This is the easiest way to summarize the Wave Theory:
The Kondratiev wave by four 'seasons', namely, the Kondratiev Spring (improvement – plateau) and Summer (acceleration – prosperity) of the ascendant period and the Kondratiev Fall (recession – plateau) and Winter (acceleration – depression) of the downward period.
I saw another article that also theorized four periods, similar to these, and tied it in to generations. Each generation had an overall character—Visionary/Idealist, Nomad/Pragmatist....can’t remember the others. It also puts us heading into winter. Interesting stuff. Life has a rhythm. This stuff has some credibility.
There's a reason why God commanded Israel to clear away all the economic debris and restore hereditary properties (i.e., land holdings) every 50 years with the Jubilee.
Shalom.
Interesting. Thanks for posting.
We have entered the downside of the current K-wave. This wave could last anywhere from nine to twenty years as we saw in earlier winter K-waves.
For the Dow Jones Industrials, in theory at least that could translate into a fall back to 1000. While that may be only for some super bears vivid imagination we believe that at a minimum the Dow Jones Industrials will ultimately fall at least 50%-60% or down to around 5000. The highs of January 2000 are but a dream for years to come.
The winter of the K-wave is upon us. See Cliff Droke’s theory on a 2008 to 2014 “hard winter”.
above excerpts from a link in the article...here...
http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm
From another famous Russian,...
The supremacy of finance capital over all other forms of capital means the predominance of the rentier and of the financial oligarchy; it means that a small number of financially “powerful” states stand out among all the rest. The extent to which this process is going on may be judged from the statistics on emissions, i.e., the issue of all kinds of securities. - Vladimir Ilyich Lenin “Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism”
http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1916/imp-hsc/ch03.htm
I should hasten to NB here for Freepers WHY Kondratrieff was purged by Stalin.
Kondratieff was given the job of researching which economic system more efficiently allocated capital and scarce resources, not to discover patterns in the western capitalist systems, per se.
Kondratieff found that, for all our faults and hiccups, the western capitalist economies allocated capital more efficiently, more consistently, than a centrally-planned economy. The nut of his finding was this: When we screw up and mis-allocate funds in the capitalist system, MOST of the time, we mis-allocate small, and we make a lot of little mis-allocations and corrections.
HOWEVER... every 60 years or so, credit builds up to a point where we have huge mis-allocations of capital - oh, and they most often involve land/real estate. Thus it has been in Japan, in the US in 1873, 1933, 2008. In 1873, it was railroad land development; in ‘33, it was farm/ag land. In 2008, it was residential real estate.
For finding this, Stalin purged (ie, killed) Kondratieff.
The most famous side-result of Kondratieff is what we know as the “long wave” or “supercycle” stuff today, too often over-promoted by Elliot Wave adherents.
BTW — what Kondratieff discovered is well known by the Chinese and farmers/ranchers in the US. It is this: wealth does not last past the third generation. Two different cultures, thousands of years apart - have the same maxim - it means that what is going on in the K-cycle isn’t so much an issue of economics as it is of human nature.
Interesting ping.
For later review.
We are heading for “winter”. My father talked of this a lot years ago.
Pinging myself for later reading