NOAA Predicts Solar Cycle 24

NOAA via spaceweather.com ^ | May 8, 2009 | NOAA Press release

[PreciousLiberty]

A new active period of Earth-threatening solar storms will be the weakest since 1928 and its peak is still four years away, after a slow start last December, predicts an international panel of experts led by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Even so, Earth could get hit by a devastating solar storm at any time, with potential damages from the most severe level of storm exceeding $1 trillion. NASA funds the prediction panel.

Solar storms are eruptions of energy and matter that escape from the sun and may head toward Earth, where even a weak storm can damage satellites and power grids, disrupting communications, the electric power supply and GPS. A single strong blast of solar wind can threaten national security, transportation, financial services and other essential functions.

The panel predicts the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a daily sunspot number of 90. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since number 16, which peaked at 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began.

[PreciousLiberty]

This is interesting, most of all since Cycle 24 still hasn't officially started, and this projection is based on it starting last December. The most recent sunspots were from Cycle 23, and as long as that keeps happening Cycle 24 won't officially start. The real start is obvious as sunspot numbers rapidly climb to consistently over 30.

For all of last year, the sun was spotless 73% of the days. So far this year, it's at 86% with no end in sight. In fact, two active areas were detected earlier this week, and it was thought they included sunspots. The first has now rotated into view, and if there was a sunspot, it's gone now. That makes for the eighth straight day in the current streak with no spots...

If the minimum continues on into the autumn, I expect we're looking at a really cold winter this year!

[maryz]

Are we looking at a cool summer?

[Dan(9698)]

cool summer

Yeah man, --- its cool.

[ETL]

From nasa.gov, January 10, 2008...

Solar Cycle 24 Begins

"On January 4, 2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of Solar Cycle 24," says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

Solar activity waxes and wanes in 11-year cycles. Lately, we've been experiencing the low ebb, "very few flares, sunspots, or activity of any kind," says Hathaway. "Solar minimum is upon us."

The previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, peaked in 2000-2002 with many furious solar storms. That cycle decayed as usual to the present quiet leaving solar physicists little to do other than wonder, when would the next cycle begin?

The answer is now [Jan 4, 2008].

"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

The sunspot that appeared on January 4th fits both these criteria. It was high latitude (30 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. NOAA named the spot AR10981, or "sunspot 981" for short.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/10jan_solarcycle24.htm
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"Even more significant is the fact that four of the five sunspot groups belonged to Solar Cycle 24, the long-awaited next installment of the sun's 11-year solar cycle. "October was the first time we've seen sunspots from new Solar Cycle 24 outnumbering spots from old Solar Cycle 23. It's a good sign that the new cycle is taking off."

Old Solar Cycle 23 peaked in 2000 and has since decayed to low levels. Meanwhile, new Solar Cycle 24 has struggled to get started. 2008 is a year of overlap with both cycles weakly active at the same time. From January to September, the sun produced a total of 22 sunspot groups; 82% of them belonged to old Cycle 23. October added five more; but this time 80% belonged to Cycle 24. The tables have turned."

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/07nov_signsoflife.htm
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Sun Shows Signs Of Life: Long-Awaited Solar Cycle 24 Starting To Take Off

ScienceDaily (Nov. 12, 2008) — After two-plus years of few sunspots, even fewer solar flares, and a generally eerie calm, the sun is finally showing signs of life. ..."

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081111230341.htm
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http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

[ETL]

Although sunspot cycle 24 is VERY slow to get underway (decades-long records are being broken --it officially began in Jan 2008), over the course of the past 80-100 years sunspot numbers have actually been through the roof. That is, during each *peak* of the 11-year solar activity cycle throughout this 80-100 yr period. Cycle-24 has now begun but is not expected to get really busy for a couple more years yet (will the high level of sunspot activity continue?). The peak of SC-24 isn't expected until 2011 or 2012. The following which I pieced together, describes a possible connection between solar/sunspot activity and climate.-etl

If you look at the chart below, you will see that sunspot activity (during solar maxes--the individual peaks every apprx 11 yrs) has been relatively high since about 1900 and almost non-existent for the period between about 1625 and 1725. This period is known as the Maunder (sunspot) Minimum or "Little Ice Age".-etl

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From BBC News [yr: 2004]:
"A new [2004] analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years. Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star's activity in the past. They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth's climate became steadily warmer."..."In particular, it has been noted that between about 1645 and 1715, few sunspots were seen on the Sun's surface.

This period is called the Maunder Minimum after the English astronomer who studied it. It coincided with a spell of prolonged cold weather often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Solar scientists strongly suspect there is a link between the two events - but the exact mechanism remains elusive."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3869753.stm
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It's really hard to imagine how this little ball of fire could have any impact on our climate at all. /s

But the main arguments being made for a solar-climate connection is not so much to do with the heat of the Sun (the sun isn't getting warmer) but rather with its magnetic cycles. When the Sun is more magnetically active (typically around the peak of the 11 year sunspot cycle --we are a couple of yrs away at the moment), the Sun's magnetic field is better able to deflect away incoming galactic cosmic rays (highly energetic charged particles coming from outside the solar system). The GCRs are thought to help in the formation of low-level cumulus clouds -the type of clouds that BLOCK sunlight and help cool the Earth. So when the Sun's MF is acting up (not like now -the next sunspot max is expected in about 2011 or 2012), less GCRs reach the Earth's atmosphere, less low level, sunlight-blocking clouds form, and more sunlight gets through to warm the Earth's surface...naturally. Clouds are basically made up of tiny water droplets. When minute particles in the atmosphere become ionized by incoming GCRs they become very 'attractive' to water molecules, in a purely chemical sense of the word. The process by which the Sun's increased magnetic field deflects incoming cosmic rays is very similar to the way magnetic fields steer electrons in a cathode ray tube (old-time television tube) or electrons and other charged particles around the ring of a subatomic particle accelerator.-etl
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There's an excellent new book out on the subject titled The Chilling Stars. It's written by one of the top scientists advancing this theory (Henrik Svensmark).

http://www.sciencedaily.com/books/t/1840468157-the_chilling_stars_the_new_theory_of_climate_change.htm
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And here is the website for the place where he does his research:
2008: "The Center for Sun-Climate Research at the DNSC investigates the connection between variations in the intensity of cosmic rays and climatic changes on Earth. This field of research has been given the name 'cosmoclimatology'"..."Cosmic ray intensities – and therefore cloudiness – keep changing because the Sun's magnetic field varies in its ability to repel cosmic rays coming from the Galaxy, before they can reach the Earth." :
http://www.spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate
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From a well-referenced wikipedia.com column (see wiki link for ref 14):
"Sunspot numbers over the past 11,400 years have been reconstructed using dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations. The level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional — the last period of similar magnitude occurred over 8,000 years ago. The Sun was at a similarly high level of magnetic activity for only ~10% of the past 11,400 years, and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode.[14]"

[14] ^Solanki, Sami K.; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kromer, Bernd; Schüssler, Manfred & Beer, Jürg (2004), “Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years”, Nature 431: 1084–1087, doi:10.1038/nature02995, . Retrieved on 17 April 2007 , "11,000 Year Sunspot Number Reconstruction". Global Change Master Directory. Retrieved on 2005-03-11.

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"Reconstruction of solar activity over 11,400 years. Period of equally high activity over 8,000 years ago marked.
Present period is on [the right]. Values since 1900 not shown."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation
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From NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory's "Not So Frequently Asked Questions" section:

Q-Does the number of sunspots have any effect on the climate here on Earth?

A-Sunspots are slightly cooler areas on the surface of the Sun, due to the intense magnetic fields, so they radiate a little less energy than the surroundings. However, there are usually nearby areas associated with the sunspots that are a little hotter (called falculae), and they more than compensate. The result is that there is a little bit more radiation coming from the Sun when it has more sunspots, but the effect is so small that it has very little impact on the weather and climate on Earth.

However, there are more important indirect effects: sunspots are associated with what we call "active regions", with large magnetic structures containing very hot material (being held in place by the magnetism). This causes more ultraviolet (or UV) radiation (the rays that give you a suntan or sunburn), and extreme ultraviolet radiation (EUV). These types of radiation have an impact on the chemistry of the upper atmosphere (e.g. producing ozone). Since some of these products act as greenhouse gases, the number of sunspots (through association with active regions) may influence the climate in this way.

Many active regions produce giant outflows of material that are called Coronal Mass Ejections. These ejections drag with them some of the more intense magnetic fields that are found in the active regions. The magnetic fields act as a shield for high-energy particles coming from various sources in our galaxy (outside the solar system). These "cosmic rays" (CRs) cause ionization of molecules in the atmosphere, and thereby can cause clouds to form (because the ionized molecules or dust particle can act as "seeds" for drop formation).

If clouds are formed very high in the atmosphere, the net result is a heating of the Earth - it acts as a "blanket" that keeps warmth in.

If clouds are formed lower down in the atmosphere, they reflect sunlight better than they keep heat inside, so the net result is cooling. Which processes are dominant is still a matter of research.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/classroom/notsofaq.html#SUNSPOT_CLIMATE
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NASA graph of sunspot activity over the past 400 years [note the profound lack of sunspot activity during the "Little Ice Age" period (apprx 1650-1720), AND the sharp INCREASE particularly during the past 60 years:

http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/images/ssn_yearly.jpg
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100,000-Year Climate Pattern Linked To Sun's Magnetic Cycles:

ScienceDaily (Jun. 7, 2002) HANOVER, N.H.
Thanks to new calculations by a Dartmouth geochemist, scientists are now looking at the earth's climate history in a new light. Mukul Sharma, Assistant Professor of Earth Sciences at Dartmouth, examined existing sets of geophysical data and noticed something remarkable: the sun's magnetic activity is varying in 100,000-year cycles, a much longer time span than previously thought, and this solar activity, in turn, may likely cause the 100,000-year climate cycles on earth. This research helps scientists understand past climate trends and prepare for future ones.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/06/020607073439.htm

**************************************** ****************************************

Solar/sunspot Cycle 24, which began in Jan 2008, is especially slow to get going with activity. In fact, 2008 had the most sunspot-free days of any year in the past 50.

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From NASA.gov, September 30, 2008:

Coinciding with the string of blank suns is a 50-year record low in solar wind pressure, a recent discovery of the Ulysses spacecraft. (See the Science@NASA story Solar Wind Loses Pressure.) The pressure drop began years before the current minimum, so it is unclear how the two phenomena are connected, if at all. This is another mystery for SDO and the others.

...

"There is also the matter of solar irradiance," adds Pesnell. "Researchers are now seeing the dimmest sun in their records. The change is small, just a fraction of a percent, but significant. Questions about effects on climate are natural if the sun continues to dim."

Article:
Spotless Sun: Blankest Year of the Space Age [50 years]

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Astronomers who count sunspots have announced that 2008 is now the "blankest year" of the Space Age

As of Sept. 27, 2008, the sun had been blank, i.e., had no visible sunspots, on 200 days of the year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1954, three years before the launch of Sputnik, when the sun was blank 241 times.

"Sunspot counts are at a 50-year low," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "We're experiencing a deep minimum of the solar cycle."

And it is a very quiet time. If solar activity continues as low as it has been, 2008 could rack up a whopping 290 spotless days by the end of December, making it a century-level year in terms of spotlessness.

Hathaway cautions that this development may sound more exciting than it actually is: "While the solar minimum of 2008 is shaping up to be the deepest of the Space Age, it is still unremarkable compared to the long and deep solar minima of the late 19th and early 20th centuries." Those earlier minima routinely racked up 200 to 300 spotless days per year.

Some solar physicists are welcoming the lull.

"This gives us a chance to study the sun without the complications of sunspots," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center. "Right now we have the best instrumentation in history looking at the sun. There is a whole fleet of spacecraft devoted to solar physics--SOHO, Hinode, ACE, STEREO and others. We're bound to learn new things during this long solar minimum."

As an example he offers helioseismology: "By monitoring the sun's vibrating surface, helioseismologists can probe the stellar interior in much the same way geologists use earthquakes to probe inside Earth. With sunspots out of the way, we gain a better view of the sun's subsurface winds and inner magnetic dynamo."

"There is also the matter of solar irradiance," adds Pesnell. "Researchers are now seeing the dimmest sun in their records. The change is small, just a fraction of a percent, but significant. Questions about effects on climate are natural if the sun continues to dim."

Pesnell is NASA's project scientist for the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), a new spacecraft equipped to study both solar irradiance and helioseismic waves. Construction of SDO is complete, he says, and it has passed pre-launch vibration and thermal testing. "We are ready to launch! Solar minimum is a great time to go."

Coinciding with the string of blank suns is a 50-year record low in solar wind pressure, a recent discovery of the Ulysses spacecraft. (See the Science@NASA story Solar Wind Loses Pressure.) The pressure drop began years before the current minimum, so it is unclear how the two phenomena are connected, if at all. This is another mystery for SDO and the others.

Who knew the blank sun could be so interesting?

More to come...

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/30sep_blankyear.htm

Related article:
Solar Wind Loses Power, Hits 50-year Low - Sept. 23, 2008
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/23sep_solarwind.htm

[ETL]

The most recent sunspots were from Cycle 23, and as long as that keeps happening Cycle 24 won't officially start.

Not true. Most of the rare sunspots of late were reversely magnetized (compared to SC 23) and upper latitude. ie: new cycle 'spots.

[PreciousLiberty]

“Are we looking at a cool summer?”

Compared to 1998 at any rate. ;-)

Remember that local variatibility can easily swamp even relatively large changes to the average. Your mileage may vary, past performance is no indication of future results, and this prediction carries no warranty.

There, you’ve now witnessed an honest climactic projection. ;-)

Seriously, though, it seems most of the uncooked data indicates a pretty sharp global cooling trend for the last six years, and the trend seems to be increasing.

[knarf]

We’re doomed if it don’t and doomed if it do.

[PreciousLiberty]

If you read this:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm

you’ll find that we’re still in the middle of the minimum. Solar Cycle 24 can’t be said to have started when sunspot counts are still dropping. See my comments regarding last year’s spotless day count, versus this year’s.

Saying when a new cycle started is really only possible in retrospect, and we’re clearly not there yet.

[ETL]

Solar Cycle 24 can’t be said to have started when sunspot counts are still dropping.

A new sunspot/solar cycle is determined by a reversal in the magnetic polarity of sunspot pairs, not the number of sunspots appearing.

"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2247604/posts?page=4#4

[GAB-1955]

You made a common mistake. Cycle 24 has started technically, in that there have been high-latitude sunspots with opposite polarity, but there weren't many of them. The solar physicist whose talk I attended this week thinks that the pattern isn't a Maunder Minimum, but something similar to the pattern that appeared at the turn of the last century.

He also noted that reduced solar power has only affected the climate by 0.3°C. That's still a significant reduction, in my opinion, since weather systems start and end in chaotic conditions.

[PreciousLiberty]

“You made a common mistake.”

Actually, no, since one refers to “being in cycle 23”, “being in the minimum”, and “being in cycle 24”. It is an important distinction, since during the big-M minima like the Maunder Minimum there were no “classic” cycles, but instead extended minima.

“Cycle 24 has started technically, in that there have been high-latitude sunspots with opposite polarity, but there weren’t many of them.”

Yes, Cycle 24 spots have appeared, but Cycle 23 spots also continue to appear. In fact, the last spot to be seen was a Cycle 23 spot. This is typical during a minimum.

“The solar physicist whose talk I attended this week thinks that the pattern isn’t a Maunder Minimum, but something similar to the pattern that appeared at the turn of the last century.”

That is a nice guess. We’ll see what the Sun actually does... :-)

“He also noted that reduced solar power has only affected the climate by 0.3°C. That’s still a significant reduction, in my opinion, since weather systems start and end in chaotic conditions.”

That is also a guess. Astronomy doesn’t monitor the entire solar spectrum, and many aspects of the Sun’s interaction with Earth aren’t well understood. Even estimating the amount reflected by clouds is tricky...how well is that tracked?

It isn’t thought that the change in radiance during even the Maunder Minimum was enough to change the climate so drastically, so there is likely another explanation. Reduced solar wind allowing more cosmic rays to seed clouds was proposed, but appears to not hold up under analysis. Still, there’s an awful lot we don’t know.

As you point out, there are sometimes sensitive dependencies on small changes.

[orlop9]

Is this the same NOAA that says our Red Snapper are near extinction? NOAA has become politicized and about as dependable as the local weatherman.

[djf]

Ever have a girlfriend who gets mad about something so she just sits there kinda fuming and won’t talk to you?

And you start to get real uneasy wonderin whats gonna happen when she finally says whatever it is..

Izzat whats going on here?

Is all hell gonna break loose?
Will we be lucky when it’s over if we still have all our body parts?

[PreciousLiberty]

“Not true. Most of the rare sunspots of late were reversely magnetized (compared to SC 23) and upper latitude. ie: new cycle ‘spots.”

You should understand why the first Cycle 24 spot appeared in 1/2008, but the May 8 article I linked (incorrectly) refers to the cycle starting in 12/2008.

The answer is that the cycle is said to have started when sunspot numbers start increasing, which hasn’t happened. In the charts you linked this corresponds to the sharp upward slope beginning each cycle. It isn’t happening for Cycle 24, the graphs are still flat, with a lttle noise here and there.

[Wuli]

The original article, plus posts #4 and #5 on this thread,

highlight facts that demonstrate the unscientific nature of the “man-made” “global warming” religion:

it’s scientific evidence is incomplete,

it’s scientific theory is incomplete,

even when dealing with the sun, it ignores and/or minimizes the effects of ALL energy sources from the sun, other than “sun light”;

in spite the fact that the earth-based historical record of “warming” most closely follows patterns suggesting increased “warming” solar affects from the solar “sunspot” cycle and the various alterations of solar output during the different periods of those cycles.

I think a simple human, rational test is possible, regarding ALL OF the “greenhouse affect”, but particularly with respect to ALL earth-based-chemical sources of that affect; without knowing “climate science” in particular.

“Insulation” may help your house retain heat in the winter, or help it deflect heat in the summer, but the “insulation” does not control either the heating or cooling cycle. The sun-cycles plus the thermostat on your heating/air-conditioning unit controls the timing, the periodicity, of the interior heating/cooling cycle, regardless of your insulation.

So too the earth’s “green house”. That “green house” may slightly moderate the ground-temperature effects of the earth’s controlling thermostat - the Sun, but that “green house” is not sufficient to CREATE a “warming cycle”, nor sufficient to vastly magnify a natural (solar-initiated) “warming cycle”, nor sufficient to prevent any massive “cooling cycle”, when the Sun’s cycles initiate them.

It’s the Sun, not the “green house”.

[ETL]

Yes, Cycle 24 spots have appeared, but Cycle 23 spots also continue to appear. In fact, the last spot to be seen was a Cycle 23 spot. This is typical during a minimum.

The last (probable) 'spots were of Cycle 24 (early May 2009). They let loose a coronal mass ejection (CME) on May 5th. Then, by the time they rotated toward Earth (yesterday, May 8th), quickly decayed.

"AROUND THE BEND: NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft is monitoring a pair of active regions hidden behind the sun's eastern limb. They are the bright "hot spots" in this photo taken by STEREO-B's extreme ultraviolet telescope just a few hours ago:

On May 5th and 6th, magnetic fields in the vicinity of these regions erupted, hurling at least three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) into space. Since then, no explosions have been observed. The sunspots probably located at the base of these active regions might be in decay--or they might be regrouping for a new round of CMEs. We'll find out when the sun's rotation turns the active zone toward Earth for a better view in the days ahead. Readers with solar telescopes should train their optics on the eastern limb.

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=08&month=05&year=2009
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"MAGNETIC FROTH: The farside sunspot that unleashed a powerful CME on May 5th is finally rotating into view. Except it is not a sunspot. The blast site appears to be in a state of decay with only some patches of bright magnetic froth marking where a sunspot group might have been:

Pete Lawrence took this picture yesterday from his backyard observatory in Selsey, UK. "I used a Calcium-K solar telescope [tuned to the purple glow of ionized calcium]," he says. Ca-K filters are sensitive to the magnetic froth that often surrounds sunspots and sunspot corpses.

According to NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft, which is stationed over the sun's eastern limb, another active region should emerge today. Will it be a genuine sunspot--or another corpse? Stay tuned.

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=05&year=2009
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Note the magnetic polarity of the sunspot pair in this 5/9/09 NASA/SOHO magnetogram (white on left, black on right, upper latitude = Cycle 24) -etl http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html

[ETL]

Related...

Be sure to check out the diagram below.

"Horace W. Babcock proposed in 1961 a qualitative model for the dynamics of the solar outer layers:

* The start of [a new solar] cycle begins with a well-established dipole field component aligned along the solar rotational axis. The field lines tend to be held by the highly conductive solar plasma of the solar surface.

* The solar surface plasma rotation rate is different at different latitudes, and the rotation rate is 20 percent faster at the equator than at the poles (one rotation every 27 days). Consequently, the magnetic field lines are wrapped by 20 percent every 27 days.

* After many rotations, the field lines become highly twisted and bundled, increasing their intensity, and the resulting buoyancy lifts the bundle to the solar surface, forming a bipolar field that appears as two spots, being kinks in the field lines.

* The sunspots result from the strong local magnetic fields in the solar surface that exclude the light-emitting solar plasma and appear as darkened spots on the solar surface.

* The leading spot of the bipolar field has the same polarity as the solar hemisphere, and the trailing spot is of opposite polarity. The leading spot of the bipolar field tends to migrate towards the equator, while the trailing spot of opposite polarity migrates towards the solar pole of the respective hemisphere with a resultant reduction of the solar dipole moment. This process of sunspot formation and migration continues until the solar dipole field reverses (after about 11 years).

* The solar dipole field, through similar processes, reverses again at the end of the 22-year cycle.

* The magnetic field of the spot at the equator sometimes weakens, allowing an influx of coronal plasma that increases the internal pressure and forms a magnetic bubble which may burst and produce an ejection of coronal mass, leaving a coronal hole with open field lines. Such a coronal mass ejections are a source of the high-speed solar wind.

* The fluctuations in the bundled fields convert magnetic field energy into plasma heating, producing emission of electromagnetic radiation as intense ultraviolet (UV) and X-rays."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babcock_Model
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"Different parts of the Sun rotate at different speeds. The Sun's equator spins fastest, and the poles spin more slowly. This causes the Sun's magnetic field to get all tangled up over time. Loops in the tangled magnetic field poke through the Sun's surface sometimes. When they do, they make sunspots."
Windows to the Universe original artwork.

http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/sun/Solar_interior/Sun_layers/differential_rotation.html
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From March of 2008...

"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot. High latitude refers to the Sun's grid of latitude and longitude; old sunspots congregate near the Sun's equator and new sunspots appear higher, at around 25-30 degrees latitude. Reversed polarity means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle, such as the one detected on the 4 January this year. However, Solar Cycle 23 has not yet ended, and it may run concurrently with the new cycle for up to a year while sunspots from the old cycle become less numerous."

http://www.astronomynow.com/news/080304solarcycle/
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"The physical basis of the solar cycle was elucidated in the early twentieth century by George Ellery Hale and collaborators, who in 1908 showed that sunspots were strongly magnetized (this was the first detection of magnetic fields outside the Earth), and in 1919 went on to show that the magnetic polarity of sunspot pairs:

* Is always the same in a given solar hemisphere throughout a given sunspot cycle;

* Is opposite across hemispheres throughout a cycle;

* Reverses itself in both hemispheres from one sunspot cycle to the next.

Hale's observations revealed that the solar cycle is a magnetic cycle with an average duration of 22 years. However, because very nearly all manifestations of the solar cycle are insensitive to magnetic polarity, it remains common usage to speak of the "11-year solar cycle". ..."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle

[PreciousLiberty]

“The last (probable) ‘spots were of Cycle 24 (early May 2009). They let loose a coronal mass ejection (CME) on May 5th. Then, by the time they rotated toward Earth (yesterday, May 8th), quickly decayed.”

“Probable” spots don’t count in the official record. The last observed spot was Cycle 23.

Even if we eventually have spacecraft that observe the entire other side of the Sun, the “official sunspot count” will only reflect those observable from Earth, maintaining continuity with historical records.

[Vince Ferrer]

Even so, Earth could get hit by a devastating solar storm at any time, with potential damages from the most severe level of storm exceeding $1 trillion. NASA funds the prediction panel.

Budget season, is it?