Posted on 05/28/2009 5:34:54 PM PDT by xzins
You folks are forgetting all of NK chemical and bio weapons. If they come hard that will be first.
Yes I know that’s what I really meant - meaning, it’d be VERY expensive, question is how many could the area aerial bombardment kill and whether it could kill them as fast as the new ones were being pushed down. I think the attrition that would be forced on them would make them think twice as if they lose the force and cannot defend anymore the regime would fall (and that is the only thing they care about).
I wasn’t trying to be argumentative with Non-Sequitur. I just don’t really know how China would react.
I agree that China would love to see the U.S. bogged down, or humiliated.
Your comments here sound reasoned to me. I can see something like that happening.
Just to be clear, North Korea is absolutely bat-crap crazy and everything I said could be complete rubbish. Basing any possible plan on the possible action of the schizophrenic PRNK regime really is pure folly.
That's why I said it's been war-gamed seven ways to Sunday. Everyone who's graduated from the service academies plus everyone with at least one star on their collar thinks they know exactly what NK would do - and they all think something slightly different.
There's just as much of a chance that the PRNK drops some chemical agent on Seoul and we retaliate with nukes. It could happen.
I’m doubtful that they could without direct assistant from China, and then maybe not. Still, they may be just as happy with taking as many casualties as required and doing as much damage as possible. These guys are fanatics.
Me neither. I just think it’s an interesting topic.
“I think the attrition that would be forced on them would make them think twice as if they lose the force and cannot defend anymore the regime would fall (and that is the only thing they care about).”
They’ll just use the same tactics the Russians did, shoot the ones that turn around.
North Korea, Venezuela and Iran are allied against us, and know they can squeeze us with oil.
If they move against us, all hell could break loose domestically with respect to oil prices.
Couple that with a socialist American government, an overextended underfunded military, and a basic lack of will to fight and die to protect a bunch of Kimchee eating MF's and I'd say it's pretty much a no brainer that North Korea will make their move.
They will NEVER have a better opportunity.
But I have heard rumors that we (South Korea and the US) have plans for that also.
Again, massive casualties in the first wave. Big hurt for the North soon after.
And remember, Russia is building up troops on the NK border. They are not real good friends, and have no desire to see a nuclear war in their (Russia's) back forty.
China has more in trade each year with the South that the entire GDP of the north. Even worse, if China jumped in on the side of the North, they kiss the USA and their whole economy goodbye. Speaking of GDP, the North has one of about 25 billion. The South has one about 35 times as big. The south spends 3 times as much on a modern military of 700,000 active duty. And they are buying modern stuff. The North has about 25 million population, the South, 48 million.
Also, the north is one of the few nations still operating MiG-17 and MiG-19s. The South has F-16s and F-15s. We do too, and we also bring F-22s, and B-2 bombers to the party.
This time it wouldn’t be Russian pilots in the newest possible MiGs shocking the world, and endless human waves of Chinese.
All the North could do is one big attack, wipe out Seoul then watch their Air force wiped out in 2 days, and their tanks and logistical tail look like the Iraqi highway of death. They also had another advantage in 1950, surprise. We had a small occupation force there, but in no way expected a war. We were simply caught flat footed with a tiny US force, and almost no ROK force at all.
And a reminder, they have put together 2 nuclear “devices” in a hole. Both were incomplete detonations. We have NO evidence they have even had a successful FISSION device, much less a DELIVERABLE fission bomb. Thats a *very* different animal and technical problem. A miniaturized one is yet another big technical problem. All a nuke does for him is protect him from the Saddam hanging treatment. He becomes invasion-proof.
Last, North Korea is utterly and hopelessly dependent on the South for food, fertilizer, fuel, and cash.
This entire thing is yet another show. He knows Obama is weak and is predisposed to send Hillary to do the Albright routine, and leave him with food, fuel and cash from the US taxpayer.
The proper way to measure the yield of a North Korean nuke, is in US Dollars, not kilotons.
Berlin 1945 comes to mind for some reason.
Considering that the SK’s have 600,000+ under arms, and we only have a token force of about 25,000, the SK’s wouldn’t have a choice but to fight. Additionally, we already have sizable forces deployed and/or in the field in Iraq and Afghanistan. While their skills and excellence in battle are without question, they have been spread too thin for too long. Another major conflagration might bring our forces to the logistical breaking point — if not to a psychological one.
Also, in any reopening to the Korean Conflict, NK would immediately go for Seoul. It’s close, and even if their conventional forces couldn’t reach it via invasion, they could and very probably would attack it immediately with a major missile barrage — perhaps even a nuke or two. They would figure they have little to lose at that point. And, Kim and all the important NK’s would be deep underground in bunkers they’ve had 50+ years to build.
Then, we have to consider WHO would be our Commander-in-Chief. Barack Obama has no military experience, and he does not philosophically agree with “war,” nor does he generally see it as a necessity. Believing that he is capable of fixing any problem through diplomacy by deploying his irresistible charm and personal self assurance might work on weak-kneed Republican’s in Washington, but Kim Jong-Il (not to mention Mahmoud Ahmadenijad, Hugo Chavez, and Fidel Castro just to name a few) would eat him for breakfast.
Frankly, though, what bothers me more is the (tin foil hat alert) possibility that tying up our military forces overseas in engagements is part of the agenda. Tie up your forces dealing with numerous foreign battles in different locations — and viola! this produces the need for a domestic Civilian National Security Force! And of course, during wartime with ALL the domestic, economic and foreign crises, well, it’s time for the ACORN stormtroopers to “oversee” security and “detain” those suspected of anti-government activities.... A stretch? Hmmmm....
Finally, if Korea explodes into war, and with us already tied down in Iraq & Afghanistan, where’s the next domino to fall? Which despot will try to grab what he wants while we are “distracted?” Would Iran up the ante via it’s Lebanese based proxy Hezbollah, attacking Israel? Would they make a move against our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf? How about the Central/South American option? Would Cuba and Venezuela, via their proxies attempt to grab weak democracies through insurgencies or invasions? Could they destablize the already weak Mexico? Would Russia go after Georgia again — or the Ukraine? Or would China finally attempt to retake Taiwan, whom we’ve promised to defend should that eventuality occur?
The Korean situation could very easily bring about a downward spiral into global chaos, given the current economic and foreign relations crises at present. The steady hand of a principled leader who trusts in something larger than himself would be welcome. But we don’t have that. We are indeed more vulnerable and endangered than at any other point in my lifetime — including the Cold War.
” But I have heard rumors that we (South Korea and the US) have plans for that also.”
I’ve been there, the big plans consist of putting your gear on. From my time there 20% of the people won’t be able to find their gear or never got it due to supply shortages. Another 40% don’t know how to wear it.
95% of the dang boots will fall off anyway so it doesn’t matter.
As a practical matter, I don’t think the US would come to the aid of SK. Sad, but true.
[They will NEVER have a better opportunity.]
That’s for sure!
Isn’t it interesting that we kind of go at each other here based on what would happen, and the intellectuals who know it better than any of us also have differing opinions?
I also believe the PRNK leadership is batty. What person in their right mind would push the buttons of a super-power like this nation does? Sooner or later it’s going to get the crap kicked out of it.
I’m open to just about any scenario.
I agree. It is.
Gen . Douglas MacArthur and George Patton were right....
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