Democrats. Plus, said Smith, "a lot of people have moved out or died, and those people were solidly Republican. To put it bluntly, old-time New Hampshire folks are dying."
The new voters
A study he conducted earlier this year with other UNH professors says the "migrants" and those who have turned 18 since 2000 "represent 321,000 potential new voters or about one-third of the residents" eligible to vote last Tuesday.
Analysis of a town-by-town blue and red post-election map of New Hampshire shows the broadest swatch of red is the same southeastern area to which most former Massachusetts residents have moved.
Blue dominates western and northern areas --regions where a higher percentage of New Hampshire natives might be expected --plus the Seacoast, which has traditionally been more liberal than the rest of the state, and Strafford County, where college students and blue collar workers compose a large part of the population.
Red dominates from Hudson east to Seabrook and north to the suburbs of Manchester --formerly known as the "Golden Triangle" of Massachusetts transplants. Some traditionally Republican communities in and near the Lakes Region also remained red, but other towns in the area turned blue.
A few tiny towns in eastern Sullivan and Grafton counties and the North Country remained red, but for the most part, that is Democratic territory.
A look at the voting shows that while Republicans at the top of the ticket did better in the areas where the most new voters are located than in areas where more established voters would be expected to dominate, their "strongholds" were not particularly strong.
Statewide, Barack Obama defeated John McCain, 54 to 44 percent, or by 68,292 votes, according to results issued Friday by the Secretary of State's Office that do not include write-ins.
Obama won in all 10 counties, but McCain performed best in Rockingham County, receiving 49 percent of the vote, to 50 percent for Obama, a difference of about 1,800 votes.
In Hillsborough County, McCain received 97,178 votes to 104,820 for Obama, a percentage split of 47.6 to 51.4 percent. Also close were two counties with small populations. Obama won in Belknap, 16,796 to 16,402; and in Carroll, 15,221 to 13,387.
Shaheen-Sununu race
The U.S. Senate race had similar results. Republican John Sununu barely beat winner Jeanne Shaheen in Rockingham County, 48.8 to 48.2 percent, with 3 percent for Libertarian Ken Blevens. He barely beat her in Carroll County, 49.2 to 47.3 percent.
Shaheen won all other counties, with Hillsborough the closest, 48.8 to 47.8 percent. Her victories were lopsided in Strafford, Merrimack, Chesire, Coos, and Sullivan counties.
Smith also noted that even in southern-tier towns won by McCain and Sununu, the margins were not as wide as they were for Republicans in past years.
For instance, in Salem, where Sununu grew up and where his well-known parents still reside, the Republican received 50.3 percent of the vote, compared to 46.6 percent for Shaheen. McCain received 53.6 percent in Salem, to 45.4 percent for Obama.
In 2002, Sununu beat Shaheen in Salem, 54 to 43 percent, and in 2004, Salem went for George W. Bush over its neighbor, John Kerry, 54.2 percent to 45 percent. Kerry won the state in 2004, 50.2 to 48.8 percent.
Smith said migrants have moved to other parts of the state as well. He said northern Strafford County was more Republican in 2000, and "the whole Upper Valley is expanding. There are a lot of retirees from urban areas."
In Strafford County last Tuesday, Obama beat McCain, 59.7 to 39.4 percent, while in 2004 Kerry beat Bush in the same county, 55.6 to 43.6 percent. Shaheen crushed Sununu, 57.9 to 39.3 percent in Strafford County last week, while in 2002, she beat Sununu in the same county, 52 to 45 percent.
Smith noted that Grafton County, beyond the Upper Valley region, "was once solidly Republican and now there are just a few pockets of small towns in Grafton County that are Republican."
The Shaheen-Sununu race illustrates the shift. In 2002, Shaheen won the county, but only by 50.7 to 46.7 percent. Last Tuesday, she won the county, 57.5 to 39.2 percent.
One Republican strategist said it is too simplistic to take issues and circumstances out of the equation, however.
"Barack Obama and Jeanne Shaheen both ran as anti-taxers and fiscal conservatives," said McCain senior adviser Michael Dennehy. "They had more money to spend and ran in an environment where the Republican label was toxic because of the President, which I hate to say, but it's a reality."
"It's not fair to say it's a blue state when the registration is almost even and even the independents are generally fiscal conservatives."
The Secretary of State's office is expected to have updated voter registration figures out this week. State Democrats are optimistic that for the first time, they will have more registered votes than the Republicans.
The Republican party has incrementally moved enough to the socialist left, in order to expand its voter base, that the red and blue colors have become meaningless. They might as well be merged into one color representing the Republicrat party.
What a shame. I can imagine the Dem state legislators submitting legislation to change the state motto from "Live Free or Die" to "Diversity, Tolerance, and Equality," with a pink rainbow for a state flag.
Sissies and pansies. [grumble]
I was astonished that the man responsible for bringing gay marriage (all but the name) to N.H., Gov. John Lynch, was reelected in a landslide.
Sadly, I think NH is a lost cause.
NH has two congressional districts with District 2, bordering VT, being much more liberal.
District 1 is the (supposedly) more conservative part of the state, from Mnchester to the Seacoast, and it re-elected Commie Carol Che Porter by a healthy margin.
That’s the only litmus test I needed to see. Turn out the lights.
The road back for the GOP does not start in either NH or Iowa.
If the Republican is going to act like a Democrat, then the voters will just elect a Democrat. Why waste time with a pretender when you can have the real thing?
I agree. Especially since Iowa and New Hampshire have open primaries- the GOP basically lets the Democrats and RINOs pick the nominee.
States that have open primaries should have their delegate count cut in half. States in which the GOP is a non-entity should face further reductions.
Rules are Rules! Please always refer to it as “The Peoples Republic of Massachusetts”.
That's part of a plan I've been advocating for the past year or so.
Let the government go broke. The government never cared when it broke entire industries, entire cities, families. Do you think any government agencies, or employee cares about YOU going broke?
Of course not.
It's us or it, folks. I say it goes.
What I find amazing is that after turning their previous
states in s-—holes;they continue the same policies in their
new areas.
If the locusts come from Massachusetts, then blame Massachusetts.
The Peoples Republic of Massachusetts”.How manytimes has Ted Kenndy been reelected?
1962, 1964, 1970, 1976, 1982, 1988, 1994, 2000, 2006... 9 times.
Ha ha, they can’t deny the impact of the liberal invasion.
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