Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Brilliant
#1) The banks were a lot smaller and more numerous in the 20s/30s than now. We've had tons of consolidation.
#2) We've had insane government intervention to prevent banks from failing - guaranteeing 8.5 trillion, accepting $2 trillion in collateral at the Fed, and another $500 billion already spent on the TARP and other bailouts.
Increasing the monetary base by printing was not possible with the gold/silver standard back then. That doesn't mean anything about the economy when it's just printing.

Parallels? Huge 1st year decline in stocks, 2-3% jump in unemployment, 5% jump in broad based unemployment, bank failures by deposit amount was huge, breaking the buck, bonds trading at depression levels, GDP should contract at 7+% rate this quarter and next, 9 consecutive quarters of shrinking corporate profits, etc. Again, we're in the EARLY stages--in 1929/30 they weren't calling it the great depression yet or even a depression for a long time.

80 posted on 01/01/2009 3:19:56 PM PST by rb22982
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 79 | View Replies ]


To: rb22982

All of your parallels remind me of other recessions we’ve had recently, though. You’ve got to show me something that rivals Depression stats before I am convinced that this recession is different from the other recessions we’ve had since the Great Depression.

Sure, the bailout reduced the number of bank failures. That demonstrates that it’s not like the Depression. So did the FDIC. Things have changed since the Great Depression. There are a lot of factors that work against the argument that we’re headed into another Depression. Frankly, I see nothing that resembles the Depression. As I said, the stock market collapse is the closest stat that resembles the Great Depression, and even it does not measure up. Sure, we might yet see a Depression like collapse. But the same could have been said in 2001, 1990, 1982, 1975, and the several recessions we had during the 50’s. Heck, everyone thought we were going back into the Depression when WWII ended. It never materialized, though.


82 posted on 01/01/2009 3:30:32 PM PST by Brilliant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 80 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson